1. The "Trump trade" is receding, the three major US stock indexes are falling across the board, the market's demand for risk aversion is increasing, and the key swing states in the election are still tense, and it is still uncertain when the results will come out after tomorrow.
2. Yesterday, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $540.91 million, and the net inflow of BlackRock's IBIT was $38.58 million yesterday.
3. The largest address on Polymarket betting on Trump's victory, 0xd23...f29, has continued to increase its position by $3.1 million in Trump's victory in the past 6 hours. Currently, the probability of Trump on Polymarket has been pulled back to 58.9% against 41%.
4. The US election is not yet settled, and Mentougou is causing trouble again. The Mentougou cold wallet has transferred out 32,371 BTC (about $2.19 billion).
Suspend operations and wait patiently for the BTC trend to turn better.
Last night, I saw the news that Trump was leading in the swing states. However, the bears still took advantage of the low liquidity to amplify the panic and heavily sell the market, blowing up a lot of contracts.
Bitcoin continued to fall with the market sentiment last night, and the downward trend before the election is still relatively healthy, on the one hand due to the uncertainty of the election results, and on the other hand due to the liquidation of long positions.
This wave has fallen about 9.1% from the highest point of 73,620. Currently, the 4-hour level has shown a strong signal, and the support at around 66,000 is the bottom of this retracement.
Currently, all relevant stakeholders around the world are waiting for the US election, so everyone please be patient a little longer.
In the past two days, talking about anything else is meaningless, as the focus of the whole world is now on the election, which has overshadowed other major macroeconomic events such as the FOMC interest rate decision. Everything will revolve around the election.
Currently, the rise and fall of prices is almost meaningless, and the real start of the short-term victory and defeat will only come when the election results are out.
I. The latest situation of the election
1. The authoritative odds market in the US: Predict shows that Harris' winning rate has reversed to lead, and Kalshi shows that the two are tied in winning rate; many people have been misled by the odds on the non-US betting market Polymarket.
2. Polls: Currently, of the 7 swing states, Trump is weakening in Michigan and Wisconsin, and his advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada is almost gone, while he is still leading in the polls in the other three states.
3. Yesterday, a poll showed that the red state of Iowa was reversed by Harris; I analyzed several polls and on the whole, Trump is still leading.
The overall election situation is tense, making the market unable to take sides.
Election Day is November 5, but the election results will take 3-7 days to come out, and the market will not be calm during this period.
II. The election result is decisive for the medium-term trend of BTC
1. If Trump is elected, the promised favorable policies have a chance to be realized, and the probability of US institutions betting on BTC will increase greatly.
The fundamentals of BTC as digital gold will be greatly improved.
2. If Harris is elected, the SEC is expected to continue its harsh crypto policies, and the BTC bulls will be severely hit in the next few months, and some BTC ETF investors will stop out.
Combining the different expectations of monetary policy and long-term inflation between the two, the election result will affect the trend of the crypto market in the next 3-6 months.
III. If Trump loses unexpectedly, where will BTC go?
1. The market has priced in Trump's victory in the past two weeks.
The decline in the winning rate will lead to the withdrawal of investors who participated due to the Trump's favorable policies.
The current on-chain BTC contract positions are at a high level, and the funding rate is not low; when the institutions return to work on Monday, the probability of further downward pressure is high.
2. If Trump loses unexpectedly, BTC is expected to fall below $60,000 within a week, and enter a 5-wave downtrend.
There will be no good days in the next quarter; the only driving force for BTC will be the Fed's rate cuts; by mid-2025, BTC is expected to break through $74,000, but it will be difficult to break $100,000.
IV. What to do next?
1. Wait for the results of a few swing states like Pennsylvania to come out, and the overall situation will be basically determined, then take action accordingly.
2. If Trump wins as expected:
Go back to full spot positions; focus on increasing positions in BTC, Doge, Sol.
US stocks: increase positions in TSLA, CLSK, MSTR, Coin; 3. If Harris wins unexpectedly:
Reduce positions in all cryptocurrencies, keep spot positions below 30%.
The new discussion group has been set up! Now we are preparing to reorganize the discussion group, and as long as the overall market returns to an upward trend, there will be many opportunities for altcoins to explode. If you want to join the group, please feel free to message me, and I will add you to the group one by one!
Number of members: temporarily limited to 50, with a focus on spot trading.
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