编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链
摘要
吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周 IMF 下调明年全球经济预期，美联储经济状况褐皮书显示美国经济持续疲软；本周将迎来美联储通胀和就业指标的双重“轰炸”，美国 9 月核心 PCE 以及 10 月非农报告的强强组合，将是影响美联储后续降息节奏的重要因素。
上周回顾
- IMF 公布全球经济展望报告：维持今年全球经济增长为 3.2%的预期不变，下调明年的全球经济增长预期...

<div>编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周 IMF 下调明年全球经济预期，美联储经济状况褐皮书显示美国经济持续疲软；本周将迎来美联储通胀和就业指标的双重“轰炸”，美国 9 月核心 PCE 以及 10 月非农报告的强强组合，将是影响美联储后续降息节奏的重要因素。 上周回顾 <ul><li>IMF 公布全球经济展望报告：维持今年全球经济增长为 3.2%的预期不变，下调明年的全球经济增长预期至 3.2%，并警告战争冲突、贸易保护主义等风险正在加剧。IMF 赞扬了全球央行在不令经济陷入衰退的情况下遏制了通胀。IMF 警告，美国大选给脆弱的金融市场带来高度不确定性，这有可能令 8 月的市场抛售重演。</li><li>美国至 10 月 19 日当周初请失业金人数 22.7 万人 美国至 10 月 19 日当周初请失业金人数 22.7 万人，预期 24.2 万人，前值由 24.1 万人修正为 24.2 万人。</li><li>加拿大银行（央行）决定将政策利率下调 50 个基点，从 4.25%降至 3.75%。</li><li>美联储经济状况褐皮书显示美国经济持续疲软。</li><li>美国 10 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值升至 70.5，高于预期，亦高于初值的 68.9 及 9 月终值的 70.1。</li></ul> 本周重点事件 &amp; 指标 10 月 30 日<ul><li>美国 10 月 ADP 就业人数(万人)（20:15）</li><li>美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值（20:30）</li><li>美国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值（20:30）</li></ul> 10 月 31 日<ul><li>日本央行公布利率决议和前景展望报告</li><li>美国至 10 月 26 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（20:30）</li><li>美国 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率（20:30）</li></ul> 11 月 01 日<ul><li>美国 10 月失业率（20:30）</li><li>美国 10 月季调后非农就业人口(万人)（20:30）</li></ul></div>

吴说本周宏观指标与分析：PCE、非农数据

Compilation: GaryMa Wu Blockchain

Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macroeconomic indicators and analysis: Last week, the IMF downgraded next year's global economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions showed that the US economy remains weak; this week will see a "double bombardment" of the Federal Reserve's inflation and employment indicators, the strong combination of the US core PCE in September and the non-farm payroll report in October, which will be an important factor in influencing the Federal Reserve's subsequent pace of rate cuts.

Last week's review
- The IMF released the Global Economic Outlook report: maintaining the expected global economic growth of 3.2% this year, downgrading the global economic growth outlook for next year...

<div>Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Blockchain Abstract Wu Blockchain's review of macroeconomic indicators and analysis this week: Last week, the IMF downgraded its global economic outlook for next year, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that the US economy remains weak; this week will see a "double whammy" of inflation and employment indicators from the Federal Reserve, with the strong combination of the US core PCE in September and the October non-farm payroll report being an important factor in influencing the Fed's subsequent pace of rate cuts. Last Week's Review <ul><li>The IMF released its World Economic Outlook report: It maintained its forecast for global economic growth this year at 3.2%, but downgraded its forecast for global economic growth next year to 3.2%, warning that the risks of war conflicts and trade protectionism are increasing. The IMF praised the global central banks for containing inflation without plunging the economy into recession. The IMF warned that the US election could bring high uncertainty to the fragile financial markets, which could lead to a repeat of the market sell-off in August.</li><li>The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 19 was 227,000, with an expected 242,000 and a previous value of 241,000 revised to 242,000.</li><li>The Bank of Canada (central bank) decided to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points, from 4.25% to 3.75%.</li><li>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that the US economy remains weak.</li><li>The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US for October rose to 70.5, higher than expected and also higher than the preliminary reading of 68.9 and the final reading of 70.1 in September.</li></ul> Key Events & Indicators This Week October 30<ul><li>US ADP Employment Change (10,000) (20:15)</li><li>US Q3 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Advance (20:30)</li><li>US Q3 Core PCE Price Index Annualized QoQ Advance (20:30)</li></ul> October 31<ul><li>Bank of Japan Releases Interest Rate Decision and Outlook Report</li><li>US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending October 26 (10,000) (20:30)</li><li>US September Core PCE Price Index YoY (20:30)</li></ul> November 01<ul><li>US October Unemployment Rate (20:30)</li><li>US October Nonfarm Payrolls (10,000) (20:30)</li></ul></div>

Wu Blockchain this week's macro indicators and analysis: PCE, non-agricultural data

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting have decreased, and the inflation and employment data to be released next week may still change expectations. According to the CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped from nearly 20% earlier this month to 2%. Most people are betting that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. The September PCE data will be released next Thursday, and the October employment data will be released next Friday. Price data shows that inflation is persistent but not overheated. The employment data may be affected by one-time factors such as hurricanes and strikes. (Jinshi)

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped to 2% from nearly 20%

PANews, October 26 - Although the US election situation remains deadlocked, market bets on a Trump victory are driving the "Trump trade" to make a comeback, and the Federal Reserve's surprise 50-basis-point rate cut in September to kick off an easing cycle now seems like a distant memory, even being questioned as a "policy mistake". Since the September meeting, US economic indicators have been consistently strong, including the CPI report. The market narrative is shifting towards a "soft landing", which has triggered a sharp reversal in US Treasury yields, in turn boosting the US dollar, with several Fed officials already openly supporting a gradual rate cut.

According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market is pricing in a 95.6% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting. In contrast, a month ago, the market was fully pricing in at least a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with a 57.4% probability of a 50-basis-point cut. The Fed's next rate decision will be made after the US election, and the market will digest a lot of economic data before then. The key macroeconomic market highlights for the coming week are as follows:

Monday 22:30, US October Dallas Fed Business Activity Index;
Tuesday 1:00, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem participating in a fireside chat;
Tuesday 22:00, US September JOLTS Job Openings, US October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index;
Wednesday 18:00, Eurozone Q3 GDP YoY preliminary, Eurozone October Industrial Confidence, Eurozone October Consumer Confidence final, Eurozone October Economic Sentiment;
Wednesday 20:15, US October ADP Employment Change;
Wednesday 20:30, US Q3 Real GDP QoQ annualized preliminary, US Q3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures QoQ preliminary, US Q3 Core PCE Price Index QoQ annualized preliminary;
Thursday 18:00, Eurozone October CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone October CPI MoM, Eurozone September Unemployment Rate;
Friday 20:30, US October Nonfarm Payrolls, US October Unemployment Rate, US October Average Hourly Earnings MoM;
Friday 21:45, US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final.

Given that the Fed is now more concerned about the labor market than inflation, weak employment data could push the market back into a more dovish mode. Additionally, any signs of a slowdown in the US economy could increase bets on the Fed cutting rates further in the coming meetings. However, if growth remains strong and PCE data indicates some stickiness in inflation, the rate cut bets could be further undermined. Currently, only one additional 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this year is fully priced in. If the November rate cut expectations start to be questioned, the US dollar could rise to new highs, and the stock market could face selling pressure.

As the decisive moment for American voters to elect a new president draws nearer, the uncertainty over who will prevail on November 5th is growing. While Harris still leads in most opinion polls, her lead has narrowed significantly in the past ten days, and voter sentiment towards Trump has been gaining momentum.

Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Trump deal" makes a comeback, and expectations for Fed rate cuts change dramatically before the quiet period

According to mempool data, an independent miner through the independent mining pool Solo CKPool mined Bitcoin block 867118 on the 24th at 17:18, earning 3.329 BTC (block reward + fees), worth approximately $222,000.

<BlockTempo - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media>

It is worth noting that this is the fourth time an independent miner has mined a block reward (the first, second, and third times) and obtained a substantial return from the Bitcoin network since July.

The first occurrence was in July this year...