Despite the anticipation surrounding the 2024 Solana Breakpoint Conference, Solana's price (SOL) is struggling to keep pace with Bitcoin (BTC). This is particularly surprising for Solana supporters, who had hoped the event would generate interest and drive a price surge.
This analysis explores the factors contributing to Solana's underperformance and examines the token's outlook before and after the breakpoint event.
Solana Chases Bitcoin, but the Risks of Following Ethereum
On July 29th, the SOL/BTC pair reached a quarterly high of 0.0021, with Solana trading at $194 and Bitcoin trading at over $70,000. The SOL/BTC pair measures how closely Solana reflects Bitcoin's price. A rise in this value indicates Solana is outperforming Bitcoin, while a fall suggests Bitcoin is gaining the upper hand.
Despite a resurgence in late August, the daily chart shows a 13% decline from its peak, reaching a value of 0.0021. This decline highlights Solana's underperformance against BTC in recent months, despite Bitcoin's volatility.
Read more: 6 Best Platforms to Buy Solana (SOL) in 2024
In a previous analysis, BeInCrypto explained that the Solana breakpoint acted as a bullish catalyst for SOL's price. However, recent data suggests that this performance may not be repeated.
Prominent cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen supports this view. According to Cowen, SOL/BTC could follow the same pattern as ETH/BTC, which has recently shown weakness.
“While SOL maximalists are busy mocking ETH, SOL/BTC is simply following ETH/BTC,” Cowen said .
SOL Price Forecast: Downtrend Likely to Continue
On the daily timeframe, Solana's price fell below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). Two days ago, the price was above the midpoint. Had it remained above that level, the price would have been more likely to rise.
The BB also measures volatility, which is important in determining whether prices are likely to rise or fall rapidly. As the bands expand, increasing buying pressure suggests a significant uptrend. However, increasing selling pressure could lead to a significant downtrend.
For SOL, the BB is contracting, so there may be no significant movement in the short term. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency may face resistance near $150, which recently became a retracement point.
Read more: Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
If SOL fails to break above $150, the price could decline. In this case, the token could fall below the $125 support level.
However, with the onset of Solana Breakpoint 2024, increasing buying pressure on SOL could trigger an upward breakout. This could push the price of SOL to the $180 area before the event concludes.
