Odaily星球日报讯 民生证券表示，明年年中美联储暂停降息的概率上升。失业率维持低位，加之通胀下行受阻，明年美联储可能还有降息 2 至 3 次，下半年或暂停降息。小概率情形下，关税和移民政策力度过猛可能会导致美股下跌、美国经济显著下滑，那么明年可能有更多降息。（金十）

机构：明年年中美联储暂停降息的概率上升

Odaily Odaily Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Fed suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. The unemployment rate remains low, and inflation is blocked. The Fed may cut interest rates 2 to 3 times next year, and may suspend interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In the unlikely event that tariffs and immigration policies are too strong, the US stock market may fall and the US economy may decline significantly, so there may be more interest rate cuts next year. (Jinshi)

Institution: The probability of the Fed suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year increases

PANews November 30 news, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the market ended the week with a certain degree of sluggishness, with obvious lack of liquidity on Thursday and Friday, but the US stock market surprisingly closed strongly this week, driven by technology stocks and retail stocks, the S&P index hit a new high and recorded the largest monthly gain since November 2023. Next week, US employment data will be the focus, and the key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 09:45, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November
Monday 22:45, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for November
Tuesday 04:15, Fed Governor Waller speaks
Tuesday 05:30, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams participates in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce
Tuesday 23:00, US JOLTS Job Openings for October
Wednesday 01:35, Fed Governor Koogler speaks on the labor market and monetary policy
Wednesday 21:15, US ADP Employment Change for November
Wednesday 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks
Wednesday 22:45, US S&P Global PMI Final for November
Thursday 02:45, Fed Chair Powell is invited to be interviewed at the New York Times DealBook/Summit conference
Thursday 03:00, Fed releases Beige Book
Thursday 21:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 30, October Trade Balance
Friday 00:30, 2024 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks
Friday 22:15, Fed Governor Bowman speaks
Friday 23:30, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat
Saturday 01:00, 2024 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the economic outlook
Saturday 02:00, 2024 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks

Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Data frenzy" is coming, Powell and non-agricultural data are blowing up the market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be "poured cold water"

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, said, "As we enter 2025, we may see a slower pace of future rate cuts, with the <AR> potentially cutting rates once every other meeting." Her team expects the <AR> to cut rates three times in 2025. While policymakers have differences on the specific details, Wall Street economists generally believe that the <AR>'s current rapid pace of rate cuts will not continue. According to Bloomberg data, the market currently expects the <AR> to cut rates about twice in 2025. The <AR> will release its updated forecast on December 18. (Jinshi)

Wells Fargo: Fed may cut rates every other meeting through 2025

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Societe Generale forecasts that by the end of 2025, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will rise to 4.5%, while the yield on 2-year US Treasuries will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but also stimulate the economy and increase the fiscal deficit, leading to increased demand for long-term government bonds and a rise in long-term yields. In addition, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the US government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds to address the fiscal deficit, both of which will push up yields. (Gold Ten)

Societe Generale: The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, leading to lower short-term interest rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term interest rates