Cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher pointed to the promising technical setup of TOTAL3, raising the possibility that the altcoin season cycle may be coming to an end. This analyst's view came as BTC briefly surpassed $93,000 and several altcoins showed strength, leading to an overall noticeable rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
However, when could the altcoin season actually arrive? This analysis examines other factors that could trigger or delay the expected rally.
"Altcoin Prices Rise, Market Cap Rises Above Key Resistance"
For context, TOTAL3 represents the overall market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH). Historically, when this metric rises, it can signal that a new altcoin season may be approaching as Bitcoin's dominance declines.
Deutscher's X (former Twitter) post showed the TOTAL3 monthly chart and said it had formed strong support. The post also noted that the recent rise in altcoin prices had pushed the market cap above a notable resistance level.
"TOTAL3 (altcoin index) monthly chart. The setup is really impressive," Deutscher wrote on X.
While the analyst's view may be valid, a potential obstacle to the altcoin season cycle is Bitcoin's dominance. Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that BTC accounts for.
At the time of writing, this ratio, known as BTC.D, is 61.33%. This indicates that the top cryptocurrency still has a strong influence in the market. For the alt season to begin, this ratio needs to decline. Deutscher acknowledged this on November 12.
"Bitcoin dominance continues to rise. True alt season cannot begin until Bitcoin dominance is broken," the analyst emphasized.
Altcoin Surge May Delay Bitcoin Correction
Currently, the Altcoin Season Index from Blockchaincenter, which measures whether the market is in an alt season, has dropped to 29. It was around 30 a week ago. For confirmation, at least 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies need to outperform BTC.
Despite this rise, the index remains well below the 75 threshold, and only 16 of the top cryptocurrencies have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days.
If this situation persists, BTC's price could rise to higher levels before most altcoins set new highs. However, if BTC experiences a double-digit correction, it could provide an opportunity for altcoins to thrive, potentially marking the official start of the alt season.
