Trump’s love affair with Bitcoin

On September 15, the Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump narrowly escaped another assassination attempt. This is the second failed assassination attempt on Trump in just two months. On July 13, Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, injuring his right ear. Since Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election on July 21, Trump's competitor has shifted from the 81-year-old Biden to the much younger and more vibrant Harris, whose rising approval ratings have made the once seemingly stable situation more uncertain. To gain more support, Trump has been quick to court the crypto industry. At the Bitcoin conference on July 27, Trump stated that if elected again, he will fully support the development of cryptocurrencies and strive to make the US a "Bitcoin superpower". Without commenting on the credibility of Trump's Bitcoin conference promises, he has indeed made many commitments to attract crypto voters. How has Trump's attitude towards the crypto industry evolved from negative to positive, and what potential impacts might this bring? 01 Trump's "Flip-Flop" on Crypto Assets Born on June 14, 1946, in New York City, Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and is the son of real estate developer Fred Trump. Leveraging the family business, Trump accumulated considerable wealth and fame in the 1970s and 1980s, with assets including the real estate market in New York City and various business projects, such as Trump Tower and several luxury hotels and casinos. Later, Trump gained further fame as the host of the NBC reality show "The Apprentice", where he cultivated a public image as a "savvy businessman". In 2015, Trump officially announced his candidacy as a Republican presidential candidate for the 2016 US presidential election, and in November 2016, he successfully defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to become the 45th President of the United States. 1) From Crypto Critic to Supporter During Trump's presidency (January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2021), his overall attitude towards crypto assets was generally negative. His early stance on crypto can be traced back to July 2019, when he first publicly criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets on Twitter, clearly stating that he was not a "fan" of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, criticizing Bitcoin as not being a real currency, and expressing concerns about its "extreme volatility" and being "based on thin air", saying he would not be surprised if it fell below $6,000. Furthermore, he expressed concerns about the potential use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for illegal activities, such as drug trafficking and other illicit behavior. Regarding Facebook's planned digital currency Libra (now called Diem) in 2020, Trump criticized it on Twitter, stating that the US only has one real currency, the US dollar, and any other cryptocurrency attempting to replace the dollar should be subject to strict regulation. He believed that only a regulated financial system based on "strong" national currencies like the dollar could guarantee stability and security. During Trump's presidency, his administration also adopted a relatively conservative and strict policy stance towards crypto assets: Anti-money laundering and terrorism financing: The Trump administration's main concerns about crypto were its potential for illegal uses, including money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing. The Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) strengthened the regulation of crypto asset transactions and required crypto trading platforms to comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) requirements. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also repeatedly emphasized that crypto assets pose a threat to national security and require stronger regulation. Securities regulation: Under Trump's leadership, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continued to crack down harshly on unregistered crypto asset securities offerings. The SEC initiated enforcement actions against multiple ICO projects, alleging that they failed to register their securities sales. Additionally, the Trump administration also increased scrutiny of crypto trading platforms to ensure compliance with existing securities laws. Homeland security and law enforcement actions: During Trump's presidency, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) also increased monitoring of crypto assets to combat cybercrime and illegal activities. The Trump administration repeatedly emphasized that the use of crypto assets for illegal activities (such as drug trafficking, cyber-attacks, etc.) poses a major threat to national security. Overall, Trump's early statements reflect his high degree of skepticism and negative attitude towards crypto assets. 2) From Critic to Supporter After leaving office, Trump has also criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets in media interviews, believing that these digital assets could potentially disrupt the US financial system and national security. However, he has also acknowledged the rapid growth of the crypto market, mentioning that the government should take measures to strengthen the regulation of crypto assets to prevent their use for illegal activities. This tone is more moderate compared to his opposition during his presidency, also indicating his attention to this field: Softening Stance In a 2021 interview with Fox Business, Trump said he hates Bitcoin because it competes with the US dollar, viewing it as a "competing currency", and wanting the dollar to be the "world's currency". He also believed they could facilitate criminal activities and emphasized that the government should regulate them more strictly. In an interview with One America News, Trump stated that crypto assets are a "dangerous investment" and warned investors to be cautious. Shift in Position According to related news, Trump announced his intention to run for president again in 2024 on November 15, 2022. Subsequently, leveraging his personal brand and influence, Trump has launched a series of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) featuring his own image, marking his entry into the crypto asset and digital collectibles market: In December 2022, Trump launched his first NFT collection, totaling 45,000 pieces, each priced at $99. These NFTs depict various virtual representations of Trump, such as superheroes and historical figures, signaling his official foray into the crypto market. In June 2023, he released a second NFT series, continuing to feature Trump's own image as the core, but with additional designs and themes, as well as the introduction of some rare versions. In March 2024, the third NFT series was launched, once again emphasizing scarcity and limited edition characteristics, while also providing more interactive opportunities, such as virtual event tickets and the chance to meet Trump online.

When launching Non-Fungible Tokens, Trump referred to them as "precious collectibles". He acknowledged the uniqueness and scarcity of Non-Fungible Tokens, and used this opportunity to attract the attention of supporters and investors, while also providing fans with a new way to interact with him. Additionally, in a July 16 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, he stated that he will soon launch a fourth Non-Fungible Token series featuring his own image.

• Campaigning

In 2024, Trump has been frequently appearing in the crypto sphere, publicly making pro-crypto statements on multiple occasions. However, before exploring the reasons behind this, we need to understand the US presidential election system. The US presidential election (also known as the US general election) is held every four years and consists of five steps: primaries, national conventions, the general election, the Electoral College vote, and Congressional confirmation. Primaries: From mid-January to June 2024, the Republican and Democratic parties will use primaries or caucuses in each state to select the party's candidate for that state. National Conventions: The Republican National Convention will be held on July 15-18, 2024, and the Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19-22, 2024. Each party will select its presidential candidate and officially announce the vice presidential running mate. General Election: The general election will be held on November 5, 2024, and citizens can vote for any presidential candidate, regardless of their own party affiliation, primary participation, or previous votes. Electoral College Vote: The US presidential election uses the Electoral College system, where each state is allocated a number of electors based on population. The candidate who wins the popular vote in a state typically receives all of that state's electoral votes. The candidate who reaches 270 or more electoral votes wins the presidency. The Electoral College vote will take place on December 17, and the electoral votes will be certified by Congress before January 3, 2025. Congressional Confirmation: According to federal law, Congress must hold a joint session on January 6, 2025, to count and declare the Electoral College results. The winner will be inaugurated as president on January 20, 2025, at the US Capitol. This explains why, in all the presidential campaign activities so far in 2024, Trump has been frequently making numerous pro-crypto development promises. As a candidate, he has already started accepting crypto asset donations early this year and attended the July 27 Bitcoin 2024 conference, where he delivered a speech. His specific statements and promises regarding Bitcoin or crypto assets include: A. Bitcoin has developed independently, and more and more people want to use Bitcoin for payments. He is also preparing to accept Bitcoin, but some regulation is needed. B. If elected president again, his administration will not use regulatory agencies to crack down on the use of Bitcoin or other crypto assets. He stated that he hopes US crypto companies will not be driven overseas. C. If elected again, he will commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and firmly support the development of the crypto industry. D. At the Bitcoin conference, he proposed creating a national Bitcoin reserve, establishing a Bitcoin and crypto asset advisory council to support the industry's development. He also stated that if elected, he will fire the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler to end his "persecution" of the crypto industry. E. He will ensure all Bitcoin jobs in the US during his presidency to promote innovation and economic growth, and will never allow the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). F. In an interview, Trump mentioned that Bitcoin mining may be the last line of defense against CBDCs, and he hopes Bitcoin will be made in America to help achieve energy dominance. G. Crypto assets will not disappear, and the US crypto industry has a solid foundation, but it is still in the early stages. He emphasized that he does not want other countries to dominate this field. H. He is about to formulate a relevant plan to make the US the "global capital of crypto assets". Additionally, in February, Trump's campaign team announced that it would accept crypto asset donations, and supporters can donate any crypto asset through the Coinbase Commerce product. A crypto assistant for Trump's campaign revealed that he had inquired about using Bitcoin to address the US national debt. On September 16, Trump and his son also announced the creation of a new crypto platform called World Liberty Financial, aiming to become a DeFi platform providing lending, digital asset storage, and other services. As the US election (early November) approaches, it is clear that Trump's attitude towards crypto has shifted from skepticism and opposition to acceptance and support. This is because he has gradually recognized the importance of crypto assets in the political, economic, and technological spheres, and has incorporated them into his political strategy, proposing multiple policies and suggestions to support the development of the crypto industry. Trump's pro-crypto stance has indeed attracted the support of some Republican voters and crypto industry supporters. His campaign has also received significant financial support from the crypto industry, indicating that he may further promote the development of the crypto industry in the future. Trump's comments on crypto assets have also had some impact on the industry. In May, after Trump made comments on crypto assets, the meme coin MAGA (TRUMP) based on Trump surged 78% on May 9. Additionally, during Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference, the crypto market experienced significant volatility. Bitcoin price first fell $1,200, dropping below $67,000, but then quickly rebounded to over $69,000, approaching the $70,000 high seen in March this year. In summary, to gain more support from crypto voters, Trump has repeatedly emphasized that if he is re-elected as president, he will adopt a more relaxed crypto policy, support the establishment of a clear regulatory framework, set up a Bitcoin and crypto advisory council to develop transparent regulatory guidelines, and oppose the establishment of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This includes firing the current SEC chairman to end the "persecution" of the crypto industry, and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to enhance the US's global leadership in digital finance. However, there is no free lunch in the world. Trump's shift in attitude from "crypto aversion" to "crypto-friendly", from calling Bitcoin a scam to seeing it as a technological innovation, is directly aimed at gaining the support of crypto leaders and their mobilized political power. The organizer of the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey, has promised to raise $100 million in donations for Trump and mobilize over 5 million voters to support him. Although this may be a negotiation tactic for a business partnership, the scale of the Bitcoin conference itself shows the undeniable political power of crypto, especially among young people and minorities, who are the main supporters of crypto and also the voter base that Trump urgently needs to win over, which is also the important support base of the Democratic Party. Therefore, whether it is fundraising or votes, Trump's clear stance is one of his strategies to seize the initiative, attack his opponents, and gain the support of crypto voters. This will also prompt his opponents to adopt more friendly policies in response. Prominent investor and crypto supporter Mark Cuban has stated that Harris' advisory team has consulted him on crypto industry issues, and on September 22, Harris publicly expressed support for increased investment in the AI and crypto industries. It can be said that, regardless of who wins the election in the future, the importance of crypto voters in the US election is increasing, which will further promote the compliant development of the crypto industry. Within the framework of national security and financial stability, more friendly crypto policies will be advanced to a certain extent.