Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The US presidential election will officially begin tomorrow, but it seems that many readers still have some doubts about when the final election results can be obtained.
Odaily Note: For an introduction to some basic concepts about the US presidential election, you can read 《Must-read before the US election: All you need to know》 first.
In general, preliminary results can be obtained on the same night
According to the data compiled by Yahoo Finance, from 7:00 am Beijing time on November 6 (5:00 pm Eastern Time on November 5) to 2:00 pm Beijing time on November 6 (1:00 am Eastern Time on November 6), the polls in various states will gradually close, and then the states will successively announce the results of the popular vote after completing the vote counting. However, due to the differences in election methods, ballot processing, and counting rules in each state, the time when the results are announced will also vary.
However, considering the actual situation of the election, the overall trend of the election is basically determined by the situation in the seven swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Among them, Georgia will be the first to complete the state's voting at 8:00 am Beijing time on November 6, while Pennsylvania, the "battlefield state" with the most electoral votes among the swing states, will complete the state's voting at 9:00 am Beijing time on November 6, and Nevada will be the last to complete the state's voting at 11:00 am Beijing time on November 6.
Based on the above situation, major US mainstream media such as CNN predict that under normal circumstances, the election results can be preliminarily determined on the election night, which is expected to be around noon or afternoon on November 6 in Beijing time.
Will there be "abnormal" situations?
If there are normal situations, there will naturally be abnormal situations as well.
Looking back on the real history of the US presidential election in the past 236 years, there have indeed been some situations where the results were "delayed". The causes of the "delay" vary, such as the vote count being too close or even a tie, multiple candidates failing to obtain the minimum number of electoral votes, the vote counting time being unexpectedly extended, or a key state having to recount the votes due to the extremely close vote distribution...
In 1800, the US presidential election once encountered an extreme situation of a tie between the candidates, which forced the US to amend the election rules (but there is still an extremely low probability of a tie occurring now, which will be discussed in detail later); the 1824 election also saw a situation where none of the candidates obtained enough electoral votes, which was the first and only time in history that the president was elected by the House of Representatives.
Even setting aside these "American old almanacs" of more than 200 years, there have also been multiple elections in the 21st century where the results were delayed, including the 2020 election in which Trump was personally involved, and the 2000 election, which took 36 days to produce a result.
2020 election (delayed by 4 days)
The 2020 election day was November 3 local time (the US presidential election is held on the first Tuesday in November every four years), but due to the impact of the pandemic, the number of voters choosing to vote by mail increased significantly, which also increased the time required for vote counting.
It wasn't until November 7 that the election results were preliminarily determined, as Biden consecutively won the swing states of Pennsylvania and Nevada, securing more than 270 electoral votes.
It is worth mentioning that in this election, Trump had declared victory prematurely, and after the preliminary results were released, he repeatedly criticized the Democratic Party for election fraud, but ultimately failed to change the election results - if Harris had won, Trump might have caused another uproar...
2000 election (delayed by 36 days)
The 2000 election day was November 7. Initially, everything went smoothly, and by the morning of November 8, as the states gradually announced the vote counting results, Democratic candidate Gore had obtained 250 electoral votes, while Republican candidate George W. Bush was closely behind with 246 votes, with both sides only one step away from the 270 votes needed to win.
At this point, Florida, with 25 electoral votes, was about to be counted. Whichever candidate won Florida would directly cross the 270-vote threshold and ascend to the presidency. In the end, Florida announced that Bush had won the state, but the vote count showed that Bush only had 1,700 more popular votes than Gore, a difference of only 0.03% of the state's total votes. According to Florida's local laws, when the vote difference between the two candidates is less than 0.5%, a recount must be conducted.
On November 10, Florida completed the machine recount, but Bush's lead had been significantly reduced to 327 votes. Gore immediately filed a petition with the local court for a manual recount. Subsequently, the two sides engaged in fierce legal battles over whether to conduct a manual recount, the scope of the recount, and the final deadline for the recount. Until December 9, the US Supreme Court ordered the suspension of the manual recount in Florida, and on December 11, it ruled that no further manual recount would be conducted, and the voting results already signed by the Secretary of State would be upheld. Gore finally conceded defeat on December 13.
By this time, 36 days had passed since the election day.
In the most extreme case, could there be a 269:269 tie?
Returning to this election, although the probability is extremely low, a 269:269 tie is still possible.
For example, if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, and wins one electoral vote in Nebraska (Biden won these states in 2020), but loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, then the two sides' votes would be 269-269.
As shown in the image, the election website 270 to Win also lists some other potential tie scenarios.
If such a situation occurs, how will the president be decided?
According to the 12th Amendment enacted after the 1800 election, if no candidate receives enough electoral votes (now 270), the new Congress sworn in on January 3 will elect the president, and the Senate will elect the vice president, a process known as the "contingent election".
According to the Congressional Research Service analysis, if such an extreme situation occurs, Congress is expected to hold the "contingent election" on January 6. Considering that in the "contingent election" mode, each state has one vote, and the Republican Party currently controls more House of Representatives delegations, this means that in this scenario, Trump is more likely to be elected president.
Wait, there's an even more extreme situation - if the House of Representatives fails to elect a president by January 20, the vice president elected by the Senate will become the acting president... But the probability of this happening is almost impossible.
Await the results
In summary, the various unexpected introductions of the 1800, 1824, 2000, and 2020 elections are only to illustrate that there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the time it takes for the results of the US presidential election to be released, but under normal circumstances, the market still expects the new occupant of the White House to be preliminarily determined on November 6.
You will need to wait another day or two to witness the final results. At that time, the confusing market trend may also become a little clearer.
