Tracking the latest developments of the US election (updates are ongoing)

a day ago

This article is machine translated

Show original

The 2024 US presidential election will be decided this week. Who will be the next president of the United States, Trump or Harris? In the next two days, various information about the progress of the election will emerge explosively, which will also affect the direction of the crypto market. This article will collect the latest progress and results of the election, as well as the latest trends in the crypto market.

Important time points for the US election:

At 13:00 Beijing time on November 5, voters in two small towns in New Hampshire were the first to vote.
At 19:00 Beijing time on November 5, most voting stations in the United States will open
From 8:00 to 11:00 Beijing time on November 6, voting stations in most states in the United States will be closed one after another, and the vote counting will begin immediately.
After 12:00 Beijing time on November 6, the vote count results were released one after another, and the election situation gradually became clear.

Here are some of the latest news:

November 5:

US election polls live: Harris leads in two polls

On November 5, according to the latest data, as of the 4th local time in the United States: In the US election polls conducted by Forbes/HarrisX and NPR/PBS/Marist, Harris is ahead of Trump. In the US election polls conducted by Atlas Intel, Trump is ahead of Harris. The two sides are tied in the US election polls conducted by TIPP.

The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket increased its position by another $3.1 million

According to monitoring by Ember, the largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has continued to increase its position by $3.1 million in the past 6 hours. He has now invested 17.2 million USDC in Trump's victory. If Trump wins, he can earn $10.94 million. However, if Trump does not win the election, all his investments will be zero (if he does not have other hedging operations).

Harris' final message to supporters: Enjoy the election

According to Jinshi, with less than a day to go until the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, trying to show a vision of unity. Harris told those who canvassed for her: "What you have to do today, and what you have been doing, is to let us enjoy it." In one of the events, Harris once again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, but referred to Trump as "the other guy." Harris said: "I am very different from the other guy, and everyone knows that, and that's why you are here to help us get votes. The division of contemporary American politics makes people feel lonely. So I've been thinking about our campaign in the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we canvass, let us consciously build communities, build alliances, and remind people that we all have more in common than what separates us from each other."

Trump claims Harris will 'invade the Middle East' to appeal to Arab voters

According to the Times of Israel, US Republican presidential candidate Trump said that Democratic presidential candidate Harris will "invade the Middle East". This is his last appeal to Arab and Muslim voters on the eve of the election, seeking their support to win the election in the swing state of Michigan. "We are building the largest and broadest coalition in American political history. This includes a record number of Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan who want peace," Trump wrote on the social media platform X. "They know that Kamala and her warmongering cabinet will invade the Middle East, kill millions of Muslims, and start World War III," he added and promised to "Restore Peace!"

75 million people have voted in advance in the US election, and the Republican Party is trying to increase the participation rate to compete with the Democratic Party

On November 5, multiple U.S. media reported that as of November 3, 75 million voters across the United States had voted in advance or by mail, almost half of the total votes in the 2020 U.S. election. Among voters who voted early this year, 37.9% were registered as Democrats and 36.2% were registered as Republicans, with both sides evenly matched. So far, more than half of eligible voters in at least nine states have voted early.

Trump to deliver final campaign speech in Pittsburgh, targeting voters concerned about inflation and immigration

Former U.S. President Donald Trump will take the stage in Pittsburgh soon to deliver a closing speech to voters, aiming to make a final statement that only he can improve the lives of Americans. According to excerpts provided by the Trump campaign, he is expected to appeal directly to voters, saying that voters are troubled by soaring inflation and are tired of "war and chaos abroad and devastating invasions on our southern border."

Polymarket's US presidential election betting exceeds $3 billion

As of 12:15 p.m. EST on November 4, the amount of bets on the U.S. presidential election on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket exceeded $3.13 billion. Republican candidate Donald Trump's bets reached $1.2 billion. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris' bets were $782.5 million.

Musk's 'million-dollar sweepstakes' allowed to go ahead

On November 5, Musk's campaign to give away millions of dollars a day to voters dodged a legal challenge from the Philadelphia district attorney ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election after a Pennsylvania judge refused to block the practice. Pennsylvania is a key swing state. The Pennsylvania judge rejected the district attorney's request to stop the contest, which he called an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers said at a hearing that the winners of the contest were not picked at random. The winners were chosen based on whether they were "suitable" to be public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, often based on their personal stories. The judge issued his ruling shortly afterwards, without any arguments.

Harris and Trump's support in key "swing states" is now on par

On November 4, local time, according to a poll jointly conducted by The Hill and Emerson College, the support rates of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump in key "swing states" of the US election are generally comparable. Trump has an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, while Harris has an advantage in Michigan. The two have the same support in Nevada and Wisconsin.

JPMorgan: If Trump wins, the Fed may suspend its easing cycle as early as December

JPMorgan analyst David Kelly said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, then he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will rise." Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its interest rate decision on Friday, even if the election is held before then.

November 4:

Data: Polymarket's Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to 57.9%

According to Polymarket data, Trump's chances of winning have now risen to 57.9%, while Harris' chances of winning have dropped to 42.2%.

Commerzbank: Polls begin to dominate the dollar trend

The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, and currency analysts at Commerzbank said in a note that the dollar shrugged off the poor nonfarm payrolls but was affected by election polls. A well-respected poll showed Democrat Harris leading Republican Trump in the usually Republican-leaning state of Iowa, adding to uncertainty about the election outcome.

Matrixport: Bitcoin is in neutral territory ahead of the US election, as traders' anxiety rises

On November 4, Matrixport released today's chart analysis, saying that as the US presidential election approaches, market traders' anxiety has increased, but Bitcoin remains in a neutral zone. Currently, Bitcoin's 21-day relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 56%, far below the overbought critical value of 70%, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. Since a neutral RSI usually indicates that traders are less impacted when the market changes, a neutral RSI means that Bitcoin's risk premium (including high implied volatility) may decline after the election. This is in stark contrast to the bear market decline in March when the RSI value reached 80%, and in July and August, there was a sharp rebound when the RSI was only 25%. Given this situation, selling volatility this week seems to be a very attractive strategy.

Analysts: Markets should remain cautious amid uncertainty in US election

On November 4, Michael D Zezas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said that the increase in the probability of Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some people to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes that this situation is possible, but it is not the most likely scenario. Neither candidate seems to be a clear favorite to win the Electoral College election, so the long vote counting in 2020 may reappear. Given the poor performance of early voting data in the past, Morgan Stanley does not attach much importance to this data and advises not to over-interpret the short-term trend of the market. The company said that the market's short-term reaction to the election is often noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.

US election updates: Polls show Harris leading in early voting

On November 4, with less than 48 hours until the US election, more than 77.6 million votes have been cast, and new polls show Harris leading in early voting in key states. The Democratic candidate leads by 8% among voters who have voted, while his opponent Trump has an advantage among voters who are "very likely to vote but have not yet voted." According to polls by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris is slightly ahead in three swing states, Trump is ahead in one state, and three other states are too close to call.

Musk: The oppressive big government machine representing Harris’ puppets is about to fail

Musk said in a tweet about the US presidential election on X platform, "In the last election, none of my friends who supported independent candidates or swing voters voted for Trump. This time, I don’t know anyone who didn’t vote for him. More and more people confess to me that they will vote for Trump, but they are afraid to say it publicly because it may affect their friends, jobs and customers. The oppressive big government machine representing Harris’s puppets is about to fail."

Prediction platform data: Trump maintains a lead in all three prediction platforms

According to data from the prediction platforms, Trump's winning rate in the general election remains ahead on the three mainstream prediction platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Among them: Trump's winning rate on Polymarket is 56.1%, ahead of Harris's 44.1%; Trump's winning rate on Kalshi is 52%, ahead of Harris's 48%; Trump's winning rate on PredictIt is 1% ahead of Harris.

Cathie Wood: Watch Trump's stance on taxes, tariffs and monetary policy

According to Benzinga, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in a recent episode of "In the Know" that she is particularly concerned about Trump's position on taxes, tariffs and monetary policy. The market likes tax cuts and is worried that the tax cuts in the original tax bill during President Trump's presidency will expire at the end of 25 years. Trump has now expressed support for extending these tax cuts and will introduce additional personal and corporate tax cuts. "In the early days of the country, we did not have personal income taxes, all we had were tariffs, and these tariffs began during President Washington's presidency. The market began to view Trump's tariff remarks as a negotiating tactic."

Economist: If Harris wins, the stock market will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble

Capital Economics said that if Harris is elected as US president, her policies are expected to largely follow Biden's footsteps. In this scenario, the US 10-year Treasury yield will fall slightly to 4%, the dollar will weaken, and global stocks will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble, said economist Julia Belicoso. "This in turn will help maintain strong risk appetite globally and support emerging market assets," she said. Belicoso added that a Harris presidency could be particularly beneficial to emerging markets that are expected to benefit from "friendly shoring."

Record correlation between S&P 500 and election results suggests Harris could win

On November 4, historical data showed that when the S&P 500 (SPX) was higher in the three months before an election, the incumbent party candidate had an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 was lower in the three months before an election, the other party candidate had an 89% chance of winning. This has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928, according to reports. Commentators said that if the S&P 500 had not wiped out its 8% gain since August in one day, Harris would have a good chance of winning. At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience.

Analysis: No matter who is elected as the US president, BTC is expected to rise to $100,000 this year

Spot On Chain said in a post on X that the market is entering its most volatile week with the US election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but the rebound may continue. Historically, the real bull market starts after the election, and it believes that whether Trump or Harris becomes the next president, BTC will continue to rise and may reach $100,000 this year.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week

On November 4, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar in early trading due to possible position adjustments ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) global economics and market research team said in a report that the U.S. dollar "has the potential to trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said that if Trump leads in the early count of in-person voting, the dollar may climb. However, Democratic voters are more inclined to vote by mail or in person in advance, and these ballots take longer to count. Therefore, the team said that Trump's lead may narrow or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week.

Real-time update of US election poll summary: Harris leads in 3 polls

On November 4, according to the relevant page information summary, as of the 3rd local time in the United States: In the US election polls conducted by Yahoo News, ABC News/Ipsos, and Morning Consult, Harris is ahead of Trump. In the US election polls conducted by NBC News, Emerson and New York Post, the two have the same support rate; Trump is ahead of Harris only in the US election poll conducted by TIPP.

Trump said he is currently "leading by a large margin" but could lose the election and will make a speech at an appropriate time on Election Day

On the morning of November 3rd local time, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump said in a telephone interview with Jonathan Karl, chief reporter of ABC in Washington, that he was "leading by a large margin" and predicted that the winner would be known on election night. According to reports, during the interview, Karl asked Trump if the former president thought he might lose the election. "Yes, I think, you know." Trump replied. "I guess I might lose. I mean, this kind of thing could happen, right?" But he turned and said: "But I think I have a clear lead, but you can also say, yes, you might lose. Bad things may happen. You know, things always happen, but it will be interesting." As for when he will address the nation on the election results, Trump said: "I will be there at the appropriate time (on election day)."

More than 76.46 million voters in the United States have cast early votes for the presidential election

According to Jinshi, according to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, as of the afternoon of November 3rd local time, more than 76.46 million voters across the United States have voted early for the 2024 presidential election. Among them, North Carolina's early voting rate hit a record high, with more than 4.2 million votes cast at on-site polling stations.

Trump: Harris is "all talk and no action" and is unable to improve the US economy

Former US President Trump said: "Kamala (Harris) talked about fixing the economy. But why doesn't she do it? She said a few days ago, yes, I want to improve the economy. So what are you waiting for? She always says, I'm going to do this, I'm going to do that. It's all a scam. She won't do anything at all. She is incapable of doing it. Kamala's plan will cause the largest tax increase in American history, raising the tax burden of a typical family of four or five by more than $3,000 a year."

AtlasIntel poll: Trump leads Harris in 7 swing states

On November 4, according to the poll data released by AtlasIntel, a big data analysis agency, Trump is ahead of Harris in seven swing states, with particularly significant advantages in Arizona and Nevada. In the key states of the Rust Belt (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), the competition is still fierce. It is reported that the data collection time for this poll is from November 1 to 2. The sample size is: 967 people in Arizona, 1,174 people in Georgia, 1,198 people in Michigan, 782 people in Nevada, 1,310 people in North Carolina, 2,049 people in Pennsylvania, and 728 people in Wisconsin. The margin of error in Pennsylvania is ±2 percentage points, in Nevada and Wisconsin it is ±4 percentage points, and in other key states it is ±3 percentage points.

Trump: Harris and Biden's four years of lethargy have brought about an inflation disaster, and we will deal with and cope with inflation

Former US President Trump said: "I call for the death penalty for any immigrant who kills an American citizen or law enforcement officer. I will immediately ban all sanctuary cities in the United States. At the same time, as we secure our borders, we will also save our terrible economy - the numbers you saw on Thursday were indeed very bad. Harris and Biden's four years of lethargic governance have brought untold economic suffering to American workers. The disaster of inflation has made life unbearable, increasing household expenses by more than $30,000 a year. We will deal with and deal with inflation. We will pay down the debt; we will further cut taxes."

Wonderful analysis:

November 4:

Polymarket predicts the 2024 presidential mystery: What will happen if Trump loses the election?

The US election and interest rate meeting may lead to short-term extreme market conditions this week

Will Bitcoin rise regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the election?

What do economic indicators and asset classes reveal about the likelihood of election outcomes?

Sector:

Halving Tokens

Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.

Add to Favorites

Comments

Relevant content