Author: Nanzi, Odaily Planet Daily
Last month, the MEME trading platform Moon became popular, and the community claimed that it had solved the "last mile" problem of MEME tokens and had a strong listing effect. In our article "Promoting the MEME Trend Indicator, Does Moon Really Have a Listing Effect?", we verified through backtesting that the listing effect of Moon is extremely short-lived, only effective in the 5-minute period, and there is no medium and long-term beneficiary effect, which is inconsistent with the community's propaganda.
However, last week, after CHILLGUY was launched on Moon, its market value increased from $16 million to $200 million in one day, and reached a market value of $500 million four days later.
To explore whether Moon has reversed the basic rule of "short-lived listing effect", we reviewed the rise and fall data of the tokens launched on Moon in the past week, with the aim of verifying the accuracy of the conclusion again.
Short-term listing effect enhanced, long-term still ineffective
In the previous article, we concluded that the 5-minute rise of Moon is obvious, the 1-hour stage is slightly differentiated, and after 4 hours, the differentiation begins, and most of them eventually return to zero.
The 5-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, 24-hour and current gains of the 11 tokens launched in the past week are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the average 5-minute gain has risen from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6%, and most of them can maintain this gain in the 1-hour stage. This indicates that the 5-minute gain of Moon has likely become the domain of "quantitative announcement bots", and the 5-minute gain is almost entirely brought about by bot news arbitrage.
Extending the time, the rise and fall begin to differentiate, and most of them continue to decline, with some tokens already approaching zero, except for CHILLGUY.
Detailed data display
The 5-minute rise and fall of Moon is shown in the figure below, in this figure we have added the closing market value 1 minute before the token was launched as a comparison, which clearly shows that the 5-minute gain of the token is negatively correlated with the initial market value, the larger the market value, the more difficult it is to rise, or it further verifies that this stage of gain is brought about by news arbitrage bots.
The 1-hour gain of the tokens is shown in the figure below, and most of them maintain the original gain, which the author speculates may be due to the turnover between bots and real users.
The 4-hour and 24-hour gains and losses are shown in the figure below (except for the excessively large gains of CHILLGUY), and the gains and losses of each token begin to differentiate, but most of them "break the issue price" and continue to decline, and by the 24-hour stage, 6 out of 10 tokens have declined, the 24-hour gain is -2% excluding CHILLGUY.
The gain from the token announcement to the present is shown in the figure below, and the average decline, excluding CHILLGUY, is 41.5%.
In summary, it is very clear that CHILLGUY is just an exception in the Moon listing, the "short-term listing effect" of Moon has been enhanced, but only the arbitrage bots can profit, while the "medium and long-term wealth creation effect" still does not exist.
