With the US presidential election just 3 days away, the latest data from the well-known Polymarket blockchain prediction market shows that former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump, who has publicly supported cryptocurrencies multiple times this year, currently has a 58.1% chance of winning, down nearly 9% from the peak of 67% in late October, but still leading the Democratic candidate Biden by over 16%.
Polymarket the whale behind Trump is a French trader
However, Trump's surge in Polymarket in October has drawn widespread attention, as it was previously revealed that it was allegedly driven by millions of dollars in pro-Trump bets from four major whale accounts.
After Polymarket launched an investigation, it was announced last week that the four pro-Trump whale accounts Fredi9999, Princess Caro, Michie and Theo4 were actually controlled by a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial services background, who claimed that this person's position was based on their personal views on the election.
Today (2nd), the Wall Street Journal reported that this self-proclaimed "Théo", the pro-Trump whale on Polymarket, emphasized in an interview this week that he has absolutely "no political agenda", and is not trying to manipulate the US election, but only aims to make money.
According to his account, he is a Frenchman who has lived in the US and worked as a trader at a bank. After concluding that polls were underestimating Trump's support, he has bet over $30 million on Trump's victory, denying speculation that his multi-million dollar bet was intended to "campaign" for Trump, and claiming that the betting funds were entirely his own.
Further reading: Will Trump win big? 4 signs show, Reagan-era analyst: More supporters than expected!
If Trump wins, the whale will make over 80 million dollars
The WSJ estimates that if Théo's prediction of a Trump landslide victory comes true, he could make over $80 million in returns, more than double his investment. But if Biden wins, Théo could lose most or all of his $30 million, which he says is a large portion of his liquid assets.
Théo also admitted that as a major trader on Polymarket, he is actually in a dilemma and unable to exit the bet without causing a market collapse. He is currently very nervous about the election outcome, but still believes Trump has an 80%-90% chance of winning, though he is also worried that his bet could be thwarted by a last-minute surprise development.
The Trump-Biden race remains deadlocked
Additionally, it is worth noting that besides Polymarket, other well-known prediction markets that allow users to bet on the election outcome have also seen a decline in Trump's odds: A compilation of betting odds from five major prediction markets shows Trump's odds at 56.2%, down 4.6% in the past week, although he still leads Biden's 43.3%.
In terms of traditional polls, the race between Trump and Biden remains deadlocked, with Biden slightly ahead in some polls, but polls in the seven key swing states showing a narrow lead for Trump.
Whether Trump's overwhelming online presence on Polymarket and Twitter can translate into real-world electoral success remains to be seen after the US election on the 5th.
