1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
lUS stock market rebound failed
A series of economic data released by the United States on Wednesday added signs of economic slowdown, exacerbating concerns about a potential recession. First, the U.S. trade deficit continues to expand. The trade deficit in goods and services increased by 7.9% month-on-month in July. Analysts said that trade may once again drag down GDP growth in the third quarter by 0.35%. Second, the number of JOLTS job vacancies in the United States in July was 7.673 million, far below the expected 8.1 million, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, and the number of layoffs rose to 1.76 million, the highest level since March 2023, adding signs of a cooling labor market. The major U.S. stock indexes opened low and rose in the morning, and once turned to rise across the board, and then fell again in the afternoon. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely closed higher. After falling more than 1%, the chip index once rose 1.8%, and finally closed up 0.3%, and the "fear index" VIX rose.
Expectations of rate cuts strengthen
The Beige Book of economic conditions released by the Federal Reserve was not optimistic about the overall assessment of the economy. The number of regions with flat or declining economic activity increased from 5 in July to 9, and consumer spending slowed in most regions. The labor market was mixed. The uncertainty of the economic outlook made companies reluctant to recruit more employees, but layoffs were still rare. Bostic, a 2024 voting member and president of the Atlanta Fed, said that there was more confidence that the inflation rate would fall back to the 2% target in a sustainable manner, and officials could not wait for US inflation to fall back to 2% before cutting interest rates.
Expectations for rate cuts have increased significantly. The CME Fed Watch tool shows that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen from 38% on Tuesday to 45%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has fallen back to 55%. After the data was released, "risk-off trading" rose, and the major US stock indexes failed to rebound during the session and continued to fall at the close. The US dollar index DXY and US Treasury yields plunged during the day, the Japanese yen significantly outperformed the market, and the Swiss franc and the euro also rose. The safe-haven demand caused the gold price to rise slightly during the session and re-entered $2,500. The "pessimistic expectations" for the US economic outlook were bearish for oil demand, suppressing US oil prices, which once fell by nearly 2.2% and fell below $70.
Figure 1: After the JOLTS data shock, the probability of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September rose to 50%
Source: Wall Street Journal, Dot Labs
(2) Web3 field:
ETH ETF’s daily outflow was $37.5 million
As of Farside’s data on September 4, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day outflow of US$37.29 million, and its current total net asset value is US$52.63 billion.
Glassnode : Market is expected to weaken further
According to the latest analysis report released by Glassnode, despite the increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin in the past six months, the total unrealized losses accounted for only 2.9% of Bitcoin's market value, which is at a historical low. This shows that even in the face of continued price declines, investors as a whole can still obtain relatively favorable profits. However, when the analysis scope is limited to short-term investors, it is found that their unrealized losses have increased rapidly in the past few months, indicating that they are the most vulnerable group at present and will be the main source of selling pressure when the market falls. But so far, the scale of unrealized losses of short-term investors relative to market value has not entered the full bear market area. At the same time, the MVRV ratio of short-term holders has fallen below the break-even value of 1.0. This shows that the average position of new investors is in a floating loss state. In this regard, Glassnode analysts concluded: This tells us that new investors hold unrealized losses on average. Generally speaking, the market is expected to weaken further before the spot price recovers the STH cost basis of $62,400.
Source: Glassnode, Dot Labs
2. Hot events
Web3 Field:
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed charges and reached a settlement with Uniswap Labs, the developer of the decentralized exchange Uniswap. Uniswap Labs was fined $175,000 for providing "illegal digital asset derivative commodity transactions."
On September 5, CoinDesk reported that Robinhood’s cryptocurrency trading subsidiary had prevented customers from withdrawing the tokens they purchased in the past. Although Robinhood Crypto LLC abandoned the policy in 2022, its past practices were fined $3.9 million by the State of California.
The California Department of Justice investigated Robinhood's "historical practices" in its crypto business between 2018 and 2022. According to a press release from the California Department of Justice, Robinhood allowed customers to purchase cryptocurrencies but did not allow them to personally custody the assets, which violated the California Commodity Law. Under the settlement, Robinhood must continue to allow its customers to withdraw cryptocurrencies from the app and update disclosures about its custody practices.
3. Hot topic narrative
Grass is a decentralized bandwidth market where users can help AI labs obtain network data for training models by selling their idle Internet connections. Grass uses users' IP addresses to sell excess bandwidth, thereby bypassing the restrictions on data center IP addresses imposed by many websites. The entire process is anonymous and 100% private, ensuring user privacy and data security.
This collected bandwidth is used to extract raw data from the network and convert it into AI datasets. These datasets are very useful for AI developers and researchers who need a lot of training data. The core technology of Grass is Socrates, developed by Wynd Labs, an AI development tool that excels at collecting unstructured data from the network and structuring it for easy reading. As a result, Grass becomes an AI data warehouse, providing other AI systems with the data needed for model training.
Grass is the first project deployed on Solana that combines AI, Depin, and Solana technologies, and is positioned as the data layer for AI. The AI data layer is a critical starting point in the development of artificial intelligence, responsible for the collection and preparation of data to provide a foundation for model training. In the field of AI, the quality of data is critical because the ability of the model depends entirely on the correlations and patterns in the training data. Even the most advanced AI models will lead to inaccurate predictions if their training data is biased or of poor quality.
In addition, in the integration of AI and Web3, data, as a core component, together with computing resources, constitutes a key resource in AI competition. Although most of the industry's attention is focused on the computing level, the raw data in the data acquisition process provides many interesting value directions, mainly including access to public Internet data and data protection.
Accessing public Internet data: This direction aims to build a distributed crawler network that can crawl the entire Internet in a few days, obtain massive data sets, or access very specific Internet data in real time. However, to crawl large data sets on the Internet, the network requirements are very high, and at least a few hundred nodes are required to start some meaningful work. Fortunately, Grass has built a distributed crawler network with more than 2 million nodes, actively sharing Internet bandwidth with the goal of crawling the entire Internet. This shows the great potential of economic incentives in attracting valuable resources.
4. Potential Catalyst
According to Mars Finance, on September 5, Etheism, a new token protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem, released the token E. The current price is $4,426, with an increase of 80,299% in the 7 hours since its launch, and the transaction volume is $9.6 million.
On September 5, according to market information, the token FARM of TaxFarm.ing, a new token issuance platform in the Ethereum ecosystem, was quoted at $0.0039 5 hours after its launch, and its price has risen by more than 214% in the past hour.
According to ChainCatcher, according to RootData data, the Ethervista token (VISTA) rose by 129.47% in 24 hours and is now trading at $30.43. According to RootData, a Web3 asset data platform, Ethervista is a decentralized trading platform that supports a 5-day lock-in of the initial liquidity provided by the pool creator. Ethervista also provides smart contract customization, allowing creators to manage fees and integrate various DeFi applications such as staking or automatic purchases.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
The Ethereum ecosystem is a decentralized platform that supports the development of smart contracts and DApps. There are more than 1,400 projects in the Ethereum ecosystem, which can be mainly divided into DeFi, NFT, GameFi, infrastructure, and development tools. DeFi is the largest project category on Ethereum. According to DeFiLlama data, Ethereum's DeFi project TVL exceeds US$25 billion, with a daily transaction volume of more than US$1 billion and approximately 300,000 active user addresses; as of July 2024, the amount of Ethereum staked has increased from 25 million ETH in 2023 to 33.7 million ETH, which shows that the community has increased confidence in the Ethereum network, especially after the transition to the Proof of Stake mechanism, with staked ETH accounting for 28.28% of the total supply. Overall, the Ethereum ecosystem will continue to attract the attention of investors and developers in 2024.
Key projects:
$WELL
WELL3 is a Web3 health platform that revolutionizes health data management by leveraging the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) and Decentralized Identity (DID), along with sophisticated AI analytics, to transform health data into valuable rewards.
The recent things worth noting about WELL3 are the resubmission and approval of the MIP-B23 and MIP-O02 proposals, which may have a positive impact on prices. Recently, people are optimistic about WELL3, believing that its airdrop plan for community incentives, reducing selling pressure and increasing stickiness is excellent, and market sentiment is relatively optimistic. WELL3 is building a dynamic ecosystem that provides real value to users, which will be the key to its long-term development.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. BANANA (@BananaGunBot /X)
Banana Gun is a Telegram bot that can snipe upcoming tokens, or safely buy tokens that are already live. BANANA aims to make users the preferred sniper/manual buyer on the Ethereum network, and may gain more chains in the process. BANANA has a best-performing Anti Rug & Reorg Protection system, ensuring safer transactions and reducing the risk of users being scammed, with a success rate of 85%, providing first-class security.
2. HUSBY (@HusbyApp /X)
HUSBY is at the forefront of revolutionizing the cryptocurrency mining industry using biogas energy and advanced AI technology, aiming to provide a cost-effective and environmentally friendly solution for crypto mining. HUSBY uses biogas energy to generate electricity, coupled with the implementation of advanced AI algorithms, which greatly reduces electricity costs, improves the profitability of mining, significantly reduces carbon emissions and promotes sustainable development.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. EBULL (@EthBullToken /X)
$EBUL is a memecoin built on Ethereum, released and brought to life by Vitalik - the official bull of Ethereum. Following his principles and beliefs about what a meme should look like, Vitalik Buterin holds 1.5% of the token supply. No fancy utilities here, just a wild ride on a simple token market.
2. ZOAI (@zenoaiofficial /X)
Zeno AI is built a little differently. Instead of using ChatGPT, they use zero-error enhanced neural orchestration to combine AI with a deep understanding of the crypto market to provide an exceptional investment partner. Zeno AI aims to provide every cryptocurrency trader with the insights they need. With the proprietary PACF model (partial autocorrelation function), it changes the way traders approach the market and turns raw data into actionable strategies.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
