The prediction market has seen significant development in the third quarter of 2024, driven by bets surrounding the upcoming US presidential election, which could have widespread implications for cryptocurrency regulation.
The trading volume on the prediction market increased by more than 565.4% in Q3, reaching $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter of 2024.
The significant growth in the prediction market volume was largely due to the increase in bets on the outcome of the US elections, according to the CoinGecko report on October 14, which stated:
The prediction market accelerated in Q3 2024, growing 565.4% as experts staked on the upcoming US election.
Top 3 cryptocurrency prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko
Decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate in predicting the outcome of the 2024 US election compared to traditional polls, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of a specific event.
Polymarket dominates the market with 99% share
Polymarket, the largest decentralized platform, dominates the market with over 99% market share as of September 2024.
More than 46% of Polymarket's year-to-date (YTD) volume was from the US presidential election polls, according to the CoinGecko report, which further stated:
"There has been $1.7 billion in bets placed on the 'Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election' since the start of 2024, accounting for around 46% of Polymarket's annual volume."
Polymarket TVL, year-to-date. Source: defillama
Polymarket's staking volume increased by 713%, while the number of transactions grew by 848% in the third quarter of 2024.
At the time of reporting, Polymarket held over $172 million in TVL, according to data from defillama.
Former President Trump leads Harris on Polymarket
Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by eight points on Polymarket.
According to data from Polymarket, former President Trump has a 53.8% chance of winning the election, while only 45.3% of Polymarket users are staking on Harris.
Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election. Source: Polymarket
The betting odds have shifted in favor of Trump on October 4, marking a strong turnaround from September. As of October 12, Trump is leading by more than 10 points, TinTucBitcoin reported.
US Election, Trump, and Macroeconomics: Impact on Cryptocurrencies. Source: YouTube
