Bitcoin reached $73,620 last night, just a step away from this year's 3-year high of $73,777. As the US presidential election approaches, Bitfinex analysts say that election-driven momentum, strong technical indicators, and increased derivative positions all indicate that the price outlook for Bitcoin is improving.
Bitcoin to Continue Rallying in Q4
Bitfinex analysts point out that the improvement in technical indicators, new inflows of capital into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and broader macroeconomic factors, including speculation on a Trump election victory and the seasonal strength of the market in Q4, are all supporting the momentum for Bitcoin to continue rising.
The "Trump trade" narrative and the seasonal Q4 rally have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin, and while prices may be volatile before the election, an exciting period lies ahead.
Options Market Signals Bitcoin May Reach $80,000 by Year-End
The options (also known as derivatives) market also reflects a positive outlook for Bitcoin, with analysts noting that call options with a December 27th strike price of $80,000 are becoming increasingly popular, indicating confidence in a post-election rally. Bitcoin could reach over $80,000 by the end of the year. However, implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting potential volatility around the election date. Analysts also note that option premiums for contracts expiring the week of the US election have increased, with implied volatility peaking shortly after November 5th, signaling potential short-term turbulence.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently released "Let's Go Bitcoin", discussing how China's QE will take time, but the future for Bitcoin is very optimistic. The National People's Congress Standing Committee of China will be held from 11/4 to 11/8, and is expected to approve more details on fiscal support.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Continued Net Inflows
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $480 million on Monday, the highest single-day inflow in two weeks. BlackRock's IBIT is the largest Bitcoin spot ETF by net assets, and has seen 11 consecutive days of net inflows. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs have only had one net outflow day since 10/11.
