BTC breaks through the 68,000 resistance level, NVIDIA sets a new historical high, and capital continues to flow into the crypto market.
Crypto Market Summary
1. Since the National Day, the cryptocurrency market has started to rise overall, with BTC breaking through the 68,000 USD resistance level and returning to the 70,000 USD mark, even creating a new high again. According to the previous BTC halving cycles, BTC often completes a new high within 10-15 months after the halving. With the imminent resolution of the biggest uncertainty factor, the US election, the crypto market is very likely to usher in a new round of surge after the election.
2. The current US CPI and initial jobless claims data have both been flat, making it difficult to provide strong support for further rate cuts. However, the fundamentals remain positive, and it cannot be ruled out that there may be another downward test before BTC takes off, aided by unclear market sentiment.
3. The rise of NVIDIA and the AI sector has driven the US stock market higher, and the AI concept is worth focusing on.
I. Market Overview
1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index
The FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a DePIN quality portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, selecting the most representative 24 DePIN projects. Compared to the previous report, the NAV value has declined slightly, from 10.12 to 9.79. The Spot Price has also fallen back, as the prices of most DePIN application-type projects began to correct this week, while storage and infrastructure DePINs like STORJ and IOTA still have strong upward momentum.
1.2 Crypto Market Data
From October 7th to October 16th, stablecoins remained generally stable, maintaining around 159 billion USD. The proportion of BTC in the total crypto market cap has increased slightly, currently at 57.42%.
Observing the trend of Coinglass contract open interest, the BTC contract open interest on the entire network has increased since October 7th, from the previous 34 billion USD to 38.5 billion USD. In the few days after the National Day holiday, the BTC contract open interest experienced repeated fluctuations, and as BTC prices surged again on October 11th, the contract open interest also began to rise steadily.
The ETH contract open interest on the entire network has increased over the past week, from around 11.5 billion USD on October 7th to around 12.8 billion USD on October 15th.
Currently, the overall BTC trend is in a confidence recovery stage, and with BTC's recent breakthrough of stage highs, the previous new entrants have been taking profits and leaving the market, and the overall improvement in the crypto fundamentals, the altcoin season is showing a trend of returning, causing a certain degree of BTC spot net outflow. As of now, BTC spot has a net outflow of 167 million USD, ETH spot has a net inflow of 151 million USD; BTC contract has a net inflow of 2.031 billion USD, and ETH contract has a net inflow of 587 million USD.
1.3 CPI and other data, as well as market reaction, and the judgment of the market
1. Macro: On October 11th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in September, down slightly from the previous 2.5%, but exceeding the expected 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021. Combined with the strong non-farm employment report last week, this may intensify the debate over whether the Fed will choose a small rate cut next month or pause the rate cut after the large cut in September.
The number of initial jobless claims jumped 33,000 from September 28 to 258,000, far higher than the expected 230,000, the highest number of applicants since early August 2023. One of the reasons for the increase may be the impact of Hurricane Ian, with a significant increase in unemployment benefit claims in Florida and North Carolina, and a surge in claimants in states affected by the storm such as Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky.
2. In terms of crypto: Over the past week, BTC has shown a short-term bottom rebound, quickly rebounding from the bottom of around 59,000 USD and breaking through the 69,000 USD resistance level. At the same time, the liquidity of BTC spot ETFs has increased, attracting more institutional investors into the market. Overall, while US stocks are hitting new highs, with the increase in global market uncertainty, the risk-averse sentiment in the market has increased significantly, and BTC's safe-haven attributes have attracted some market inflows. Against the backdrop of increasing global political and economic uncertainty, the crypto market will continue to receive capital inflows, especially with the positive long-term outlook for BTC, and BTC may test new price highs in the coming months.
3. Sectors worth investing in: According to the US stock performance, on October 14th, the US stock indices collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new highs, driven by tech stocks and chip stocks. Against the backdrop of a broad rally in chip stocks, NVIDIA set a new historical high. Therefore, the AI sector remains the strongest sector narrative in the current Web3. In addition, the RWA concept closely related to traditional finance is also becoming increasingly hot.
II. Hot Market News
2.1 Fed Governor Daly: Must Protect Economic Growth, Open to Only One More Rate Cut This Year
FOMC member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that based on the median estimates released in September, officials still expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs by another 50 basis points by the end of 2024. With inflation cooling, last month's rate cut was a "recalibration" of policy, and she emphasized that interest rates are still restrictive. Daly said last week that she believes the Fed may cut rates one or two more times this year, each by 25 basis points.
2.2 John Lee: Apply AI to Promote Central Bank Digital Currency, Virtual Asset Trading and Other Innovative Financial Services
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee said the government will continue to promote the policy stance and guidelines for applying AI to innovative financial services such as central bank digital currency, mobile payments, virtual banks, virtual insurance, and virtual asset trading.
Measures include: 1) Promoting the application of central bank digital currency in cross-border payments, with the HKMA actively testing and exploring more technical solutions and scenarios related to cross-border trade settlement on various central bank digital currency cross-border networks, and expanding the participation of public and private institutions; 2) Improving the regulation of virtual assets and trading, with the Treasury Bureau completing the second round of consultation on the regulation of over-the-counter virtual asset trading, and submitting a virtual licensing regime for virtual asset custody service providers; 3) Promoting the tokenization of real-world assets and the digital currency ecosystem, with the HKMA pushing forward the Ensemble project.
2.3 a16z Sends $50,000 to AI Bot GOAT
GOAT comes from the OPUS large language model Truth Terminal, whose training data comes from sites like Reddit and 4chan. Basically, it is trained on extreme subculture content. Its design purpose is to debate the belief systems generated by AI and combine meme elements. On July 9 this year, the official a16z Twitter interacted with Truth Terminal and sent $50,000 to Truth Terminal. As of now, the GOAT token market cap has exceeded $300 million, with a 24-hour increase of 133%.
2.4 Trump Family Crypto Project WLFI Token Sales Exceed $10 Million
The Trump family crypto project World Liberty Financial's WLFI token sales have exceeded $10 million, reaching about 3.4% of its $300 million target so far. WLFI started selling on October 15, offering a total of 20 billion tokens, and sold 687 million tokens worth about $103 million in the first 14 hours. Etherscan data shows that there are 6,832 unique wallet addresses holding WLFI, currently lower than the over 100,000 registered users the project team announced the day before the token launch.
III. Regulatory Environment
TD Bank Fined $300 Million for Failing to Report Suspicious Crypto Activities
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) stated that the banking giant TD Bank failed to report suspicious activity from an anonymous client organization that was processing international cryptocurrency transactions. TD Bank processed over 2,000 transactions from a company called "Customer Group C" over 9 months, which was determined to be "allegedly engaged in the sale of financing and real estate." The organization misrepresented their plans for international wire activity to TD Bank, claiming their annual sales would not exceed $1 million. In reality, they conducted over $1 billion in transactions through TD Bank. As a result, TD Bank was charged with multiple felonies, including violations of the Bank Secrecy Act and money laundering, and was fined $3 billion.
