Author: Lao Mao
Perhaps you have already been a user of some AI model, using AI to help you modify code, edit photos, translate, or even create videos and write songs. AI is a great tool, this is an undisputed fact, but have you ever imagined how AI will impact our lives in the next 10 years?
Old friends know that I was one of the people who invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago. Many of my articles back then about the future value of Bitcoin can still be found online. Due to the limitations of my knowledge at the time, there were also many mistakes, but my firm judgment on the future value of Bitcoin can be verified. I also benefited greatly from following my own judgment. However, 10 years have passed, and I believe the era of Bitcoin's price skyrocketing has passed. Of course, if you think an increase of 3-5 times is a surge, I won't argue with you.
I once left the e-commerce industry when Alibaba went public, so it is logical that my attitude towards Bitcoin has changed when it became an ETF. I still believe that **Bitcoin is the best means of value preservation**, because this is the first time in human history that a technical means has allowed individuals to truly own their own wealth.
However, as an investor, if I ignore the biggest transformation happening in the world, I will be ridiculed.
I don't care about live-streaming e-commerce, the metaverse, Web3 and the lightning shows of big A companies, as well as the waves of memes, because these are just small opportunities, not major trends. What I'm waiting for is a major trend that I can invest in.
I am firmly convinced that AI is such a trend-setting opportunity, and even an opportunity for more people to participate, because I can see the world changing due to AI. Looking back 10 years, the following changes are almost visible.
Education and Residence
The other day, I had a sudden idea to ask AI to teach me binary, and AI helped me understand and learn the binary expression of simple numbers in less than half an hour. Of course, I could also learn and verify it through Google, but the difference is that the way of learning and interacting on Google is much more complex than AI. If you want to learn more in-depth content, it is almost unrealistic to rely solely on search engines, while for AI, as long as you are willing to learn, it can teach you thoroughly. This immersive and interactive learning method is unmatched even by the best teachers. Going further, it becomes very interesting. If there is an AI robot to tutor children, why do I need to let my child spend so much money on tutoring classes? And why should the teachers in the community school teach the child, instead of using the AI trained by top experts to help the child? What can the school do then? Social training? Etiquette training? Physical exercise? Anything else? If the core function of knowledge transfer is replaced by AI, the existence of schools may change, and the concept of school district housing is simply an ancient mindset. The changes will also affect the demand for living environment, and the concept of real estate investment will change rapidly due to AI. Recently, I have been considering how to better use the Tesla ecosystem when building my house in a few years.
Interests and Hobbies
I have two hobbies: Go and pool. If I were to cultivate a child, which one would I choose? 10 years ago, I would have chosen Go without hesitation, because Go represents a way of thinking, how to plan, how to accumulate advantages, how to break through adversity, and how to achieve a perfect ending. By learning Go, you can train your overall perspective and decision-making ability, which is quite valuable. As for pool, it's fine not to play. But now, I would definitely choose pool, and let him choose whether to learn Go or not. The reason is simple: Go has been played to death by AI, and the way of thinking that used to represent how to deal with things has become difficult for humans to understand. If a way of thinking does not lead to logical consequences, the value of learning it becomes lower. As for pool, it not only requires thinking about how to play, but also trains the coordination and control of the body. Due to the physical limitations, the day when general robots can defeat human pool masters may still be far away. Choosing to do things that AI has difficulty excelling at is also a way to respect the trend.
War and Peace
Even just 5 years ago, I was a worrier about war, concerned about the possibility of large-scale wars between countries on Earth. But at this moment, although the Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for several years, I am increasingly convinced that large-scale wars will become less and less. The Russia-Ukraine war may be the last large-scale ground troop contact war in human history, simply because it is unnecessary! Israel's attacks on Hezbollah using BB missiles are still traditional attack methods, but the decapitation-style attacks on the other side's leaders definitely involve AI technology. The collaboration between drones and AI makes it impossible for the war initiators to bear the consequences. I don't think anyone in this world is willing to be a lifelong mole and start a war that will lead to retaliation from an entire country. Local conflicts and games will always exist, but the development of AI technology will make the possibility of large-scale destructive ground wars increasingly low.
Investment and Business
Investment and business under the AI trend also require more macro thinking. But when I consider a choice, I will always use the potential of AI in the future as a premise. Those who invested in Nvidia have already made their first fortune, and they deserve it. This is the value of their thinking. For a considerable period of time in the future, Nvidia will still be very sexy, but this is not the whole of AI. I have also invested in Tesla stocks, and I will only buy and not sell in the next 2 years, because Tesla is the company with the strongest AI application capabilities. But this is still not the whole, there are many companies related to AI that are very valuable. Perhaps in the fields you are familiar with, there will be a company related to AI that will be very valuable in the future. Such opportunities may not be few in the early stage of the overall AI trend.
Business also requires imagination. For example, if the land at a remote entrance to the main road in your city is cheap, you can buy it now and turn it into a large-scale wind and solar energy storage and charging platform before Tesla's unmanned rental cars come out. There will be hundreds or even thousands of unmanned rental cars charging and cleaning here all the time. This seems like a good business. If I have the opportunity, I hope I can invest in a similar company.
I have always been confident in my ability to choose, and I am good at making decisions at critical moments.
In the past, my logic of choice was: from a long-term perspective, will this choice add or subtract to the meaning of my life. Now, I have added a second judgment criterion: from the development trend of AI, is this choice valuable or meaningless. This choice is not only in investment and business, but in all aspects. With these two criteria overlapping, I find that there are not too many things I can choose to do, and observation and thinking have always been one of the most meaningful things.
