Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通分析师 DavidKelly 表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在 12 月暂停其宽松周期。Kelly 认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降。他表示，“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，利率也将上升。”Kelly 还表示，美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息 25 个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。（金十）

小摩：若特朗普胜选，美联储最早或在12月暂停宽松周期

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan analyst David Kelly said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump&#39;s expansionary fiscal policy plan will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, &quot;If Trump wins the election, then he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will rise.&quot; Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in Friday&#39;s interest rate decision, even if the election is held before then. (Jinshi)

JPMorgan: If Trump wins, the Fed may suspend its easing cycle as early as December

The global investors are holding their breath, awaiting the results of the U.S. presidential election on the 5th. According to Bloomberg statistics, central banks of about 20 countries accounting for more than one-third of the global GDP will announce their interest rate decisions this week after the election vote, although the election results have not yet been determined. However, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve and most central banks will cut interest rates again in the coming week.

<BlockTempo - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media>Global central banks' interest rate decision schedule this week. Source: Bloomberg

20 central banks to announce interest rate decisions this week
Before the November 5 election day, the Republican...

20 central banks announced interest rate decisions this week! The Fed's interest rate cut coincides with the U.S. election, is the market going to be a huge wave?

ChainCatcher reports that the US non-farm data for October was much lower than expected. Excluding the distortion caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is also gradually cooling down. At the same time, the results of the US election will be announced soon, and Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened, leading to a reversal of the "Trump trade", adding more uncertainty to the election. According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report on Friday was disappointing, the weak US October non-farm data boosted expectations of rate cuts, and the positive financial reports of Amazon and Intel boosted the optimistic sentiment of technology stocks, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.8%. However, on a weekly basis, US stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-week winning streak, down 1.5% for the week, the S&P down 1.4%, and the Dow down 0.2%. The cryptocurrency market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump trade", and the risk-averse sentiment intensified after approaching historical highs at the end of the month. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is reported at $68,885, up 0.25%, with a 7-day gain of 1.8%. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index had a V-shaped reversal on "non-farm day" on Friday, breaking back above 104 and erasing its weekly decline, up 0.06% for the week, with the pound being the only non-US currency to rise, ending the downtrend of the previous two days due to the budget case sell-off, but still down for the sixth consecutive week, the longest in six years. Spot gold rose slightly after the non-farm data on Friday, but subsequently fell back as the US dollar and US bond yields remained strong, ultimately closing down 0.32%, the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, US crude oil production hit a new high, and weak economic data such as non-farm data raised demand concerns, causing international oil prices to retreat from highs on Friday, with oil prices down more than 3% for the week. This week will be a week that changes history, as the final vote in the US election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, and the election results are expected to be basically determined by noon Beijing time on the 6th. The current election situation is deadlocked, with swing state polls constantly flipping, and the latest poll data showing no clear advantage between Trump and Harris. Some investors have chosen to take profits on some Trump-oriented positions, especially those related to Trump's policies and opinion poll improvements. The current market sentiment is generally cautious, with increased uncertainty. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stable coin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates this week, the "Trump deal" is reversed, and the uncertainty of the election increases

<The Possible Three Scenarios of the US Presidential Election>
- The winner may be determined on the same night
- Deadlock in swing states
- Prolonged legal battle amid disputes
- Trump declares victory prematurely, possibly leading to riots
<Did investors take profits last week?>
<The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed has reached 99%>
The US presidential election will officially take place on November 5th local time. The earliest voting areas to close will be parts of Indiana and Kentucky, which will end at 7 AM Taiwan time on November 6th, while the latest will be until 2 AM Taiwan time on November 7th.

Investors are the happiest in this situation: 4 scenarios for the U.S. presidential election; if Trump and He Jinli fight a legal battle, the market may plummet...