Odaily星球日报讯 美国国债收益率因数据显示未出现大规模裁员而受到提振。上周初请申请失业救济人数从上修后的 24.2 万人降至 22.7 万人，低于市场预计的 24.5 万人。数据支持了市场对美联储将逐步降息的预期。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的“美联储观察”工具显示，11 月降息 25 个基点的几率从昨日的 92%升至现在的 97%。美元指数也略有回升，10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率上涨，均略高于数据公布前的水平。（金十数据 APP）

初请人数下降提振美元指数，11月降息25基点几率升至97%

Odaily Odaily News: U.S. Treasury yields were boosted by data showing no large-scale layoffs. Initial unemployment claims fell to 227,000 last week from an upwardly revised 242,000, lower than the market&#39;s forecast of 245,000. The data supports the market&#39;s expectations that the Federal Reserve will gradually cut interest rates. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot; tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen from 92% yesterday to 97% now. The U.S. dollar index also rebounded slightly, and the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rose, both slightly higher than before the data was released. (Jinshi Data APP)

The decline in initial claims boosted the US dollar index, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November rose to 97%.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in September unexpectedly cut interest rates by around 50bp. Many self-media, experts, and financial advisors jumped out to be bullish on bonds and urged everyone to rush into US Treasuries. At that time, they presented a flawless financial common sense: when interest rates fall, bond yields will decline, and bond prices will rise. <Liu Jie> has repeatedly reminded in internal references and articles to pay attention to the occurrence of "counterintuitive" situations, but he still witnessed many unfortunate cases. On September 18, when the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury was 3705bp; more than a month later today, it has soared to 42...

High debt, high inflation: US economy may fall into the "lost decade" again

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analyst Andrew Cunningham of Kai Investment Macro said in a report that the European Central Bank may be more aggressive in cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting. A survey released on Thursday showed that private sector activity in the Eurozone continued to stagnate this month, indicating a severe economic slowdown at the start of the last quarter of the year. Cunningham said that inflation is cooling, and the ECB may conclude that its policy no longer needs to restrict economic activity. This means that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, faster than the previous 25 basis point cut. (Gold Ten)

Capital Economics: ECB expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at December meeting

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, reducing it from 4.25% to 3.75%, the largest reduction in borrowing costs since the initial outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020. The Bank of Canada said this is a sign that the country is returning to a low-inflation era. To address soaring prices, the Bank of Canada had previously raised rates to their highest level in 20 years, but has now cut rates four times in a row since June. The inflation rate in September fell to 1.6%, below the 2% target. (China Fund News)