The dust of the election has settled, and Donald Trump has been re-elected as the President of the United States.
The funds could no longer be restrained, and Bitcoin violently surged when it turned green in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, with the super-asset with a market value of trillions of dollars quickly rising 3 points, breaking through the key integer positions consecutively, and the market finally waited for Bitcoin's new historical high.
$75,000, a brand new future.
The new high means that everything will be re-planned, so how do the top traders view Bitcoin after Trump's election? BlockBeats has compiled some for your reference.
The Impact of Trump's Inauguration on Bitcoin
PlanB: BTC May Reach $1 Million by the End of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, and he enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge.
In his forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific figures based on his S2F model:
October: A classic bull month, BTC reaches $70,000
PlanB predicts that Bitcoin prices will see a strong surge in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased global market volatility and the recovery of investor confidence, which are also the points in history where Bitcoin has often shown price surges.
November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000
If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes that Bitcoin will reach a critical turning point. He points out that Trump's inauguration may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, thereby ending the "war" on cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy constraints on regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will directly push Bitcoin prices to $100,000.
December: Massive inflow of ETF funds, Bitcoin soars to $150,000
PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and expects a large amount of funds to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, further driving Bitcoin prices to $150,000.
January 2025: The crypto industry returns to the US, Bitcoin rises to $200,000
With the open crypto currency policy of the Trump administration, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing Bitcoin prices to $200,000.
February 2025: "Power Law" team takes profits, price falls back to $150,000
The correction in February is a prediction of the adjustment in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that the profit-taking of investors will lead to a temporary pullback of Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be temporary and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.
March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000
Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries will successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, the US will also launch a Bitcoin strategic reserve under Trump's push. Subsequently, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, further pushing Bitcoin to rise to $500,000.
June 2025: AI boosts, price reaches $600,000
In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence will start to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price increase, pushing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO subsides, price reaches $1 million
In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. By then, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have allocation for global investors.
2026-2027—Market Adjustment and Bear Market
In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to pull back from $1 million to $500,000, entering the distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB summarized that the key to this forecast lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin prices are expected to jump in growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, further consolidating its position as "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's forecast lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He points out that investors like scarcity, and now there are basically 3 choices for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market value $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.
Alex Krüger: Focus on Spot BTC on Election Night
Argentine economist, trader and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election result will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:
Trump wins: Bitcoin target price of $90,000 by year-end. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin prices will quickly surge to $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin prices will "surge rapidly" because the market has already partially priced in the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. But there is still a certain degree of underpricing, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the confirmation of the news.
Krüger emphasizes the importance of timing, especially for leveraged traders. He points out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, Bitcoin prices will rise rapidly, and Krüger's personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly in Bitcoin and some tech stocks like Nvidia), and he believes that spot positions should be the main focus, avoiding the volatility risk brought by high leverage.
At the same time, Krüger said that regardless of the election result, he remains optimistic about the US stock market, pointing out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, as Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with the US stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, which in turn will benefit Bitcoin.
Currently, Krüger points out that the market has already partially priced in Trump's victory, and for the strategy on election night, Krüger said he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot, and take a long-term approach when Trump wins, such as increasing his holdings of Solana (SOL).
The Giver: Expect a Decline in the Medium Term After the Election
The Giver is an anonymous veteran investor with rich experience in both buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investments in special situations, providing a different perspective. Compared to Krüger and PlanB, The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focused on the short-term, believing that the Bitcoin rally driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the driving effect of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may face a downward adjustment after the election.
The driving force behind the latest Bitcoin rally is event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, i.e., some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than an overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for the long term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness," and Bitcoin's price may face selling pressure after the election.
The lackluster performance of Altcoins is related to the concentration of Bitcoin. In his view, the inflow of funds has mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, and has not widely flowed into Altcoins, leading to their poor performance. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than a positive outlook on the entire cryptocurrency market.
The Giver expects that this week, Bitcoin's open interest and positions will continue to be crowded, even reaching new highs. He pointed out that this "right-side effect" may lead to a short-term surge in Bitcoin's price, but due to the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to continue into the next year. This short-term effect increases the possibility that Bitcoin's price will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is insufficient to support a long-term uptrend.
Markus: Hedging strategy of going long BTC and short SOL
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained widespread recognition in the investment community a few months ago for his highly accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap.
Markus' latest analysis is based on the latest signal model of 10X Research, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87% and usually achieves results within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise 8% within the next two weeks, 13% within one month, 26% within two months, and 40% within three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price may break through $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of around $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will lead to a more crypto-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market upward.
Of course, he also prepared for unexpected situations, so Markus' recommended strategy is to "go long Bitcoin, short Solana" to hedge the uncertainty brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase the uncertainty in the market, which may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, Bitcoin's price could rise to $125,000 before the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on Election Day (November 5), Bitcoin may stabilize around $73,000. In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, and then another 10% in the following days, with the rise in market confidence and the relaxation of the regulatory environment being the main driving forces.
Whoever becomes president, how will other assets be affected?
The market generally believes that trading will be more complex if Trump wins. Asset classes that are expected to be bullish include gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, while US stocks and the US dollar may see short-term gains but medium-term pullbacks. Assets such as crude oil, US Treasuries, and copper may face some negative impacts.
US Stocks
If Trump wins, small-cap stocks and certain industries are expected to benefit, particularly traditional energy, firearms manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. Due to Trump's tendency towards low taxes and reduced regulation, especially positive for domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and extractive industries may drive small-cap stock gains, with the current Russell 2000 index (small-cap benchmark) already reflecting this expectation, having risen about 4% since early October.
US Dollar and Foreign Exchange Market
The expectation of a Trump victory has already manifested in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is seen as one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policy. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trump's election prospects have risen, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the US dollar has clearly strengthened after Trump's statements on Mexican product import tariffs.
Oil and Copper
If Trump wins, the traditional energy industry (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policy tends to reduce regulation, support domestic extraction and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on the relevant markets.
US Treasuries
A Trump victory is a short-term positive for US Treasuries, and in the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts say smart money has already started to focus on the bond market. The yield on US Treasuries may rise due to the expectation of a Trump victory, but in the long run, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, US Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.
Gold
As the most traditional inflation hedge tool, gold seems to continue rising regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the US government's debt problem will continue to expand, and it will be diluted through inflation, making gold and Bitcoin the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold, with its safe-haven properties, will attract investors to cope with the potential depreciation of the US dollar and economic uncertainty.
However, the Standard Chartered Bank analyst pointed out that gold is more likely to rise after a Trump victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending if Trump wins, which will drive up inflation in the short term and further increase the demand for gold.
Suddenly becoming a loyal crypto player, how much does Trump like Bitcoin?
There was a time when Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, during his presidency, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "worthless" and believing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He stated that Bitcoin "is not money" and is highly volatile.
After leaving the White House, Trump continued to hold a reserved attitude in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the US dollar should be the world's only reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was basically negative. But the 2021 NFT craze quickly began to influence Trump's views.
The story starts in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "winter," with many crypto projects on the verge of bankruptcy and market confidence low. It was then that Trump's long-time advisor Bill Zane appeared in his life, bringing a suggestion that could change Trump's mind: issuing Trump-themed Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).
Trump expressed unexpected interest in this - although he didn't like the term "NFT," preferring to call them "digital trading cards." Despite the seeming oddity, these cards were highly popular, with each one selling for $99 and being snapped up almost immediately after release. Trump's NFTs not only brought him tens of millions of dollars in revenue, but also introduced him to a new and powerful support group in the crypto community.
Therefore, Trump's attitude towards crypto has undergone a complete reversal in these past few years.
November 1, 2024 marks the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin whitepaper. Former President Trump expressed his blessings for Bitcoin and stated that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, even calling on his supporters to help him realize his vision of "Bitcoin Made in America". At this point, he is no longer an opponent, but rather a "presidential candidate" who is a proponent of cryptocurrencies.
The most iconic event was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, and even clearly understood the biggest pain point of the crypto community, promising to fire the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto".
He bluntly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy", and that he will make America a "Bitcoin superpower", hoping to lead the global crypto industry's development through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, saying that if Bitcoin is to "reach the moon", he hopes the US can be its navigator.
Trump attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: WSJ
In his speech, Trump forcefully positioned himself in opposition to the Democratic Party's harsh stance on crypto, especially in contrast to Elizabeth Warren, who is known for crypto regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he will create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Council", which immediately sparked enthusiastic applause and cheers from the audience. Even more shocking was his statement that the market capitalization of Bitcoin could one day surpass that of gold, and his public criticism of the Biden and Harris administration's anti-crypto policies.
During the conference, Trump underwent a "public awakening", no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but a spirited defender of Bitcoin and the free market. The audience was infected by his change in attitude and saw him as a "hero" of the crypto community.
Trump attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: The New York Times
Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3900% during his previous presidential term, from less than $1,000 to over $30,000. His speech not only ignited the entire audience, but also earned the support of crypto industry giants like Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and a16z founder Marc Andreessen.
In addition to Bitcoin itself, Trump has gradually recognized the important role of Bitcoin mining in US energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several major Bitcoin mining companies in the US and promised to provide strong policy support for crypto mining activities. He even posted on the Truth Social platform that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins are made in America". In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity, but also a symbol of America's will to resist central banks.
In September, Trump used Bitcoin to purchase a cheeseburger at a Bitcoin-themed bar called PubKey in New York, a move that also pushed the possibility of Bitcoin transitioning from a financial investment to a daily transaction currency, and became a symbol of his crypto stance.
Trump has also made greater promises to the crypto community. Not only has he publicly stated that he will maintain Bitcoin's strategic reserves, but he also plans to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life in prison for operating a Dark Web platform. Through these radical measures, Trump has successfully positioned himself as the "savior" of the crypto community, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and to make America the global center of cryptocurrencies.
Amid the uncertainty of whether Trump will return to the White House, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. In the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainty have all driven Bitcoin to new heights. If Trump regains power, his support for cryptocurrencies could undoubtedly trigger a new market frenzy, propelling Bitcoin to new highs and even reshaping the financial landscape of America.
