As a crypto-friendly president overall, with the help of crypto enthusiasts like Musk around him, to what extent can he promote the development of the crypto industry after taking office, and what kind of wealth codes might he bring? I'll make some wild guesses.
1. The global legalization of cryptocurrencies begins
Trump has promised to fire the current chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, and appoint regulators who are more supportive of cryptocurrencies. This could bring a clearer and more friendly regulatory framework to the cryptocurrency industry, promoting its development. In addition, he plans to establish a presidential-level Bitcoin and cryptocurrency advisory committee, aimed at developing transparent regulatory guidelines for the industry, promoting the legalization and popularization of cryptocurrencies, and all of this could happen within the first 100 days of his official presidency.
Other American followers such as Europe, Australia and New Zealand will follow the United States in gradually relaxing regulations on the legalization of cryptocurrencies, and gradually remove the "criminal tool" stigma on cryptocurrencies.
With the removal of the "stigmatization" of the cryptocurrency industry, the number of crypto practitioners will increase significantly, and their social status will be improved. More elites from other industries will join the Crypto industry, and the whole society will begin to formally treat the Crypto Industry as a regular social industry division.
2. The rise of crypto-friendly banks and enterprises
Undoubtedly, after the collapse of the previous wave of crypto-friendly banks, the U.S. banking industry has collectively made efforts to put shackles on the in-and-out of cryptocurrencies. But with the change in the regulatory environment, where cryptocurrencies are no longer stigmatized, new crypto-friendly banks will emerge and make a killing through policy dividends.
The traditional banking industry will face certain competitive pressure and be forced to innovate in order to maintain market share. This may prompt banks to accelerate their digital transformation and develop services compatible with cryptocurrencies. Some banks may choose to cooperate with cryptocurrency companies to provide custody, trading and other related services, and even the emergence of pure cryptocurrency banks (no longer handling non-crypto-related business).
Legalization is also likely to attract a large number of institutions and enterprises to enter the cryptocurrency market to make a fortune, in addition to banks, there are also funds, insurance companies, security companies, education and training, etc., driving more employees and customers to pay attention to crypto assets.
It is expected that during Trump's term, except for China, the crypto users of quite a few other countries will no longer be troubled by the frequent freezing of their accounts when transferring funds in and out of exchanges to banks.
3. A new global wave of crypto user growth begins
If the U.S. successfully promotes the legalization of cryptocurrencies, the crypto user base in the U.S. is expected to double, with an additional 20 million to 50 million U.S. users. The influence of the U.S. will further guide the legalization process in Europe, Asia and other regions, and bring in crypto user growth that is multiple times that of the U.S.
The legalization in the U.S. will send a positive signal to the world, especially for developing countries, which may significantly increase the acceptance of cryptocurrencies among the population. It is estimated that within the next four years, the global crypto user base may increase by 100 million to 150 million, or even more. Especially for those who have been hesitant before, they may burst out with great enthusiasm to enter the market under the dual influence of legalization and missing the pump.
4. DeFi narrative reactivates financial innovation and financial inclusion:
• The legalization of cryptocurrencies can allow more people to enter the financial system, especially those on the margins of the traditional banking system. Through decentralized finance (DeFi) services, people can access loan, savings and payment services without going through banks.
• For developing countries, especially regions with weak financial infrastructure, cryptocurrencies can provide new financial tools and improve economic participation.
Many narratives that were tried but failed to succeed during the DeFi Summer can start again, such as RWA, fixed income, etc.
5. Crypto payments, cross-border payments and remittance revolution:
• Legalization will make the widespread adoption of crypto credit cards legitimate, with everyone having one/multiple crypto Visa cards, and using cryptocurrencies to meet household needs will become the norm. (I'm really looking forward to the return of Binance's Visa card)
As the acceptance scenarios of stablecoins expand, more and more individuals and businesses are willing to hold stablecoins, making cross-border payments more convenient and low-cost. Cryptocurrencies can complete international transfers quickly and at low cost, and the market share of the traditional banking system in the cross-border market will gradually decrease due to cumbersome procedures and high fees, and eventually become history.
• For countries dependent on international remittances, significantly reducing remittance costs can greatly increase household income and promote local economic development. This will make these countries more crypto-friendly, such as the Philippines.
6. Diversification of investment markets:
• Once legalized, cryptocurrencies may attract a large number of traditional investors and institutional funds, further stabilizing and expanding the market size. Various financial products, such as Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), will become more widespread.
• For global investors, cryptocurrencies will become a legitimate asset class that can diversify investment portfolios and mitigate risks. A large number of wealth management companies, family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and even conservative old money like Warren Buffett may consider allocating crypto assets. (If Berkshire Hathaway really gets involved, that will be the time when capital is most FOMO-ing.)
7. Transformation of global trade patterns:
• Legalization may introduce new payment methods for global trade, allowing companies to use cryptocurrencies to complete international transactions, reducing the risks associated with currency conversion and exchange rate fluctuations.
• In the long run, this transformation may further digitize the global economy and make supply chains more efficient and transparent.
8. The emergence of national-level CEXs, and the accelerated compliance progress of major CEXs, which may become national economic pillars
Taking Binance as an example, it has been forced to relocate its headquarters multiple times in the past, all because of the uncertain policies of the host country. With the United States taking the lead in defining the compliance of cryptocurrencies, a company that can attract global capital like a printing press will definitely become a lucrative business.
Exchanges like Bybit, Bitget, etc. that are currently well-known may be recruited and funded by various countries.
And the unimpeded global circulation of cryptocurrencies may also make many countries unwilling to see their domestic assets flow out in vain, so the establishment of domestic CEXs, similar to stock exchanges, may be a natural choice. Supporting domestic Web3 innovations, providing fiat in-and-out and KYC verification, and combining with the country's own conditions to carry out financial innovations, there is a chance for national-level CEXs to establish their own territory.
9. The emergence of a new global-level Ponzi scheme
If the previous MMM was the patriarch of Ponzi schemes and was the earliest to drive a large number of retail investors to accept Bitcoin, then after the global crypto legalization wave sweeps the world, new technologies, free flow of capital, and the flattening of information dissemination have already laid the groundwork for an unprecedented super Ponzi scheme.
If the global-level MEME is Doge, then an equally powerful Ponzi scheme will bring a terrifying wealth effect. Imagine if more sophisticated and mature schemes like STEPN or Axie, with over 50 million or even 100 million players, what kind of effect would that have.
The above are all my own personal guesses, written as they come to mind, but Trump's ascension to power has indeed brought a glimmer of hope to the once-confused industry insiders, and the Mass Adoption of crypto has the best chance of happening in these four years. This post can be reviewed after Trump's term ends to see which predictions can be realized and which are just naive fantasies.
Anyway, I hope we can all make a killing in this era of prosperity.
