Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
As President-elect Trump's second term approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have surfaced in the past few days, but the battle for the Treasury Secretary position has become increasingly intense.
According to current market expectations, the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary could be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought opinions from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one other BlackRock executive; in addition, Trump will also meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next administration.
The prediction market Polymarket has opened a guessing pool for the Treasury Secretary position, and as of around 10:00 am, the trading volume in this pool has exceeded $2 million. The currently more popular potential candidates are as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, the remaining candidates have an extremely low probability):
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
Founder of Key Square Group Scott Bessent;
CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald Howard Lutnick;
CEO of Apollo Global Management Marc Rowan;
Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;
Senator Bill Hagerty.
Currently, the market is obviously most looking forward to a person with a more crypto-friendly attitude taking control of the Treasury, which would provide a more relaxed growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will review the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the crypto industry.
Leading Candidate: Kevin Warsh
First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current frontrunner, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrencies - even earlier than Trump's attitude change.
As early as in an interview with CNBC in early 2021, Warsh stated that "in a weak dollar economic environment, BIT is meaningful as part of a portfolio."
In 2022, Warsh also invested in BTC and ETH ETFs, which are one of the main driving forces behind Bitwise.
However, Warsh's own controversy is that he has repeatedly expressed support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which the decentralized crypto industry may not be too fond of.
The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh as the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to Mar-a-Lago to negotiate, but the discussions are still ongoing.
Soros' Former Deputy: Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent, the founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy to Soros, was once seen as the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary, and his nomination probability also once led Polymarket, but after "American Protector" Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent as Treasury Secretary, his nomination probability dropped directly.
As Musk criticized Bessent "just business as usual", Bessent is seen as a more traditional person, and the Associated Press has reported that he is positioned as a "skeptic of cryptocurrencies".
However, as Trump has become increasingly supportive of cryptocurrencies, Bessent's attitude has also changed, and he stated in July: "I'm excited about the president embracing cryptocurrencies, I think it's very aligned with the Republican party, cryptocurrencies represent freedom, the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist."
The latest news is that Bessent may instead be appointed as the chairman of the National Economic Council, but this result is also not yet certain.
The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also publicly supported Trump's transition team co-chair, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, which also once led the nomination probability, but later fell back due to rumors of Warsh's impending appointment.
Lutnick himself is an absolute supporter of cryptocurrencies and can be seen as the most crypto-friendly among the major candidates.
Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages more than half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally taken the stage at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville to speak; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying BIT as a commodity similar to gold and oil, and called for clearer regulation of the crypto industry.
The $700 Billion Helmsman: Marc Rowan
The name of Marc Rowan, CEO of the asset management giant Apollo Global Management, has only recently been added to the list of potential candidates.
Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investment, he himself has rarely made any statements about cryptocurrencies. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg that "the ecosystem built around cryptocurrencies is simply amazing"; however, this year, when asked whether cryptocurrencies will play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said that this topic is "beyond his understanding".
The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives have a positive attitude towards Rowan's potential nomination, but they also believe that Rowan would be hard-pressed to give up his position as CEO of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management of $700 billion.
"Trade War" Designer: Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his attitude towards cryptocurrencies, but the market still needs to pay attention to his potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term, and he is seen as a "staunch trade protectionist", with Politico evencalling him the "architect" of Trump's tariff trade war with China, and the market is generally concerned that Lighthizer's appointment will affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.
Crypto Bill Promoter: Bill Hagerty
Republican Senator from Tennessee Bill Hagerty has a low probability of being appointed as Treasury Secretary, but as a senator, he has actually pushed forward crypto-related bills.
In October, Hagerty released a draft legislation discussion aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, and investment bank TD Cowen has stated that this draft could become the outline for future legislation in 2025.
Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump's efforts to make the U.S. a crypto hub, and in July he stated when discussing the BIT industry: "We need to make sure this happens in America."
The Regulatory Spring of Cryptocurrencies
In summary, the selection of the next U.S. Treasury Secretary is expected to surface soon. From the perspective of potential successors, apart from the ambiguous attitude of Robert Lighthizer, most of the names that have been revealed so far have a relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been plagued by regulatory difficulties, the next few years may be the most relaxed growth environment in the industry's history, and this regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.
