Author: DC greater than C
This article analyzes and compares the trends of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoins during the bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as the timing of their rallies. It summarizes how to grasp the current and future bull market altcoin trends, with the full text exceeding 3,000 words. Reading through it requires a lot of patience, but you can scroll down to the conclusion, and I believe the full read will be rewarding. Thank you all.
After witnessing the ups and downs of various sectors in the crypto market, which is like a changing stage full of endless possibilities, the only way to keep up with the market rhythm and reap the wealth within one's cognitive range is to keep learning. As the saying goes, "one day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world," this rapid iteration is the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference only, and welcome any different opinions. Thank you. (All the price movements are based on weekly charts)
From late 2020 to the first half of 2021: 519
As shown in the image:
Phase 1 (2020.10.5-2020.12.21): BTC had a significant price increase, while ETH fluctuated upwards, and ETH was relatively weak during this phase.
Phase 2 (2020.12.28-2021.2.22): BTC had a price increase and correction, while ETH started a significant price increase with mild fluctuations.
Phase 3 (2021.3.1-2021.5.19): BTC fluctuated at high levels, while ETH started a significant main uptrend until the 519 crash when they both declined.
BTC had a big rally in the early stage, while ETH had a big rally in the middle and late stage. Let's also look at the performance of different altcoin sectors.
Platform tokens (BNB, MX, HT): Started a significant main uptrend on 2021.2.1, with early fluctuations. Meme sector: Doge had a rally towards the end of the first phase, and SHIB started a significant main uptrend in January 2021 until the 519 crash.
Layer 1 blockchains: SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET all started their main uptrends in the second phase (2020.12.28). THETA, NEAR, and INJ started in the late first phase.
Gaming and metaverse: AXS, MANA, SAND had fluctuations in the first phase and started significant main uptrends in the second phase.
DeFi: UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP all started in the second phase, with a few exceptions that had fluctuations in the first phase.
Other sectors: FIL, which was very hot at the time, and the old coin ETC, all started their main uptrends in the third phase.
Summary
In this main uptrend, BTC rallied first, reaching new highs repeatedly, while ETH was still fluctuating upwards until the middle and late stage when ETH finally caught up and then led the altcoin sectors to start their main uptrends one after another. The sectors listed here are not exhaustive, as most major sectors had very good secondary rallies, providing many money-making opportunities, especially in MEME, L1, and gaming.
Note: Most of the projects listed here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. For example, the metaverse and gaming sectors that were heavily hyped in 2021 were already listed on Binance in 2020, which demonstrates Binance's grasp of new market narratives and sectors. As for Layer 1 blockchains, this has always been a popular narrative.
The second main uptrend in 2021: July to the end of 2021
As shown in the image, from July to November 2021, the main uptrend saw BTC and ETH rally together. The altcoin sectors mentioned earlier also experienced significant rallies, which should still be fresh in the memories of those who went through it.
Meme sector: Although Doge did not have a big rally in the second half of the year, SHIB rallied 10x after the 519 crash, and the meme sector also saw the emergence of many good projects like BABYDOGE and FLOKI.
Layer 1 blockchains: AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, and others reached new highs in the second half of the year.
Gaming and metaverse: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, and others reached new highs.
DeFi sector: Basically went quiet in the second half of the year, with no new hype-driven rallies.
Other sectors: FIL, the old coin ETC, and BCH did not see new hype or rallies.
Summary of the 2021 bull market altcoin performance:
Macro background: 2021 was a period of monetary easing after the 2020 US election, with the largest liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve since 2008 due to the pandemic. In this macro environment of abundant liquidity, BTC rallied from $10,000 in October 2020 to nearly $69,000, a 7x increase, while ETH rallied from $340 in October to over $4,870, a 14x increase.
As for altcoins, there was indeed a broad-based rally in the first half of 2021 before the 519 crash, but in the second half of the year, many sectors went quiet and started to siphon off market liquidity.
PS: Let's define "broad-based altcoin rally" as 5-10x and over 10x gains. In that case, the rally rate was around 70% or more. Certainly, many participants expected to make 10x gains in the bull market, but that was not the case. Okay, let's define 30x and above as a broad-based altcoin rally, then the rally rate was at most 20%.
Only the Layer 1, gaming, metaverse, and meme sectors remained consistently hyped. As for DeFi, there were actually many other less popular sectors I didn't mention, such as music, fan tokens, and infrastructure, which either peaked or went dormant.
Moreover, the hot projects in the Layer 1, gaming, metaverse, and meme sectors were mostly launched and listed on secondary exchanges like Binance in 2019-2020, especially the ones listed on Binance in 2020, whether through direct listing or IEOs. So, are the sectors and projects launching and listing on Binance in 2022-2024 worth paying attention to? More on that later.
As for the projects that launched and listed on secondary exchanges during the 2021 bull market, both large and small, how many of them are still around today? Do you guys still remember them, or were you just left holding the bag?
The third main uptrend from October 2023 to March 2024
As shown in the image, from October 2023 to March 2024, the main uptrend saw BTC and ETH rally together. What about altcoins? After the bear market of 2022, new hot sector projects have launched and listed on major exchanges, such as AI, ETH L2, and modular Layer 1 blockchains, while the metaverse hype has faded.
Looking at the public chains, L2, AI, gaming, and meme sectors, in terms of the highest-gaining projects, the ranking would be: public chains = meme > AI > gaming.
Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB need no introduction.
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10x gains.
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20 meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10x and above.
AI: ARKM, WLD (loosely related to AI), 5-10x.
Gaming: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2x.
Other sectors like DeFi and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10x.
ETH L2: ARB, OP, STRK, had gains but not significant, except for METIS which had 10x.
For the other projects and sectors, the gains were not as substantial and they were not part of the hot narrative sectors.
Summary
Macroeconomic background: After the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the interest rate hike was paused in September 2023, coupled with the hype around the BTC spot ETF and its launch and trading.
The previous "water release" was balance sheet expansion, while at this point in time it is balance sheet contraction, naturally limiting market liquidity, with limited funds concentrated on the major tracks, unable to compare to 2021. So it is almost impossible for the entire altcoin track to have a broad-based rally, and the enduring hype narratives are still public chains and MEME. As for gaming, I personally think it is mainly due to the limited market liquidity, and the pump of SOL, the rise of MEME on SOL, which have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you guys remember what I said before, the projects that will be listed on the secondary exchange on Binance in 2022-2024 are worth watching. Except for the old public chains, the projects in the other tracks are basically launched and listed on the major exchanges in 2022-2023. So we need to grasp this trading experience, and see if it will continue to be validated.
Market conditions from October 2024 to the present (a personal summary of the macro background, BTC, ETH, SOL to the altcoin tracks)
I won't post the charts for the trends of BTC and ETH, and the guys also know the gains of the altcoin tracks.
The only thing that has taken off and surged in the current market is MEME. Even in L1, only SOL, SUI and the old public chains have pulled up well, the rest are dead. The good news is that today, now, at the time of my writing, ETH seems to be starting to gain momentum.
Summary
Macroeconomic background: The current cycle of interest rate cuts was initiated in September 2024, coupled with the new US president Trump, who is crypto-friendly, the balance sheet contraction is likely to be nearing the end in Q1 next year, plus the spot ETF. Although there is still no "water release", it is at least moving from tightening to easing, a new four-year period, which is very worth looking forward to.
The first wave will be from now to Q1 next year, then see if there will be a US economic recession, or other black swans, if so, then it will be another 312, followed by a situation similar to 2020-2021, at which time I will share the details.
If there is no US economic recession and a soft landing, then there will be no 312, and the subsequent will continue to play music and dance.
BTC, SOL, BNB including the new public chain SUI have already risen, driving the gains in the MEME track, the other tracks are not very active, as we analyzed before, they need the momentum of ETH, coincidentally, ETH is now gaining momentum, seemingly kicking off the second wave. (As of the time of writing, the market reaction, is it not what I said before, L1 is also exploding, this is the enduring hype narrative)
Since ETH has kicked off the second wave of the rally, given the macro background, the probability of a broad-based rally across the altcoin tracks is very high, but to choose a track that is performing well, it is worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME). As for gaming, it's not that I don't choose it, but it may lag a bit.
What the crypto market hypes is often ultimately reflected in the specific coins, so how to find and judge the tracks that the crypto market will hype next? Look at the projects listed on Binance and the news reported by major US media.
From 2022 to now, the tracks with the most project listings on Binance are public chains, MEME, L2, gaming, AI, DeFi (I don't want to write about this track, what's the matter, aren't MEME, public chains enough for you to get rich?), RWA and DEPIN (showing signs), for other tracks, it's still the same old story, if you want to get rich, MEME, L1, gaming, AI, how come you can't grasp the opportunity?
In grasping the new narratives and new tracks in the market, Binance is the industry's wind vane, coupled with Binance's liquidity capacity, this is undoubtedly.
More importantly, it is the information from the US. Without saying more, the gains of DOGE and PNUT say it all. So you must pay attention to it. As for SOL, don't forget that this is a project created by powerful US capital and market makers, in fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT and so on are all the same.
The timing and coin selection have been noted, getting on board is not difficult, but how about getting off? For any project, you need to combine the macro background of the market, the track it belongs to, the exchange it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers (the nature of the market makers), the ceiling of the same track, and the prospect of the track narrative to calculate the possible valuation. There is no project that can be pumped forever, there must be a washout, even BTC is the same, the market is against human nature, only emotional FOMO is not good, very not good.
Thank you, DYOR.
Written at the end
The above is not investment advice, but a combination of past bull market experience and continuous learning to enhance understanding of the market, so as to keep up with the market rhythm and reap the wealth within the scope of cognition. Market liquidity, changes in market makers, changes in project narratives, and especially the hype expectations of the market, all require continuous learning and improvement. This market is changing too fast.
Guys need to improve their understanding of the market and choose to grasp it. Luck can only win for a moment, but strength can last, and wealth is the reward for cognition.
I hope we can all grasp this cycle steadily, thank you all.
