Odaily星球日报讯 虽然现在就对白宫之争下结论还为时尚早，因为许多关键的战场州仍未决出胜负，但从政府债券市场到博彩网站等各个领域都有明显的资金流向，这表明特朗普距离胜利已经不远了。美国 10 年期政府债券收益率上升了近 20 个基点，而澳大利亚同类债券收益率上升了近 12 个基点。美元走高，股票市场普遍走强。贝莱德固定收益部门主管克雷格・瓦迪表示，利率市场正在“熊陡化”，这是特朗普获胜预期下的走势。（金十）

贝莱德：市场各方面均显示特朗普将获胜

Odaily Odaily News: Although it is too early to draw conclusions about the race for the White House, as many key battleground states remain undecided, there are clear capital flows in areas ranging from government bond markets to gambling websites, indicating that Trump is not far from victory. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose by nearly 20 basis points, while the yield on similar Australian bonds rose by nearly 12 basis points. The dollar rose and stock markets generally strengthened. Craig Vardy, head of BlackRock&#39;s fixed income department, said that the interest rate market is &quot;bear steepening&quot;, which is the trend under the expectation of Trump&#39;s victory. (Jinshi)

BlackRock: All aspects of the market indicate that Trump will win

Ebury stated that if Trump wins the US presidential election, the US dollar may rise; if Harris wins, the US dollar may fall. Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan said in the report that a Trump victory would boost the US dollar, especially if the Republican Party also controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, as investors will take into account factors such as US tax cuts, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the rise of trade protectionism and the increase in geopolitical risks. In the event of a Harris victory, the volatility of the currency will be more controlled. However, the US dollar may still experience a "quite violent sell-off".

Strategist: Dollar will rise if Trump wins, fall if Harris wins

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown said that a Trump victory could lead the market to focus on reflation, expected tax cuts, and potential tariff issues. The initial market reaction may include a rise in the US dollar and a decline in government bonds. Expectations of reduced regulatory burden may boost the stock market, especially energy and defense stocks. He said a Harris victory could lead to a weakening of the US dollar, as hedging operations related to Trump are unwound, and the foreign exchange market sensitive to trade will "breathe a sigh of relief". Expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy may put pressure on government bonds, while concerns about stricter regulation may put pressure on the stock market. However, the decline may be quickly bought on dips, and clean energy and technology stocks may perform better. This largely depends on the composition of Congress. For those who want to know if this election will change the long-term macroeconomic or market outlook, Brown's answer is "absolutely not". (Jinshi)

Analyst: This US election will not change the long-term macro market outlook

According to the <Odaily> report, Kai Investment Macro believes that if Harris is elected as the US president, her policies are expected to largely follow in Biden's footsteps. Economist Julia Belyaeva said that in this case, the US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline slightly to 4%, the US dollar will weaken, and global stock markets will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble. She said: "This in turn will help maintain a strong risk appetite globally, supporting emerging market assets." Belyaeva added that a Harris presidency may be particularly favorable for emerging markets that are poised to benefit from "friendly offshoring".