Assuming a war breaks out between North and South Korea, will Bitcoin become a safe haven for capital?

The issue of North and South Korea has always been one of the focal points of international attention. Whenever there is any movement between the two countries, it will sound the global security alarm. However, North Korea suddenly blew up the railway line connecting North and South Korea early this (15th) morning, causing the situation between the two Koreas to heat up again. According to a report by Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said today that North Korea has blown up part of the Gyeongui Line and the East Sea Line railways connecting the two Koreas, cutting off land transportation between the two sides. After announcing the strengthening of vigilance and monitoring, the South Korean military immediately opened fire in response south of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL): "Our military is closely monitoring the activities of the Korean People's Army and is strengthening surveillance and vigilance in cooperation with the United States, while maintaining full readiness." According to a report by the Central News Agency, the North Korean military announced through the official media on the 9th that it will completely cut off land transportation between the two Koreas from that day on to maintain a solid defense posture. The main land routes connecting the two Koreas include the East Sea Line, the Gyeongui Line, the Arrow Heights Highway, and the Joint Security Area (JSA) connecting road. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff also mentioned at a press conference yesterday that the South Korean military has found that North Korea has set up fences to block the routes and carried out blasting operations behind the fences, and is expected to blow up the railways in the near future. According to intelligence information obtained by the South Korean military, North Korea has been laying mines around the land routes connecting the two Koreas since the end of last year, and has been dismantling street lights, railway facilities, and nearby buildings. After the escalation of the conflict between North and South Korea, the whole world is watching whether the two Koreas will further develop into a war. However, some are also worried that South Korea, known for its "crazy coin speculation", may be affected by the conflict, whether it will "sell off" or "continue to buy" cryptocurrencies. In this regard, Dongguan analyzes the following factors: War War usually causes market uncertainty and panic, and South Korea, as a well-known coin speculation country, is also one of the major cryptocurrency markets in the world. The panic sentiment of investors in this country may lead to a large-scale sell-off. Looking back on past regional conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict), the probability of market decline is very high. Furthermore, if there is further damage to local buildings and personnel, the degree of sell-off may be more obvious, and most South Korean investors speculate on coins using centralized exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb. In this case, the risks of bank runs, inability to withdraw, and exchanges running away will expand the fear of the public, and the market may face an even more terrifying sell-off wave. Hedging mentality Another scenario is that the South Korean public and even global investors will truly see Bitcoin as "digital gold", in which case Bitcoin will be seen as a hedging asset, and when a war breaks out, the public will buy Bitcoin or gold as a hedging tool, causing the price of Bitcoin to rise. In addition, during the war, the South Korean stock market and the Korean won exchange rate are likely to fall, and South Korean investors may convert part of their assets into Bitcoin, further driving up its price. However, there may be some doubts, as the penetration rate of cold wallets in South Korea is not high, and if the centralized exchanges in South Korea are paralyzed, how can South Korean users hoard coins? The author reminds that South Koreans can also use global exchanges such as Binance and Bybit.