Odaily星球日报讯 德国中央合作银行分析师 Sonja Marten 在报告中称，特朗普获胜可能会降低美联储降息的可能性，从而使美元从中获益。她说，特朗普的关税和移民计划预计将引发通胀，而减税将导致短期经济繁荣。“所有这些都将大大降低美联储降息的可能性。在这种情况下，预计美元将出现明显而积极的反应。”（金十）

分析师：特朗普胜选可能降低美联储降息可能性

Odaily Odaily News Sonja Marten, an analyst at Germany&#39;s Central Cooperation Bank, said in a report that Trump&#39;s victory could reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, thereby benefiting the US dollar. She said that Trump&#39;s tariffs and immigration plans are expected to trigger inflation, while tax cuts will lead to a short-term economic boom. &quot;All of this will greatly reduce the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. In this case, the US dollar is expected to react significantly and positively.&quot; (Jinshi)

Analysts: Trump's victory may reduce the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Kaiyuan Macro believes that if Trump wins, it is very likely to trigger an initial adverse reaction in emerging markets, similar to the situation when he won in 2016. Economist Giulia Bellicoso said that Trump's victory in 2016 pushed up US government bond yields and the US dollar, leading to tightening of financial conditions in emerging markets and damaging some assets. She also said that compared to 2016, the market's expectations for Trump's victory now seem higher, but the current tariff proposals are more extreme, and the US fiscal situation is also worse. The long-term impact on emerging markets will depend on the extent to which these proposals become policies. Kaiyuan Macro believes that most of the content of Trump's fiscal plan will be diluted, and doubts whether all the tariff proposals will be implemented.

Agency: If Trump wins the election, it is likely to cause an initial adverse reaction to emerging markets

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the U.S. non-farm data in October was weak and fell short of expectations, partly affected by the impact of hurricanes and strikes. Hurricanes forced a large number of people to evacuate, significantly reducing the response rate of corporate surveys, resulting in a sharp drop in employment in the leisure and accommodation service industries, and a surge in the number of people unable to go to work due to weather reasons. Strikes also led to a significant contraction in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may be reversed in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling, and there are no signs of a rapid deterioration. Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and monetary policy will continue to return to normal, but the pace of interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected. (Gold Ten)

CICC: Taking into account the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Brian, the long-term strategist and head of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, said he expects the stock market to experience turbulence in the next 12 months. This is because the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates to very low levels as the market expects, and borrowing costs are likely to rise from now on. This may suppress lending, slow down investment, and cause the US and global stock markets to fall by 7%-12%. "I believe the crisis we face is that when interest rates start to rise, the government will not be able to continue to stimulate the economy in a rising interest rate environment, as they have lost the support of the market," Brian said. Brian's forecast may be counterintuitive to investors who have been pricing in a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, he said the US economy faces too much inflationary pressure in the medium term, so the Federal Reserve cannot be guaranteed to adopt an aggressive easing policy. (Jin Shi)