Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
The crypto market has never lacked hot spots, and almost every period, a new important event becomes the focus of attention and discussion. For example, the focus event in September was the attention on whether the Federal Reserve would announce a rate cut, followed by a new round of wealth creation stories for various MemeCoin, and now it seems that everyone is again concerned about whether Trump or Harris will be elected president. Perhaps, after the dust of the US election settles, the market will turn to other directions and choose new focus points.
Currently, the US election is about to determine the winner, and according to the forecast of some foreign media, the new owner of the White House may be initially determined as early as noon or afternoon on November 6 (Beijing time). And today (November 5), due to the uncertainty of traders and investors about the election results, the bears seem to have manipulated the market again based on the news from the mainstream media, and BTC has dropped to around $66,800 at the lowest, but a small rebound has soon appeared, and as of the writing of this article, the price of BTC is $68,000. As shown in the figure below.
Over the next two days, the progress and news related to the US election are expected to continue to be the focus in major media or social platforms, and given the great difference in the views of Trump and Harris on BTC, this will also continue to affect the short-term trend of the crypto market, and overall, it seems that these uncertainties are causing continuous volatility in the short-term market.
So what might happen next? Let's first take a look at the historical price changes of BTC:
If we simply review the history, it seems that BTC has experienced a certain pullback before the US presidential election, for example, I saw a comparative chart shared by a member in the group:
In 2016, BTC fell 10% before the US election
In 2020, BTC fell 6% before the US election
And this time, BTC has already fallen 6%. As shown in the figure below.
In terms of trend, the market's view was mostly expecting Trump to win, as Trump has been seen by many analysts as a "crypto-friendly" president. If we continue to compare the data on the Polymarket platform, we can also find some interesting things, such as:
Starting from October 6, Trump's winning odds began to rise, and BTC also started to rise almost at the same time.
On October 30, Trump's winning odds reached a peak, and the price of BTC also reached a peak almost at the same time.
In addition, the previous article of Talk Li Talk Outside also shared another interesting historical comparative data, let's take a look:
The first BTC halving (November 2012), the US election (November 2012), 5 months later: BTC reached ATH (all-time high) in April 2013
The second BTC halving (July 2016), the US election (November 2016), 13 months later: BTC reached ATH in December 2017
The third BTC halving (May 2020), the US election (November 2020), 12 months later: BTC reached ATH in November 2021
The fourth BTC halving (April 2024), the US election (November 2024), then what?
Viewed this way, the US election cycle seems to be quite consistent with the growth cycle of BTC. Of course, historical data cannot be used to carve a boat and seek the lost sword, the above data we can just take as an interesting reference.
But what if the final result is a Harris victory? Will the market immediately declare a new bear market cycle? How should we deal with it?
Some analysts believe that if Harris ultimately wins, it will definitely be a negative factor for the crypto market, especially for some Altcoins that are seen as having securities attributes, which are likely to continue to be subject to the SEC's harsh but unclear regulation, which may lead to another round of larger declines.
But there are also more optimistic analysts who believe that whether Trump or Harris wins, BTC will continue to rise in the medium and long term, and may even reach $100,000 this year.
We tend to agree with the latter view, that is, we also believe: no matter who is finally elected president, the crypto market is unlikely to directly enter a bear market, and we still believe that a new round of good bull market will appear in the next six months or a year.
This view has actually been expressed in some of our previous articles in Talk Li Talk Outside, because in our view, although the US presidential election is quite important to the market, after all, a new official takes office and the different styles of presidents may mean some different new policies, but the factors that can directly affect the medium and long-term trend of the crypto market are still the Fed's rate cuts, changes in global liquidity (M2 money supply increase), the global large-scale adoption of ETFs... and other such important trends and factors, that is, we believe that these broader macrotrends will not undergo major changes.
So if you are very concerned about the short-term fluctuations that may occur in the market, then you may consider doing some hedging operations. And if you are making a medium and long-term investment plan, then you don't need to do any fancy operations now, just wait patiently for the BTC trend to turn better.
We still stick to our previous suggestions, manage your positions according to your own risk preferences, and put the majority of your positions in BTC. Then, with a small position, you can play the high-risk MemeCoin with a mindset of zero. And it seems that the trend of MemeCoin is also at a stage of periodic peak, maybe we will soon see the possibility of some narratives quickly rotating. As for Altcoins, according to the discussion of the group members, we can focus on the top projects in the hot sectors (or you can also consider the sectors that were hot last year but not this year), and I agree with this idea, because the relative risk will be a little lower.
In short, as mentioned at the beginning of this article, the crypto market has never lacked hot news or events, just like now no one cares about the BTC halving event, no one cares about the governments' selling of BTC, and no one cares about whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates... maybe in a few months, who the US president is will also be of no concern to anyone.
The hot news or events in the market will always appear in front of the retail investors at the most appropriate time, we should not be disturbed by various news and disrupt our own plans and strategies. The only thing we should care about is: do you have BTC in your hands, and is your BTC increasing or decreasing!
