Odaily星球日报讯 在美国就业数据和美国总统大选之前，美元保持稳定。荷兰国际集团分析师 Francesco Pesole 在一份报告中称，美国 JOLTS 职位空缺数据可能会分散市场对 11 月 5 日大选的注意力。他说，就业市场走软的迹象可能会促使市场消化美联储进一步降息的预期。不过，如果美国经济数据不恶化，美元应该会在大选前升值。“我们仍对美元持正面偏见，如果在大选日看到美元指数接近 10，我们不会感到意外。”（金十）

荷兰国际银行：就业市场走软迹象可或促市场消化美联储进一步降息的预期

Odaily Odaily News: The dollar remained stable ahead of U.S. employment data and the U.S. presidential election. In a report, ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that the U.S. JOLTS job vacancy data could distract the market from the November 5 election. He said that signs of a weakening job market could prompt the market to digest expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, if U.S. economic data does not deteriorate, the dollar should appreciate before the election. &quot;We still have a positive bias on the U.S. dollar, and we would not be surprised to see the U.S. dollar index approach 10 on Election Day.&quot; (Jinshi)

ING Bank: Signs of weakening job market may prompt the market to digest the Fed's expectations of further rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Wil Stith, a bond portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, said that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected and the non-farm data on Friday is hotter than expected, "I think they can discuss suspending the rate cut, because they have already cut rates by 50 basis points." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, also believes that strong employment growth may convince the Fed to suspend the rate cut in November. However, other observers of the Fed say that the data to be released on Thursday and Friday are unlikely to change the Fed's rate cut path. Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, said, "Regardless of the data, the Fed is on the path of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, and the central bank is unlikely to change this trajectory." Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said, "There is no reason to believe the Fed will not cut another 25 basis points in November" unless the employment report sees a major surprise. Currently, many traders agree with this assessment. As of last Friday, investors see a probability of over 90% that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting. (Jinshi)

Analyst: Regardless of non-farm and PCE data, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel said that if the non-farm payroll data released on Friday (November 1) rises unexpectedly sharply, the FOMC may keep the federal funds rate unchanged in November. Siegel expects three to four more rate cuts in this easing cycle, long-term interest rates to remain high, the stock market to appear strong, and the economy to remain resilient. In August, Siegel had called for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 basis points urgently. (Gold Ten)

Wharton finance professor: If non-farm data is strong, the Fed may pause rate cuts next week

Odaily Planet Daily reported that "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed's two-and-a-half-year battle to curb inflation appears to have been successful, but the US election could change this situation. Both candidates support policies that promote economic growth, which could prevent further declines in inflation. However, economists and even conservative advisers are concerned that Trump's views in particular are likely to stoke the flames of inflation. This includes his proposal to impose across-the-board tariffs on imported goods, expel workers, and rely on the Fed to lower interest rates. Overall, these policies are moving in the direction of inflation. Trump's proposals could put him in a new conflict with the Fed, whose task is to maintain low inflation. Any factors that could reignite inflation could lead officials to slow or even halt their rate cut plans.