As the uncertainty in the global economic situation continues to intensify, investors' attention has once again focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 87.7%, while the possibility of maintaining the current interest rate remains at only 12.3%. Looking ahead to December, the market believes the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.7%, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is as high as 79.1%, and the possibility of a 75 basis point rate cut is 0%. The adjustment of these policies has to some extent affected the performance of the cryptocurrency market, especially the major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Market Performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum
From a technical analysis perspective, the monthly indicators of Bitcoin currently show an upward trend, and the short-term trend is also gradually strengthening. The trends on the daily and 4-hour charts both show a clear upward trend, indicating that Bitcoin's price is expected to break through the $70,000 mark in October. If this level is successfully broken through, the market will usher in a comprehensive upward trend. Therefore, investors should continue to hold Bitcoin and wait for the further development of the bull market.
Compared to Bitcoin, the performance of Ethereum has been slightly lagging, but it has also started to gradually strengthen. The price of Ethereum has been in a slump for the past few months, but there are signs of a rebound recently. The current price of ETH is still at a relatively low level, and according to the historical correlation pattern, when the price of Bitcoin reaches $65,000, the price of Ethereum should be around $3,400. However, the current price of ETH is only around $2,600, so the market expects that by the end of October, Ethereum is likely to quickly break through $3,000 and follow the upward trend of Bitcoin.
Market Analysis of Major Cryptocurrencies
In the current cryptocurrency market, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, some major cryptocurrencies also show strong correlation and upside potential:
BNB: The current trend is still linked to the overall market, and the future upside potential is still huge, so it is recommended to continue holding.
XRP: Ripple has experienced a period of sideways fluctuation recently, but with the stabilization of the overall market, it may usher in a wave of catch-up rally in the future.
SOL: The correlation with the overall market is strong, and the short-term trend is stable, so it is recommended to continue holding.
Doge: The performance of Dogecoin has been relatively strong, with outstanding correlation, and the market outlook remains bullish.
BCH: Bitcoin Cash has experienced a strong surge recently, and the strength of the market remains strong, so the outlook is still bullish.
AR: The correlation is relatively strong, and although it has undergone a period of adjustment, it is expected to usher in an outbreak in the future, so it can be appropriately added to the portfolio.
UNI: Uniswap has performed strongly recently, and the outlook remains bullish.
ARB: Arbitrum will continue to be mainly linked to Ethereum in the short term, so it is recommended to continue holding.
OP: Optimism has seen a recent price increase, but the selling pressure is relatively large, and the future upside potential may be limited, so it is recommended to gradually reduce the position when the price is high.
Market Outlook and Risk Factors
Overall, the cryptocurrency market has gradually stabilized after experiencing a period of violent fluctuations. This week, the price of Bitcoin has broken through $66,000, and the market sentiment has begun to gradually become optimistic. It is expected that the overall market outlook will be bullish in late October. However, the US election is still an important factor affecting the trend of cryptocurrencies. If Trump is elected, it may bring positive news to the market, while if the other candidate is elected, there may be a slight negative impact. However, regardless of who wins the election, the overall direction of this round of cryptocurrency bull market will not change.
Investors should continue to maintain an optimistic mood and wait for the further upward trend of the market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies all have strong upside potential, especially in the case of a stabilized overall market, and may receive clearer bull market signals in the coming months.
Finally, there are actually many things that have not been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something that can be summarized in an article.
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