Bitcoin broke through $97,000 strongly at noon today, reaching a new all-time high of $97,662 before the deadline, up 5.58% in the last 24 hours.
Against this backdrop, TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) has soared to 61.61%, a new high since March 2021. It still has an upward momentum before the deadline, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is currently centered on the rise of Bitcoin.
When will the Altcoin season arrive?
In the cryptocurrency market, when Bitcoin is the only one leading the market, it often means that the market is still in the early stage, and the Altcoin season has not officially arrived. According to the historical cycle pattern, after Bitcoin's lead, the market funds will gradually flow to other mainstream coins (such as ETH, SOL, etc.) and small-cap tokens (Altcoins), eventually forming a full-blown "Altcoin season".
In this process, BTC.D is an important indicator to observe the rotation of market funds. Although the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise, the increase will gradually be surpassed by other currencies, causing BTC.D to gradually decline from the high level. Especially when BTC.D starts to drop sharply from the high point, it usually means that the market funds are flowing into Altcoins, which is an important signal for the start of the Altcoin season.
BTC.D reveals market rotation
Through the analysis of historical data, we can better understand the key levels of BTC.D and their correspondence with the market cycle. The following are the BTC.D levels when three major Altcoins reached their all-time highs according to CoinGecko data:
- SOL: 9.9% away from the all-time high of $259.96 on 2021/11/6, the BTC.D was around 43% at that time.
- XRP: 67.4% away from the all-time high of $3.4 on 2018/01/07, the BTC.D was around 40% at that time.
- ADA: 74.6% away from the all-time high of $3.09 on 2021/09/02, the BTC.D was around 41% at that time.
Although the time points when these tokens reached their all-time highs are different, their common point is: BTC.D was around 40%. This ratio was also the low point of BTC.D in the 2021 bull market, and in the bull market at the end of 2017, BTC.D even dropped to around 30%.
Therefore, when BTC.D falls below 50% (indicating that Bitcoin is no longer the sole leader), and further declines to the 40% level, this period may be the golden time for the Altcoin season. Based on historical experience, this is the best time to capture the explosive growth of Altcoins.
Will the MEME season replace the Altcoin season?
However, I believe everyone has felt the difference between this bull market and the previous one, with Ethereum no longer leading other mainstream coins, and MEME coins blooming everywhere. Therefore, "MEME cult leader" Murad Mahmudov recently shared the left figure, indicating that the MEME season in this cycle is the long-awaited new Altcoin season:
BTC leads => SOL catches up => DOGE rises, driving large-cap MEME coins => MEME season fully erupts
But of course, I believe Ethereum investors will still insist on the right figure, that everything will eventually rotate to Ethereum. How will it end? What do you believe? BlockTempo will continue to track and report on this.
