Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 24.3%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 75.7%（CPI 公布前分别为 37.9%、62.1%）。到明年 1 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 16.5%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 59.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 24.3%。（CPI 公布前分别为 26.5%、54.9%、18.6%）。（金十）

美国CPI公布后美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至75.7%

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Odaily&quot;, the probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by December is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.7% (before the CPI was released, they were 37.9% and 62.1%, respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 16.5%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 24.3%. (Before the CPI was released, they were 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6%, respectively). (Jinshi)

After the release of the US CPI, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December rose to 75.7%

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Traders have increased their bets on the Fed's rate cut in December. Traders are now pricing in a probability of around 75% for the Fed to cut rates in December, up from 60% before the release of US inflation data. (Gold Ten)

Traders raise bets on Fed rate cut in December

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Birgit Henseler, an analyst at the German Central Cooperative Bank, said that the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate sideways in the near term and rise to 5% by the end of next year. The analyst said in a report that the fixed income market has already digested a large part of the policies of the Trump administration, which may lead to inflation. She said this also means that the Federal Reserve may end the rate cut earlier, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points in the coming months. According to data from Tradeweb, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 3 basis points intraday to 4.371%. (Jinshi)

DZ Bank: Fed may end rate cuts early

Inflation has always been a global economic issue of concern, and on the eve of the release of the US core consumer price index (CPI), which is closely related to inflation, Phoebe White, an executive director at JPMorgan Chase, recently said in an interview that the release of this CPI data may affect the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut decision in December. The market generally expects the core CPI to remain stable, but if the result exceeds expectations, it may prompt the Fed to reconsider another rate cut by the end of the year.

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October CPI will be announced: JP Morgan predicts that the FED will cut interest rates slightly at the end of the year, and the frequency of interest rate cuts will be once a quarter in 2025