Odaily星球日报讯 IG 市场策略师表示，特朗普当选美国总统直接导致 2025 年之前的美联储降息预期有所降低，潜在的“红色浪潮”意味着对他的减税和支出计划的抵制很小，再加上他对提高关税的立场。策略师称，“总的来说，这可能会使美联储对抗通胀的努力复杂化，我们可能预计美联储在未来的宽松过程中会更加谨慎，这表明收益率和美元走强面临上行压力。”交易员现在认为，美联储在 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性为 68%，而特朗普获胜前的可能性约为 83%。（金十）

分析师：特朗普胜选直接导致2025年之前美联储降息预期有所降低

Odaily Odaily IG market strategists said that Trump&#39;s election as US president has directly led to a reduction in expectations for Fed rate cuts before 2025. The potential &quot;red wave&quot; means little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, coupled with his stance on raising tariffs. Strategists said, &quot;Overall, this may complicate the Fed&#39;s efforts to fight inflation, and we may expect the Fed to be more cautious in future easing, which suggests upward pressure on yields and a stronger dollar.&quot; Traders now believe that the Fed has a 68% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, compared to about 83% before Trump&#39;s victory. (Jinshi)

Analyst: Trump's victory directly led to a reduction in the Fed's expectations of rate cuts before 2025

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Jupiter Asset Management stated in a report that investors are facing conflicting macroeconomic signals, which could lead to increased volatility in the bond market. The firm's investment manager said that while the US economy remains resilient, if real interest rates remain at a relatively high level for an extended period, demand may slow. Although the Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates, given the strong momentum of the US economy, the market has already lowered expectations for further rate cuts, and investment managers said, "The path of the Federal Reserve's future easing cycle is still unclear, and investors have different expectations for the pace and extent of rate cuts." (Gold Ten)

The path of the Fed's future easing cycle is still unclear, and investors have different expectations on the speed and extent of rate cuts.

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

[Important News from Last Night and This Morning (November 10 - November 11)]

Powell: Will not be dismissed due to Trump's resignation, the president has no legal authority to remove him
According to reports from JinShi, the Federal Reserve this week announced a 25-basis-point rate cut as scheduled, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.5%-4.75%. All 12 FOMC voting members voted in favor of the rate cut. The policy statement removed the language about progress on inflation and greater confidence in achieving the target, emphasizing the focus on employment and inflation risks. Fed Chair Powell said that the pace of future rate cuts will be adjusted based on economic conditions, there is currently high uncertainty, and it is not appropriate to provide too much forward guidance, but they will gradually move towards a neutral policy stance. He also said that the election will not affect the Fed's near-term policy decisions, and he will not be dismissed due to Trump's resignation, as the president has no legal authority to remove him. It is reported that Trump's election has led traders to reduce bets on further Fed rate cuts next year, and it is expected that there may be 1-2 rate cuts in the first half of 2025 before a pause.

Later news, Musk may support Trump to intervene in the Federal Reserve.

The HKSAR government will sign contracts with the third batch of key corporate partners, covering areas such as fintech and AI
According to the official Weibo account of the Greater Bay Area Voice, the Financial Secretary of the HKSAR government, Paul Chan, said today that the government will hold a signing ceremony with the third batch of key corporate partners tomorrow. This time, there are 17 key enterprises participating in the signing, from the mainland, the US and Europe, engaged in areas such as AI and big data, life and health technology, fintech, advanced manufacturing and new energy technology. 90% of them have planned to set up international or regional headquarters in Hong Kong. Together with the first two batches of key corporate partners, a total of more than 60 key corporate partners are expected to bring HK$42 billion in investment and create over 17,000 job opportunities to Hong Kong.

Musk may intervene to suggest Trump adopt a more relaxed alternative to the Biden administration's AI executive order
According to Fortune magazine, as the US election results have been finalized, Musk's support for Trump has yielded an obvious immediate return on this bet that was seen as a gamble by the outside world. Musk may try to persuade Trump to abandon his opposition to the Biden administration's electric vehicle tax credit policy, and encourage the purchase of electric vehicles. After Trump's victory speech, Tesla's stock price rose sharply. Investors expect the Trump administration to stop federal investigations and enforcement actions against Tesla, especially those related to its autonomous driving software. 
In addition, the relationship between the Federal Aviation Administration and SpaceX has been very tense. In September, Musk demanded that FAA Administrator Steve Dickson resign, because SpaceX was fined $630,000 for rocket launch violations. Musk said he plans to set up a government efficiency department (DOGE) under the Trump administration, with a work plan that includes relaxing regulations on its rocket launches. Trump himself has also suggested using Starlink's satellite service to provide internet connectivity in rural areas as part of the government's future $42 billion broadband investment plan, which could be a potential financial boon for Starlink.

Important information from last night and this morning (November 10-November 11)

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 2-notch rate cut on September 19, lowering the interest rate to 4.75% to 5%, the first rate cut since 2020. In November, it announced another 1-notch cut, lowering the interest rate to 4.5% to 4.75%.

Before the Fed's rate cuts, the US benchmark interest rate had remained at 5.25% to 5.5% for nearly a year, with the aim of bringing down the persistently high inflation rate. After long-term efforts, the US inflation rate has indeed shown a significant decline.

According to <CRO>, ...