As the "Trump trade" trading sentiment has cooled, the US stock market has experienced a significant pullback, with the Nasdaq index closing in the red for five consecutive trading days. Initially, BTC was able to rise independently of the US stock market, but on November 14 and 15, there was also a slight pullback. However, it appears that it has found support at the 4-hour EMA20 level and is rebounding upwards, currently still above $90,000.
Most Altcoins experienced a very significant increase of 20-30% after Trump's election, but given the previous "halving" and "knee-cutting" situations, for most people, the road to "breaking even" is long and arduous. After BTC opens up upside space, will Altcoins still have a chance? Will the overall market still pull back?
VX: TTZS6308
For BTC, the closing price at 5 am on the 15th was the first time a Coinbase negative premium appeared (the last hour of the US market close). The following few hours did not see a negative premium, perhaps an occasional phenomenon, but worth noting. As the US spot buying demand weakens, BTC's upside space in the short term is limited, and 10 million by the end of the year should be the high point this year.
The real bull market will need to wait until after Trump is officially elected President of the United States and implements truly favorable measures for cryptocurrencies, that is, after 2025. It is very likely that this is just a temporary top of a small bull market, and there is unlikely to be a large-scale outbreak of the Altcoin season.
Currently, there are four possible trends for BTC:
1. The price will remain above $90,000 (maintain an oscillating upward trend);
2. The price will remain below $90,000 (confirm a range-bound market);
3. The price breaks through $85,000, forming a bottom reversal (maintain a range-bound market + long opportunities);
4. If the price confirms a break below $85,000 and is unable to recover, consider the potential for extreme pullbacks to fill the CME gap.
If BTC performs even weaker than the fourth scenario, the possibility of a cyclical bull market ending should be considered.
In the future, you will see the amazing phenomenon of BTC falling and Altcoins rising.
Let's first analyze the market from December 2021 to February 2022, that is, from now until the Lunar New Year in February.
At the end of December 2021, the overall market began to oscillate and adjust, not ending until February. Normally, when the overall market is oscillating or declining, Altcoins should crash, but that is not the case. This is because BTC has already risen significantly, and the Altcoin sentiment is just starting to pick up. BTC's market share reached its highest level and then began to fall, so we see BNB, SOL, and other quality Altcoins gradually rising.
Here, you can lay in wait for quality Altcoins that have not yet risen. For those that have already surged several times or more, you can consider reducing your positions, at least taking out your principal, and for the more conservative, you can sell them all and switch to those that have not risen.
Of course, if the future outlook is good and capital flows into the market, this will undoubtedly be positive for the future market, and will also provide a guarantee for the price decline, especially for BTC. If there is a significant short-term negative factor that causes BTC to plummet, I believe it may trigger a lot of capital to buy the dips.
If the short-term Trump victory expectation is not sustained, then we need to prepare for a pullback, referring to the market analysis. The overall market capitalization decreases, BTC and ETH market capitalization decreases, and Altcoin market capitalization increases, increasing its proportion. Based on the proportion, the market's risk appetite is gradually improving, but the current plight of Altcoins is still overly dependent on the meme sector.
According to the indicators:
1. The red line is currently approaching the short-term high point, and if it goes up further, it will produce "deviation". Based on past experience, the greater the deviation, the greater the pullback.
2. At the same time, it is observed that there may be a short pullback in the next 10 days. The current red line is 2.52, and the pullback range is around 2.35, corresponding to the current BTC price of around $82,000 (this calculated price will rise over time).
3. After this period, around mid-December, the upward trend will resume, but whether it can significantly exceed the previous high is still unknown based on the current data.
For individuals, if the cost basis is relatively low, you can ignore this short-term fluctuation. If the cost basis is relatively high, you need to make a good trading plan and reduce positions and sell in a timely manner.
It's still the same old saying, looking at the pullback does not mean being pessimistic about the future trend. With Trump in power, global monetary easing, and institutional participation, this bull market will not be small, but we need to avoid FOMO sentiment. When investing, we must be responsible for ourselves. Although you can make money in a bull market, for Altcoins, it is important to reduce positions in a timely manner and buy back at lower levels. Being able to buy more coins at the same price, why not?
