Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率 33.0%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 67.0%。 美联储到 11 月累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 19.3%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 52.9%，累计降息 100 个基点的概率为 27.8%。

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率 33.0%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 67.0%。美联储到 11 月累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 19.3%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 52.9%，累计降息 100 个基点的概率为 27.8%。

CME“美联储观察”：美联储本周降息50个基点概率高于25个基点

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 33.0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 67.0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 52.9%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 27.8%.

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Odaily Watch&quot;, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 33.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 67.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 52.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 27.8%.

CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is higher than 25 basis points

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

Odaily reported that Mitsubishi UFJ stated that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the US dollar will find it difficult to achieve a sustained recovery. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group analyst Lee Hardman said in a report that even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, it may further cut rates in future meetings, especially if the labor market continues to remain weak. He said this means "people may still believe that it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve needs to accelerate the pace of rate cuts."

MUFG: The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut this week will hardly boost the dollar

The market was relatively stable for most of last week, but by Friday, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September suddenly surged from around 15% to about 50%, and there was almost no clear news to explain this change. The economic data was largely in line with expectations and was not a factor, and the Federal Reserve was still in a silent period, which led market participants to speculate that this repricing may have been triggered by comments from former Federal Reserve officials and journalists...