Bitcoin breaks new high to 93,905, when the Trump effect and the crypto sentiment FOMO are gradually cooling down, who is this "ghost hand" that is reversing the surge? It is not the conspiracy of a mysterious buyer, but the micro-strategy (MicroStrategy) that has been steadfastly believing in the long-term value of Bitcoin through the bull and bear markets.
On the 18th, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced that the company has newly purchased 51,780 bitcoins, with a total value of about $4.6 billion, at an average purchase price of $88,627. As of November 17, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 331,200 bitcoins, with a total investment of about $16.5 billion.
When the market is hot with MEME, MicroStrategy is investing in Bitcoin; when MEME PVP is raging, MicroStrategy is investing in Bitcoin; when AI Agent is opening a new way to play with LLM models, MicroStrategy continues to invest in Bitcoin. You can see that at different price levels, MicroStrategy is continuously buying in. It has grown from an obscure risk asset manager to a towering tree that influences and determines the direction of Bitcoin, just like that silent student in your class who focused and steadfastly studied and grew, and eventually became a role model that influenced the learning atmosphere of the class and the eyes of teachers and parents.
Is Bitcoin a good asset? MicroStrategy's 4-year Bitcoin investment experience has proven that from August 2020 to the present, the MicroStrategy stock price has risen by more than 2500%, and Bitcoin has risen by 660% during the same period. With the dual benefits of rising MSTR stock price and Bitcoin, MicroStrategy has become the focus and learning object of many listed companies and financial institutions.
To understand a good asset, you first need a certain basic knowledge. One of the important reasons why many people hold good assets is that they have a misunderstanding of long-term holding, or their long-term holding is affected by short-term trading, and they easily confuse the two concepts.
There are two key points to holding high-quality assets for the long term: one is the long term, and the other is rational and emotional cognition. The cognition formed when buying will also affect the cognition and emotions when selling.
There are two important factors for holding good assets for the long term: one is to make money within the scope of cognition. If you have already figured out and realized the long-term product roadmap, should you sell it at this time? The answer is not necessarily. Some people can make money within this cognitive part, while unlucky people may not be able to make money beyond their cognition. On the other hand, the real wealth is often non-linear, and may exceed everyone's initial cognition. As investors, we need to be able to withstand this surprise, rather than using the limited rationality of 10 years ago to predict the future. On the contrary, we need to build this asymmetry to embrace the benefits of the future. So how do we embrace the benefits of the future? After owning the asset, we need to understand its characteristics, acknowledge that it is a good asset, and believe that its performance will exceed our imagination.
Is it okay to re-leverage after selling at a high price?
Re-leveraging itself is more difficult than finding a good asset. Many people around us who hold Bitcoin have sold part of their profits, and few people can buy back after selling, let alone re-leverage to buy back. Re-leveraging is to put a very large proportion of assets into a certain asset type, which is a challenging thing in itself.
Re-leveraging is more of a psychological problem, and also includes cognitive problems, such as if it is to increase leverage along with monopoly, then naturally the previous price will not be a concern, because the monopoly leverage has been decoupled from the price. If you have sold before, re-leveraging will be very painful, especially for many people, correcting mistakes is very difficult. Many people think that investment is just investment, but there are also desires to prove themselves and solve life troubles behind investment. Sometimes to make good investment decisions, you need to first solve this desire or the psychological problem behind it. If you are driven by a strong desire from the beginning, it is difficult to make rational investment decisions.
The difficulty of re-leveraging after selling at a high price lies in facing mistakes, which not only means simply acknowledging mistakes, but also needs to reconstruct the underlying logic. Secondly, the attitude towards mistakes is also a problem, because some people will associate it with personal image, feeling that admitting mistakes is very embarrassing. Some ordinary people think that making mistakes is shameful, but smart people think that not having the ability to correct mistakes is more shameful.
The only means to create new knowledge is conjecture and refutation, in which we eliminate those wrong conjectures, and the remaining conjectures are relatively correct. This means that the process of making mistakes is inevitable, but it is also the only path for us to find new knowledge.
