Trump declares victory, follow the latest developments of the US election (continuously updated)

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11-04
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The 2024 US presidential election will be decided this week. Who will be the next president of the United States, Trump or Harris? In the next two days, various information about the progress of the election will emerge explosively, which will also affect the direction of the crypto market. This article will collect the latest progress and results of the election, as well as the latest trends in the crypto market.

Important time points for the US election:

  • At 13:00 Beijing time on November 5, voters in two small towns in New Hampshire were the first to vote.
  • At 19:00 Beijing time on November 5, most voting stations in the United States will open
  • From 8:00 to 11:00 Beijing time on November 6, voting stations in most states in the United States will be closed one after another, and the vote counting will begin immediately.
  • After 12:00 Beijing time on November 6, the vote count results were released one after another, and the election situation gradually became clear.

Latest News Update:

November 6:

15:32 Trump declares victory

On November 6, US Republican presidential candidate Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election in the early hours of the 6th.

14:50 US media estimates that Trump has won more than half of the electoral votes and secured victory in the 2024 presidential election

On November 6, local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was still ongoing. According to the latest estimates released by The Hill and other US media, the Republican presidential candidate Trump will receive more than half of the electoral votes and is expected to secure victory in this US presidential election. The US presidential election adopts the Electoral College system, and the 50 states allocate electoral votes according to population ratio. A candidate who obtains at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes will win.

14:48 According to Fox News: Trump won in the key state of Wisconsin. (The state has 10 electoral votes)

14:47 US media estimates that Republican presidential candidate Trump has won at least 270 electoral votes.

14:47 According to Fox News: Trump is expected to win the US presidential election.

14:46 According to Edison Research: Harris is expected to win in Connecticut (7 electoral votes).

14:42 According to Edison Research: In the key state of Michigan, it is estimated that 70.2% of the votes have been counted, and the data shows that Trump has 52.2% support, while Harris has 46% support; in the key state of Wisconsin, it is estimated that 90% of the votes have been counted, and the results show that Trump has 51.3% support and Harris has 47.1% support.

14:21 According to the Decision Office: Trump is predicted to win the US presidential election.

14:20 Trump wins Pennsylvania

According to Fox News, Trump is expected to win in the key state of Pennsylvania. (The state has 19 electoral votes)

14:09 According to Edison Research: In the key state of Pennsylvania, it is estimated that 93% of the votes have been counted, and the data shows that Trump has 51.1% support and Harris has 47.8% support.

14:08 According to the Decision Office: Trump is expected to win in Alaska. (The state has 3 electoral votes)

14:04 According to NBC News: All polling stations across the country for the 2024 US election have been closed.

13:57 The last swing state begins counting votes!

According to the Associated Press: In Nevada, after 4% of the estimated votes were counted, Trump received 71.5% support and Harris received 26.8% support.

13:55 According to Edison Research: In the key state of Michigan, 60.5% of the votes are expected to have been counted, and the data shows that Trump has 52% support, while Harris has 46.2%. In the key state of Pennsylvania, after 91.8% of the expected votes have been counted, Trump has 51.2% support, while Harris has 47.8%. In the key state of Wisconsin, 85% of the votes are expected to have been counted, and the data shows that Trump has 51.1% support and Harris has 47.3%.

13:44 Harris campaign officials said Harris will not speak to supporters tonight but will speak tomorrow.

13:38 US media predicts that Trump will win all electoral votes in the "swing state" Georgia

On November 6, local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was underway. According to the latest preliminary estimates released by several US media, Trump won 16 electoral votes in the "swing state" of Georgia. Georgia is the "swing state" with the second most electoral votes in this US presidential election, second only to Pennsylvania's 19 votes, the same as North Carolina.

12:03 According to Fox News: Harris is expected to win Maine.

12:02 According to the Associated Press: Harris is expected to win Washington State (12 electoral votes).

12:02 According to Fox News: Harris is expected to win Oregon (8 electoral votes).

12:01 According to the Associated Press: Harris is expected to win California; Trump wins Idaho. (Note: California has 54 electoral votes; Idaho has 4 electoral votes)

11:40 According to the Associated Press: Trump is expected to win in Kansas.

11:38 According to NBC News: Trump is expected to win at least three electoral votes in Nebraska.

11:28 According to the Decision Office: Trump is expected to win the swing state of Georgia.

11:10 US media predicts that Trump will temporarily win 198 electoral votes and Harris will temporarily win 99.

On November 5, local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was underway. According to the latest preliminary estimates released by several US media, Trump has currently received 198 electoral votes, while Harris has temporarily received 99 votes.

11:07 Preliminary polls in the battleground state of Nevada are released

According to Edison Research, preliminary results of Nevada exit polls showed that Trump won 43% of voters under 45 years old (up 6% from 2020), and Harris won 53%; Trump won 52% of voters over 45 years old (down 3% from 2020), and Harris won 45%; Trump won 52% of voters over 65 years old (down 1% from 2020), and Harris won 45%; Trump won 43% of female voters (down 1% from 2020), and Harris won 53%; Trump won 54% of white voters (down 2% from 2020), and Harris won 43%.

10:56 US media predicts that Trump will temporarily receive 188 electoral votes and Harris will temporarily receive 99

On November 5, local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was underway. According to the latest preliminary estimates released by several US media, Trump has currently received 188 candidate votes, while Harris has temporarily received 99 votes.

10:52 According to NBC News: Trump is expected to win Kansas.

10:50 According to the Associated Press: Trump is expected to win Missouri and Ohio.

10:23 US election real-time situation: US media predicts that Trump will temporarily win 177 electoral votes and Harris will temporarily win 99

On November 5, local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was underway. According to preliminary estimates by several US media, Trump's electoral votes rose to 177, while Harris temporarily received 99.

10:21 According to Edison Research: In Georgia, after 70% of the estimated votes were counted, Trump received 52.9% support and Harris received 46.4% support.

10:16 According to the Associated Press: In Wisconsin, after 1% of the estimated votes were counted, Trump received 62.3% support and Harris received 36.5% support.

10:03 According to the Associated Press: Trump is expected to win South Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming.

10:01 According to the Associated Press: Harris is expected to win in New York State.

10:01 According to the Associated Press: Trump is expected to win Nebraska.

10:00 According to the Decision Office: Trump is expected to win in Ohio (17 electoral votes).

9:59 According to the Decision Office: Harris is expected to win New Hampshire (4 electoral votes).

9:50 US media predicts that Trump will temporarily receive 101 electoral votes and Harris will temporarily receive 71

On November 5th local time, the vote counting for the US presidential election was underway. According to the latest forecasts from multiple US media, Trump currently has 101 electoral votes and Harris has 71.

9:49 According to Edison Research: In Georgia, it is estimated that 61.7% of the votes have been counted, Trump has 52.7% support and Harris has 46.7% support.

9:48 According to the Decision Office: Harris is expected to win in Virginia (13 electoral votes).

As of 9:34, data from the Associated Press showed that Trump was temporarily leading with 101:49.

9:31 According to the Associated Press: Harris is expected to win New Jersey (14 electoral votes).

9:30 According to the Associated Press: Trump is expected to win Arkansas (6 electoral votes).

9:23 According to Edison Research: Trump is projected as the winner in South Carolina (9 electoral votes).

9:21 According to Edison Research: In the key state of North Carolina, after 11% of the estimated votes were counted, Trump received 45.9% support, while Harris received 52.6%. According to foreign media reports, the results in North Carolina may not be announced until long after midnight local time, because early counting results show that the gap between Trump and Harris is very small.









November 5:







According to Jinshi, with less than a day to go until the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, trying to show a vision of unity. Harris told those who canvassed for her: "What you have to do today, and what you have been doing, is to let us enjoy it." In one of the events, Harris once again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, but referred to Trump as "the other guy." Harris said: "I am very different from the other guy, and everyone knows that, and that's why you are here to help us get votes. The division of contemporary American politics makes people feel lonely. So I've been thinking about our campaign in the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we canvass, let us consciously build communities, build alliances, and remind people that we all have more in common than what separates us from each other."







November 4:

According to Polymarket data, Trump's chances of winning have now risen to 57.9%, while Harris' chances of winning have dropped to 42.2%.

On November 4, Matrixport released today's chart analysis, saying that as the US presidential election approaches, market traders' anxiety has increased, but Bitcoin remains in a neutral zone. Currently, Bitcoin's 21-day relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 56%, far below the overbought critical value of 70%, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. Since a neutral RSI usually indicates that traders are less impacted when the market changes, a neutral RSI means that Bitcoin's risk premium (including high implied volatility) may decline after the election. This is in stark contrast to the bear market decline in March when the RSI value reached 80%, and in July and August, there was a sharp rebound when the RSI was only 25%. Given this situation, selling volatility this week seems to be a very attractive strategy.

On November 4, Michael D Zezas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said that the increase in the probability of Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some people to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes that this situation is possible, but it is not the most likely scenario. Neither candidate seems to be a clear favorite to win the Electoral College election, so the long vote counting in 2020 may reappear. Given the poor performance of early voting data in the past, Morgan Stanley does not attach much importance to this data and advises not to over-interpret the short-term trend of the market. The company said that the market's short-term reaction to the election is often noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.










On the morning of November 3rd local time, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump said in a telephone interview with Jonathan Karl, chief reporter of ABC in Washington, that he was "leading by a large margin" and predicted that the winner would be known on election night. According to reports, during the interview, Karl asked Trump if the former president thought he might lose the election. "Yes, I think, you know." Trump replied. "I guess I might lose. I mean, this kind of thing could happen, right?" But he turned and said: "But I think I have a clear lead, but you can also say, yes, you might lose. Bad things may happen. You know, things always happen, but it will be interesting." As for when he will address the nation on the election results, Trump said: "I will be there at the appropriate time (on election day)."




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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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