Nomura warns: Markets are over-hedged on Trump trades, a 'Harris surprise' could happen

Odaily Odaily News: Charlie McElligott, managing director of Nomura and cross-asset macro strategist for the Americas, warned in his latest report that in recent weeks, the market has over-hedged the hypothetical results of the election in which Trump and the US Republican Party win both houses of Congress. It is possible that Harris's approval rating will be higher than expected and the election will be deadlocked. At that time, all types of assets will be at risk of reversal. Because in the next few days and the next two weeks, the US Treasury will experience a large-scale issuance in the early stage of the federal government's 2025 fiscal year, including the issuance of $70 billion in five-year US Treasury bonds, $69 billion in two-year Treasury bonds, and $44 billion in seven-year Treasury bonds, the JOLTS report on the number of job vacancies in the United States, the latest refinancing announcement of the Treasury Department, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), non-farm payrolls (NFP), the US presidential election day and the November Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee FOMC meeting. (zerohedge)