Odaily星球日报讯 “很难对黄金持悲观态度。”在美国大选前夕，摩根大通最新研究报告给出了这样的判断。该行在报告中表示：“不管谁赢，如果金价回调，都将是买入良机。”目前，黄金交易非常活跃，短期内如果选举结果出乎意料，市场可能会出现波动。但摩根大通认为，长期来看，黄金仍然受益于美联储的降息周期、各国央行的购买以及全球货币贬值趋势。该行在报告中写道：“这些因素在过去一年中支持了金价，并且无论美国大选结果如何，这些驱动因素仍将继续存在。”报告预测，如果共和党全面胜利，未来 1-2 个季度金价有望上涨 7-10%；即使在最保守的情况下——哈里斯胜选且国会分裂，短期虽可能回调 2-3%，但之后仍有上涨空间。（金十）

摩根大通：不管谁赢，如果金价回调，那是买入机会

Odaily Odaily News &quot;It&#39;s hard to be pessimistic about gold.&quot; On the eve of the US election, JPMorgan Chase&#39;s latest research report gave such a judgment. The bank said in the report: &quot;No matter who wins, if the gold price pulls back, it will be a good buying opportunity.&quot; At present, gold trading is very active, and if the election results are unexpected in the short term, the market may fluctuate. But JPMorgan Chase believes that in the long run, gold still benefits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate cut cycle, purchases by central banks of various countries, and the trend of global currency depreciation. The bank wrote in the report: &quot;These factors have supported gold prices over the past year, and these drivers will continue to exist regardless of the outcome of the US election.&quot; The report predicts that if the Republicans win comprehensively, gold prices are expected to rise by 7-10% in the next 1-2 quarters; even in the most conservative case-Harris wins and Congress is divided, although it may pull back by 2-3% in the short term, there is still room for growth afterwards. (Jinshi)

JPMorgan: No matter who wins, if gold prices pull back, it's a buying opportunity

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Recently, JPMorgan Chase released a report that emphasizes the potential impact of the US election on tax policy, government debt, and market stability, providing guidance for investors on how to view the election period. JPMorgan Chase analysts explained that the key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire in 2025, and Congress may re-examine tax policy, as the non-extension of these measures could significantly increase tax revenue. The report states: "In summary, if the temporary provisions of the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will revert to higher levels, resulting in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all US households, and a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of income earners." Given this, JPMorgan Chase expects that both parties will likely push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, but the specific details will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan Chase expects that the proposals of both Trump and Harris will increase it, which could impact bond yields. The report points out: "If all the policy proposals made during the campaign were to become reality (which is unlikely), the deficit could increase by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Harris' leadership, and nearly $4 trillion under Trump's leadership." Although debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan Chase stated that some concerns may be exaggerated. The report explains: "While we believe the debt and deficit trajectory is a risk, some concerns are unfounded. In fact, the current total yield gives investors a second chance." JPMorgan Chase also discussed the possibility of a prolonged or disputed election, noting: "It's hard to say when we'll know who won this election, and we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. If the election is close, we expect to see court challenges and other legal actions by the end of this year. It's also worth noting that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act aims to strengthen mechanisms to ensure clear execution of election results." Additionally, the analysts advised investors: "After the new government is confirmed, market volatility tends to decline relatively quickly, and on average, the stock market will rise 12 months after the election. In other words, don't let the election disrupt your plan - the election results won't drive long-term market returns." This week, JPMorgan Chase analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors towards risk assets, potentially pushing up the prices of Bit and Dai in a broader "reflation trade".

JPMorgan Chase: U.S. election results could reshape tax policy, government debt and market stability, bringing about a huge economic shift

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

Bitcoin breaks below $69,000 again
Over $102 million in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours
The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed reaches 99%

The U.S. presidential election is set to officially arrive on November 5th local time, and with many market investors betting on a Trump victory, related concept stocks and Bitcoin have been on the rise. However, Citi analysts recently believe that the Trump trade may have reached a point of profit-taking.
Citi points out: The Trump trade performed very strongly in October, but they now see potential gains have diminished, and the risk-reward...

Profit taking in the “Trump trade”? Bitcoin falls below $69,000 again, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will hit next week

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