Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have predicted that Bitcoin price could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the outcome of the US election.
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is seen as more supportive of cryptocurrencies than Kamala Harris, who is likely to continue the Democratic party's hardline stance in this area over the past four years, although the party has recently shown a clear shift.
According to the analysts, the main drivers pushing Bitcoin's price include the US's lack of fiscal discipline, record debt levels, and expansionary monetary policy, all of which create high demand for stable assets. They emphasized that the success of Bitcoin ETFs trading in the US will also support this trend, indicating that "the Bitcoin genie has been let out of the bottle and it will be very difficult to reverse this process." The target Bitcoin price by the end of 2025 is set at $200,000.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani warned about the potential for short-term market volatility, depending on the election outcome. According to a poll in Iowa, Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris from 33% to around 11%. Currently, Trump is leading Harris with odds of 58.1% to 42.1% on Polymarket, with a total trading volume of $3.1 billion, making it the largest prediction market to date.
On the Kalshi platform, the gap between Trump and Harris is 54% to 46%, while national opinion polls remain very close, with Harris leading by 1% within the margin of error.
Bitcoin has declined 7% from around $73,500 on October 29 to the current $68,926. Chhugani asserted that anyone claiming the Polymarket data is manipulated in favor of Trump is unfounded, and that the data reflects the activity of an open market.
Bernstein also noted that regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins, the market has not priced in a clear outcome. They forecast that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could surpass the All-Time-High recorded in March of $73,737 to reach $80,000 to $90,000 before the inauguration on January 20. Conversely, if Harris wins, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before recovering.
Analyst Valentin Fournier said the recent adjustment was mainly due to profit-taking and temporary capital outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, he remains optimistic about the potential for price appreciation towards the end of the year, with the potential to reach a new ATH.
Some analysts suggest that a Harris victory could be favorable for Ethereum, as Ether has underperformed in 2024, when spot Ethereum ETFs could be the last products approved in a tightening regulatory environment. However, Bernstein warned that this is a "zero-sum" thinking, and a friendly SEC would open opportunities for all Cryptoassets.
Chhugani also emphasized that Bitcoin mining will continue to be an important area, due to the potential for domestic production and the energy source for AI computing. Regardless of the election outcome, the mining sector is expected to grow strongly, but mining-supportive policies may attract more investor attention.
Finally, Chhugani maintains a Longing view on various cryptocurrencies, with some Bernstein branches involved in activities such as market making or providing LP for Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms' debt securities.
Bitcoin prices can be viewed here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
Join Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io
Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin
Itadori
According to The Block
