Author: 0xWeilan
The market, project, and cryptocurrency information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Market Summary
After consecutive days of consolidation last week, BTC regained its upward momentum this week, recording 6 days of gains out of 7 trading days, ultimately achieving a weekly increase of 9.06%.
This week, BTC opened at $89,877.11 and closed at $98,028.18, with effective volume expansion, achieving four consecutive weeks of gains. Among them, on November 22, it hit a new all-time high of $99,860, just one step away from the psychological barrier of $100,000.
Expectations of crypto-friendly policies in the US, as well as continuous capital inflows, have provided both emotional and financial support for BTC's exuberant rise.
Federal Reserve and Economic Data
The market believes that after Trump took office, the US dollar will be boosted, and the Federal Reserve's stance has also strengthened the weakening of the expected rate cut next year, causing the US dollar index to achieve three consecutive weeks of gains, reaching a high of 108 and finally closing at 107.503. Under the expectation of a strong US dollar and the overall healthy judgment of the US economy, capital continues to flow into the US, driving the three major US stock indexes that adjusted last week to stabilize and rebound.
In the bond market, the yields of both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries have remained above 4.3%. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the global economy and geopolitical conflicts have led to a resurgence in gold, with five consecutive trading days of gains.
Previously, we judged that BTC would break out of its correlation with the Nasdaq, and it seems that this is becoming a reality. This week, BTC rose 9.06%, far exceeding the 1.73% increase of the Nasdaq. According to statistics, the 30-day rolling correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has dropped to 0.46, the lowest level in 5 years.
The scrutiny of crypto assets, especially in the US society, is undergoing profound changes, whether it is the continuous inflow of BTC Spot ETFs or the unexpectedly rapid progress of the "American Bitcoin Reserve Act", which not only provides market expectations but also provides continuous capital inflows.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETFs
Both major capital channels are experiencing explosive inflows.
This week, the inflow of BTC Spot ETFs exceeded the $16+ billion scale of the previous two weeks, reaching $33.33 billion, setting a new record for the largest single-week inflow since its launch. Capital continues to flow in, and MicroStrategy, a BTC concept stock in the US stock market, has also been continuously increasing in volume and rising sharply.
The stablecoin channel saw an inflow of $6.721 billion this week, the highest value since the start of this cycle. The continuous capital inflow has not only driven BTC to quickly approach the $100,000 mark, but has also started to flow into Altcoins in the latter half of the week, with various competing coins at low levels recording significant gains.
Although there is still about a week left, the capital inflow in November has reached $10.054 billion, becoming the highest month in this cycle. After the second half of the bull market is launched, with the rise in asset prices and the spread of the wealth effect, the capital is most likely to maintain a continuous inflow trend.
In addition to these two major channels, according to the announcement, MicroStrategy made a $4.6 billion BTC purchase in the previous week. This shocking scale also explains why the short-term price surge was huge and the selling was fierce, but the BTC price did not adjust.
Selling
In November, the highest BTC increase was close to 42%, and both long and short positions have substantial unrealized profits. With the $100,000 price level approaching, selling continued this week after last week. Over the entire week, more than 240,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, with long and short positions locking in over $700 million in profits on just November 21 alone.
However, the overall profit of short positions is still over 30%, and it can be foreseen that short-term selling will continue.
The good news is that more than 40,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges over the week. More and more BTC is flowing into the hands of medium and long-term investors.
All technical indicators have become overbought, but enthusiasm and capital are unusually fierce. We judge that there will be an adjustment, but it is difficult to determine when and how long it will last. The best strategy is still to hold long, and now is far from the time to exit.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and in a vigorous upward state.
EMC Labs was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring welfare to humanity.
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