Metrics Ventures' November Market Observation Guide for the Encrypted Secondary Fund:
1/ The disorderly consolidation that has lasted for 7 consecutive months in the market has finally come to an end, and the price behavior before and after the election results have clearly written out the liquidity dilemma in the market and the increasingly powerful pricing power outside the market, as the trading behavior of the past cycle is increasingly constrained by the change in the macro environment, and the market has given a clear answer to all participants.
2/ From the perspective of the market, the various operations of Altcoins are subject to the obvious lack of liquidity, and the price behavior has ended in failure. This month, the upper limit of the total market value of Altcoins in circulation is around $1 billion, and the loss of anchoring of new coin prices and the rapid rotation of the MEME sector have once again confirmed the problem of capital flow in the market.
3/ The strategy is no longer a cliché, and the future FOMC or geopolitics are not the decisive factors for the overall trend. The tide is surging, and the best strategy is to continue to accompany the industry's growth.
Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends:
As of the beginning of the month when the author started writing, the main differences from the previous monthly report are:
① The unexpected landing of the election has greatly reduced risk concerns, and Bitcoin has broken out of the new high with increased volume, although it still needs time to confirm the breakthrough, but from any technical perspective, the previous concerns should be eliminated.
② The four major geopolitical factors, the rise in long-term US bond yields, the over-Trump trade, and the liquidity risk that have been hovering over the market this month have been eliminated by half, and due to the unexpected strong government, the market may give optimistic risk premiums to various assets for a certain period of time.
③ Unfortunately, there is still no clear improvement in liquidity in the market, and this breakthrough is far behind the breakthrough at the beginning of the year in terms of momentum and sentiment, although a large number of VC coins are at the end of the March consolidation cycle, but currently it is impossible for a large-scale market to be comparable to the previous few rounds.
In the long run, the bell of the new era has already rung, and while the insights into macroeconomics, politics, military, and economics may vary from person to person, the capital operation model and future positioning of the reservoir have already been revealed. What needs to be reiterated is that the change in the capital flow path has led to the weakening of the capital correlation between BTC and Altcoins in the market, and the so-called comprehensive Altcoin season under the background of high penetration rate has only two paths left: ultra-loose liquidity and innovative gameplay beyond the level.
