Republican presidential candidate Trump announced his victory last week, and the industry generally sees it as positive. Trump's administration is expected to reduce regulatory pressure and promote BIT friendly policies, seeking to fulfill his campaign promise of making the US a global BIT center, which has stimulated the recent strong and continuous rise in BIT price, reaching a new high of nearly $82,000 today, up nearly 20% in the last 7 days.
CryptoQuant CEO Warns of Impending Bear Market
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently posted a prediction that BTC price at the end of the year may be slightly below $59,000, guessing that $58,974 will be the price, and he believes that the overheating of the futures market will be one of the main reasons for the BTC crash:
I expected corrections as BTC futures market indicators overheated, but we're entering price discovery, and the market is heating up even more.
If correction and consolidation occur, the BIT run may extend; however, a strong year-end rally could set up 2025 for a BEAR market,...
Previously, Ki Young Ju had posted a contest on November 4, offering a reward of 0.1 BTC to the CryptoQuant paid user who most accurately predicted the BTC price on Binance by the end of 2024.
Ki Young Ju shared a cyclical chart of BTC last week, explaining the reason for his prediction. He pointed out that new investors often hold BTC through BEAR markets, enduring losses, but about two years later, once the "maximum pain" phase subsides, the BTC they hold will change hands, and the current market environment is consistent with this situation.
Ki Young Ju believes that in this cycle, BTC may see a potential upside of 30-40%, but he warns that it is unlikely to see BTC experience exponential growth like the previous cycle, where it surged 368% from $16,000:
Time to consider gradual selling, not all-in buying, imo.
Analysts Generally Optimistic
However, in contrast to Ki Young Ju's bearish view, the market is generally optimistic about the future.
JPMorgan released a report last week, expecting BTC to continue benefiting from the Republican victory in the US presidential election, and its price will continue to surge for at least eight weeks, as Trump has repeatedly expressed support for the digital asset industry and raised tariffs, both of which are likely to benefit BTC.
Standard Chartered released an optimistic forecast that BTC will reach a new high of $125,000 by the end of this year and break through $200,000 by the end of next year, citing Trump's various BIT commitments, including firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and incorporating BIT into the national strategic reserve, as factors that will drive this rally.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, also believes that there are currently no signs of market overheating, and although the open interest in BTC contracts has grown, which sometimes raises concerns about volatility in the market, the current funding rate indicates that traders are OPTIMISM about the prospects of BTC, and buyers are willing to pay fees to hold long positions.
