The Bitcoin frenzy has not subsided, and its price broke through $97,000 yesterday and reached $98,000 in the early morning today, and around 3:30 pm it reached $99,419, refreshing the historical high, and is only one step away from the $100,000 mark.
Polymarket predicts "Bitcoin will break $100,000 today" with a 79% probability
Against this background, there is a prediction market on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, with the title "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Friday?". The rules are as follows:
If any 1-minute BTC/USDT candlestick on the Binance platform meets the condition (BTC reaches $100,000) between 16:00 on November 19, 2024 and 12:59 on November 23, 2024 Taiwan time, this market will immediately be determined as "Yes".
It is worth mentioning that with Bitcoin breaking through $99,000 today, the probability of "Yes" in the prediction market has reached 79% as of the time of writing.
Current BTC data resembles the early 2020 bull market
On the other hand, according to a previous report by BlockTempo, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju tweeted yesterday with charts stating that the Bitcoin bull market has already begun, and the "Bitcoin Bull/Bear Cycle Indicator" data is similar to the early stage of the 2020 bull market.
Subsequently, Ki Young Ju stated that he had already pointed out in late May that the activity of on-chain whales was similar to the mid-2020 period, but the market performance afterwards was not as expected, which made him doubt the accuracy of the data for a while. However, the recent Bitcoin rally has made him believe the data is correct again, and the bullish trend is gradually becoming clearer.
Furthermore, Ki Young Ju further analyzed the reasons for Bitcoin's rise:
- The halving of Bitcoin block rewards has doubled the cost, and the price needs to rise to maintain miner profitability
- Many traders are shorting Bitcoin, and the market may drive the bull market through a "short squeeze"
- Based on the past halving cycle performance, Bitcoin's bull market usually starts in the fourth quarter (October-December)
Galaxy Digital CEO: Breaking $100,000 is inevitable, but beware of the risk of correction
Although the market is unanimously bullish on Bitcoin, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that breaking $100,000 is "almost inevitable", and Bitcoin may continue to rise, but will ultimately face a correction:
There is a lot of leverage in the system... the crypto community is leveraged to the hilt, so there will definitely be a correction
In addition, Novogratz warned that stocks like MicroStrategy, which leverage Bitcoin, may face even greater corrections. However, Novogratz also said he does not believe Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 again.
