Author: 0xWeilan
The market, project, cryptocurrency and other information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Squeeze up, BTC approaches the $100,000 mark
Market Summary
After consolidating for several consecutive days last week, BTC regained its upward momentum this week, recording an increase on 6 out of 7 trading days, ultimately achieving a weekly gain of 9.06%.
This week, BTC opened at $89,877.11 and closed at $98,028.18, with effective volume expansion, achieving four consecutive weeks of gains. Among them, on November 22, a new historical high of $99,860 was set, just one step away from the psychological $100,000 mark.
Expectations of crypto-friendly policies in the US, as well as continuous capital inflows, have provided both sentiment and capital support for BTC's exuberant rise.
Federal Reserve and Economic Data
The market believes that after Trump took office, the US dollar will be boosted, and the Federal Reserve's stance has also strengthened the weakening of rate cut expectations for next year, causing the US dollar index to achieve three consecutive weeks of gains, reaching a high of 108 and finally closing at 107.503. Under the expectation of a strong US dollar and the overall healthy assessment of the US economy, capital has continued to flow into the US, driving the three major US stock indices that adjusted last week to stabilize and rebound.
In the bond market, both the 2-year and 10-year yields have remained above 4.3%. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the global economy and geopolitical conflicts have led to a resurgence in gold, with five consecutive trading days of gains.
Previously, we judged that BTC would break out of its correlation with the Nasdaq, and it seems that this is becoming a reality. This week, BTC rose 9.06%, far exceeding the 1.73% gain of the Nasdaq. According to statistics, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has dropped to 0.46, the lowest level in 5 years.
The scrutiny of crypto assets, especially in the US, is undergoing a profound change, whether it is the continued inflow of BTC Spot ETFs or the unexpectedly rapid progress of the "American Bitcoin Reserve Act", which not only provides market expectations but also provides sustained capital inflows.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETFs
Both major capital channels are experiencing explosive inflows.
This week, the inflow of BTC Spot ETFs exceeded the $16+ billion scale of the previous two weeks, reaching $33.33 billion, setting a new record for the largest single-week inflow since its launch. Capital continues to flow in, and the BTC concept stocks in the US stock market, such as MicroStrategy, have also been continuously increasing in volume and rising sharply.
The stablecoin channel saw an inflow of $6.721 billion this week, the highest value since the start of this cycle. The continuous capital inflow has not only driven BTC to quickly approach the $100,000 mark, but has also started to flow into Altcoins in the latter half of the week, with various competing coins at low levels recording significant gains.
Although there is still about a week left, the capital inflow in November has already reached $10.054 billion, the highest monthly figure in this cycle. After the second half of the bull market is triggered, with the rise in asset prices and the spread of the wealth effect, the capital is most likely to maintain a continuous inflow trend.
In addition to these two major channels, according to the announcement, MicroStrategy made a BTC purchase of $4.6 billion in the previous week. This shocking scale also explains why the short-term price surge was so huge and the selling was so fierce, but why the BTC price did not see any adjustment.
Selling
In November, the BTC price surge reached as high as 42%, and both long and short positions have accumulated substantial unrealized profits. Given the proximity of the $100,000 price level, selling continued this week after last week. Over the entire week, more than 240,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, with long and short positions locking in over $700 million in profits on just November 21 alone.
However, the overall profit of short positions is still over 30%, so it can be expected that short-term selling will continue.
The good news is that over 40,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges during the week. More and more BTC is flowing into the hands of medium and long-term investors.
All technical indicators have already reached overbought levels, but the enthusiasm and capital are exceptionally fierce. We judge that there will be an adjustment, but it is difficult to determine when and how long it will last. The best strategy is still to hold long-term, as the time to exit is still far away.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and in a vigorous upward state.
END
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