The Election is Underway
After 12:00 pm Beijing time on November 6 (after 11:00 pm EST on November 5): As the results from various states are released, the nationwide election results are gradually becoming clearer.
Dates to watch after Election Day:
November 6 to December 11: States certify election results
December 17: The Electoral College meets to cast official ballots
January 6, 2025: The U.S. Congress convenes to count and certify the Electoral College votes
January 20, 2025: The elected U.S. President is officially sworn in
In my opinion, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes the U.S. President may not determine the price growth of Bitcoin.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin may break through $100,000 after the U.S. election.
Compared to previous cycles, BTC has been undervalued, measured from the cycle low or halving.
While we wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market will continue to be volatile. In the short term, the election will completely determine the price trend. However, once the situation stabilizes, if the voting pattern is repeated, Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant rebound.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is about to experience its fourth U.S. election. Data from the previous three shows that the largest cryptocurrency has always risen afterwards, never falling back to the election day price. If this trend repeats, the BTC price should reach its peak about a year later.
2012
In the U.S. election held on November 5, 2012, Bitcoin hovered around $11. The cycle's peak occurred in November 2013, when the price soared nearly 12,000%, with Bitcoin climbing above $1,100.
2016
Fast forward four years. In the first week of November, the price of Bitcoin was around $700. It reached a peak of around $18,000 in December 2017, an increase of about 3,600%.
2020
After the most recent vote, the 2020 November election, coinciding with the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin rose 478% a year later, reaching a market high of around $69,000.
After each event, as Bitcoin's price is much higher than four years earlier, the jump in magnitude has decreased, providing diminishing returns. The percentage decrease between the first and second figures is 70%. Between the second and third, it is 87%.
If we continue the trend and assume that this time the decline will be around 90%, this means a post-election rebound of about 47.8%. This would put Bitcoin at around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The election may give birth to the biggest dark horse!
Doge
Doge, the high-cap meme coin, is the first meme coin. Doge has taken on political overtones, which is related to Musk's support for Trump. On August 20, Musk tweeted about creating a "Department of Political Efficiency" (D.O.G.E.), a concept proposed by the Doge community. Trump responded that if elected, he would establish this department and audit the government's finances to reduce waste, thus linking the Doge price to the election.
It now has a market cap of $25.5B, with a +48% change in the last 14 days, driven by Musk's posts and Trump's campaigning.
If you have been chasing the trend and getting trapped frequently, without the latest crypto news and direction, scan the QR code below. I will try my best to answer any questions you may have recently, and if you are confused about the future, I will share my strategy layout in the small circle! Welcome to join us to grasp the next hot spot and maximize investment returns!
That's it for the article. I will do a more detailed analysis in the discussion group. If you want to join my circle, please contact me directly, the WeChat below.
