Last week, Bitcoin showed a strong upward trend, rising close to $69,000. It was impressive that it broke away from the prolonged coupling with Nasdaq and showed an independent price movement. On a weekly basis, Bitcoin rose 12.56%, while Nasdaq only rose 0.86%.
The Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded net inflows for all 5 business days this week, recording the best performance since the ETF's launch in January this year. A total of $2.12 billion worth of funds flowed in, with $1.1 billion flowing into BlackRock's IBIT. Grayscale's GBTC, which had been recording frequent net outflows with almost no net inflows, also recorded net inflows of $37.8 million and $45.7 million on the 14th and 17th, respectively, indicating a very positive market sentiment.
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin's open interest is at an all-time high, and the funding rate is at its highest since July. This suggests that the market's interest and buying sentiment in Bitcoin remains strong. The amount of stablecoin on exchanges is also increasing rapidly, further increasing the potential for Bitcoin price appreciation. In particular, the rapid increase in USDT holdings on centralized exchanges shows a strong correlation with the rise in Bitcoin prices.
Trump's Winning Probability Rises to 60%... Will He Really Succeed in Re-election?
The strong upward trend of Bitcoin this week seems to be greatly influenced by the increased likelihood of Donald Trump's election victory. While it had been rising slightly since the second week of October, last week the Republican candidate Trump recorded a betting rate of over 60% on the election-related products of the prediction market platform Polymarket, making it a major economic news topic throughout the week. In contrast, the opposing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris saw her winning probability drop below 40% at one point.
The background for the increased betting on Trump's victory is the recent Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran. The current Democratic Biden administration has failed to provide an adequate response to the conflict between the two countries and the civilian casualties in Gaza, and on October 4, the conflict's impact caused international oil prices to rise close to $80 per barrel, leading to an increase in Trump's winning probability.
Trump previously stated in July that if he becomes president, he will ease regulations on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and make the US the center of cryptocurrency mining. He also mentioned that he will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic asset and not sell the Bitcoin held by the US government. He expressed a strong desire for the US to lead, saying "Bitcoin to the Moon".
In a very unusual move for a US politician, he launched the sale of the 'World Liberty Financial' (WLFI) coin bearing his name on the 15th. These statements and actions have resonated greatly within the cryptocurrency community and have raised positive expectations among investors.
If Trump wins the presidency, it could have a positive impact on Bitcoin due to regulatory easing, support for cryptocurrency mining, and the US government's continued holding of Bitcoin. Additionally, if Bitcoin is adopted as a strategic asset, it could lead to increased market trust and appreciation.
The direction of the general public opinion poll among US citizens is still uncertain. If the Biden administration can completely resolve the Middle East conflict and demonstrate strong leadership, the momentum could reverse. However, there is currently considerable tension in the Democratic party. Harris announced on the 15th that she would take various measures, including cryptocurrency-friendly regulations, for the benefit of black men.
Harris has a lower approval rating among black male voters compared to previous Democratic presidential candidates. To address this, she has proposed 'carrot' policies related to cryptocurrencies, which many black men invest in. However, considering her passive stance on cryptocurrencies throughout the campaign, this approach seems somewhat awkward. Will it resonate with black American voters?
Cryptocurrency Sees Positive News... Bitcoin Just 9% Away from All-Time High
Bitcoin is now approaching its all-time high, just 9% away from breaking through the $70,000 level. Will the price continue to rise this week?
Fundamentally, the price at the beginning of the week is likely to be supported by two positive news items that came out late on Friday. One is that asset manager BlackRock is in discussions to allow its own stablecoin, BUIDL, to be used as collateral by cryptocurrency derivative exchanges. This essentially means that BlackRock is competing with Tether in the stablecoin market, and if realized, it could have a significant impact on the market.
The other issue is the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of Bitcoin ETF options trading. The SEC has approved rule changes that will allow the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Options Exchange to offer Bitcoin spot ETF options. The launch date for the options product is still undecided.
In addition, there are two aspects to watch out for in the market this week. First, the US stock market is likely to move quite turbulently. From Monday the 21st to Thursday the 24th, there will be four consecutive days of official statements from Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, on the 22nd, GM, and on the 23rd, Tesla, IBM and other large-cap companies will report their earnings.
On the other hand, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the betting rate of Polymarket, which was the cause of the Trump storm this week. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 19th (local time) that according to Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm, four whale investor accounts placed large bets on Polymarket's US presidential election, which may have increased Trump's chances of winning. This suggests the possibility of manipulation of public opinion. Given that the victory betting rate on Polymarket has contributed the most to the formation of the Trump sentiment, if this ratio drops significantly from the current 60%, there is a possibility of an adjustment in the Bit price. Then, I would like to wish you a successful investment this week as well.
