With less than 20 days to go until the highly anticipated 2024 US presidential election, the latest data from the renowned Polymarket blockchain prediction market shows that former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has publicly endorsed cryptocurrencies multiple times this year, currently has a winning probability of nearly 62%, leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by over 23%. This is the first time Trump's odds have surpassed the 60% threshold since Biden's withdrawal in late July.
The total betting volume on Polymarket's US presidential election market has now surged to $2.05 billion, more than doubling since the end of September. Of this, over $600 million has been bet on Trump, while over $400 million has been placed on Harris, with the remaining $1 billion or so wagered on other candidates.
Trump's Odds Surge to 62% on Polymarket, Driven by Four Crypto Whales
DL News reports that the rapid surge in Trump's odds on Polymarket is primarily driven by four anonymous whales - Fredi9999, Princess Caro, Michie, and Theo4 - who have collectively bet nearly $24.7 million on Trump's victory.
The largest whale, Fredi9999, alone holds over $12.3 million worth of shares betting on Trump's win, while PrincessCaro has bet $3.9 million, Michie has bet $3.5 million, and Theo4 has bet $5 million. In total, these four whale accounts have nearly $35 million in pro-Republican trades.
A self-proclaimed "full-time political betting veteran" known as "Domer" wrote on X yesterday that Fredi9999 "single-handedly pushed up Trump's odds on Polymarket," estimating that Fredi's bets alone have skewed the Polymarket presidential election market by 5-8% in Trump's favor. He also speculates that these four whale accounts may actually be controlled by the same person or entity.
Further Reading: Trump Leads by 13% on Polymarket, Criticizes Fed for Cutting Rates 'Too Quickly': 'Totally Political Decision'
Crypto Whales' Bets Have Skewed the Prediction Market
Experts also believe that given Polymarket's relatively low market depth and liquidity, the manipulation by these whales has distorted the overall prediction market outcome.
Some critics have also questioned the reliability of using this platform as a reliable gauge of public sentiment, as it is only accessible outside the US, requires cryptocurrency to bet, and does not have the same betting limits as some regulated prediction markets. Additionally, the platform currently has only around 100,000 users, a small fraction of the 244 million eligible US voters.
Forbes reports that Nate Silver, a statistician who serves as an advisor to Polymarket, commented last week that the pro-Trump population on these sites may skew the data, leading to Trump's odds being higher than reasonable. Traditional public opinion polls, on the other hand, aim to survey smaller, more representative samples of the broader American electorate, covering demographics such as race, age, and other characteristics.
Election Betting Platforms Generally Favor Trump
Notably, other prominent prediction markets that allow users to bet on the election outcome also show a Trump-leaning trend: Betfair estimates Trump's chances of winning at nearly 59%, Kalshi at 57%, PredictIt at 54%, and Smarkets at 58%.
A compilation of the betting odds from five major prediction markets shows Trump's probability of winning at 57.6%, a new high since July 29 and a significant increase of 9% from around 48% in late September.
In contrast, the traditional mainstream media polls mostly show that Kamala Harris has a slight lead over Trump, and some polls also show that Kamala Harris' campaign is in death cross.
