Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
With the recent signs of ETH price performance and the rapid short-term rise of some Altcoins, I find that many people have started to discuss the Altcoin season topic again. Many KOLs have also seized the public's preference and are vigorously recommending various Altcoin projects through social platforms, shouting slogans of 10-50 times returns.
Now:
V God has become V God again
Some previous garbage VC coins have been added back to people's attention lists
The so-called lead-buying teachers have started to be active and show off their earnings again
Those eternal profit masters on the internet are telling you that they actually took a heavy position in the coins that have risen in the past few days in advance
And so on...
It seems that no matter how badly they were scolded in the past, as long as there are a few green candles, people's attitudes can undergo a 180-degree change. Those who previously claimed with certainty that there would be no Altcoin season in this bull market are now everywhere asking people: which coin should I YOLO now?
Coincidentally, today I saw a sentence said by Sister Hui in the group: Isn't trading just a game of ambush and waiting?
I think this sentence is very representative.
In the investment field (including the crypto market), if you want to achieve some success, you need to have a certain ability to control your emotions, and at the same time, you need to strictly form your own trading discipline. That is to say, we need to try to ignore all the FUD and avoid being directly affected by other people's emotions, but should do our own research (DYOR) and make our own understanding.
Remember that in October, we mentioned in the article that BTC might usher in a new round of upward trend. As shown in the figure below.
And with the breakthrough of the key position at that time, BTC rose by about 58% in less than 2 months, and continued to break new ATHs, reaching as high as around $100,000. However, as BTC is now re-entering a stage of consolidation, most of the people who missed out are still maintaining the same view as before BTC's rise: Bitcoin has risen a lot, it's better to wait for a pullback to buy.
I don't know how much the pullback will be in the future. But I can also foresee that even if there is a pullback in the future, most people will still not buy. This psychology is actually quite common, and we have mentioned similar situations many times in the previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. As shown in the figure below.
When not rising/falling, they curse it as garbage, when it rises, they wait for a pullback, and when it pulls back, they don't dare to buy... When not rising/falling, they continue to curse it as garbage, it's just like this back and forth. Either they always hope to buy at the lowest point (sell at the highest point), or they get stuck in a state of missing the pump throughout. And those who finally couldn't help but enter the market after missing the pump a few times often fall into a new cycle of chasing the pump and selling at the bottom...
In short, for many people, trading seems to be so agonizing, and then they end up destroying their mentality or losing their principal in this endless agonizing.
Just as we mentioned in the previous article (December 1st): even if I openly tell you now that BTC and ETH are still in an upward trend overall, to be honest, for many people, participating now is most likely to not be able to hold on, or to fall into the trap of chasing the pump and selling at the bottom. Unless you already have very good self-risk management capabilities and can strictly manage your positions and set reasonable targets.
And the target setting is divided into two types, many people always like to set the "profit-taking" target, while ignoring the "stop-loss" target. Remember, no one can achieve eternal profits in the investment field, you always need to leave a Plan B for yourself.
These days, with the rise of some Altcoins, the FOMO sentiment of many people seems to have risen again. As shown in the figure below. Those who were previously underwater may be considering whether to withdraw the principal. And those who missed the pump and at the same time despise the high prices of BTC or ETH may be looking everywhere for a new wealth code.
Remember that in the previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside, we have shared an Altcoin Season Index indicator with you. As shown in the figure below.
From the reflection of this Altcoin Season Index, it has reached the highest level since January 2024, which means that the gains of many Altcoins are starting to outpace Bitcoin again, and a new round of Altcoin season seems to have begun. As shown in the figure below.
In fact, for the Altcoin season, in the previous period, many people were not optimistic about it, and even some big shots said that there would be no Altcoin season in this bull market. But this may still be a problem of understanding. It can only be said that if you want to see the "all coins flying" Altcoin season like the previous bull market, the chance may be slim, but as long as the hype timing is right, there are still some Altcoins (too many new projects have emerged in this cycle, maybe only 15-20% of the Altcoins have a chance) that may be able to pump people in the short term. As shown in the figure below.
And due to the issue of liquidity, the performance of the Altcoin season is often reflected in the rotation of sectors. If we simply look at the historical experience, the general direction is:
First, traditional high-cap tokens will see a rise, such as relatively representative XRP, ADA, DOT and other so-called old coins, their rise often represents the possible start of the Altcoin season.
Secondly, it is the pump of some "representative" new projects and relatively low-cap projects, the whales have completed the accumulation of positions before, and when the right time comes, they will pump the prices and create greater FOMO sentiment to attract the retail investors. Of course, some high FDV new projects still need to pay attention to the unlocking issue.
Finally, it is the entry of various celebrities/business representatives with their "own retail investors". In the previous bull market, the main entry was the issuance of various NFTs, the launch of chain games and the metaverse, and in this bull market, it is most likely to be the issuance of memes.
As for the very end, perhaps it will be the same as the historical pattern, after the big bull market, there will only be a mess and a group of bagholders left on the mountain. However, in the above process, there are indeed a lot of wealth opportunities, it's just that this kind of opportunity is often only grasped and safely exited by a small part of the people.
Of course, historical experience cannot fully represent the present and the future, and is only a reference for new possibilities. Therefore, if you want to participate in the above process, you should think clearly about a few questions in advance:
Are you entering this field with an investment mentality? Or a speculative mentality? Or a gambling mentality?
How much time and energy are you willing to devote to this field? Such as learning, data research and other aspects?
What is your goal in this field? 1x? 10x? Or 100x?
Are you investing in the short-term, medium-term, or long-term? How do you define short-term or long-term?
What is your risk appetite? Are you inclined towards high-cap, mid-low cap, or low-cap projects?
Do you blindly believe what others (KOLs, etc.) say and trade accordingly, or do you already have your own investment strategy or logic?
What indicators do you currently use to assist your trading and avoid emotional trading?
If you get stuck in some projects, what is your Plan B?
Ultimately, the market is always changing, but human nature seems to never change. Our task is to try to grasp the cyclical patterns within and use them to our advantage. In a cycle, some can make quick money and big money, which means that some must lose money. In this market, perhaps only 1% of people can truly make money. As the market continues to change, V God can become V Dog, and V Dog can also become V God again, but gamblers will always be gamblers (the wording here is just a quote, I do not intend to disparage anyone, please do not take it personally).
Note: The above content is a personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article are not directly related to me (I do not accept any advertising from project parties). Please evaluate the safety of the corresponding projects or websites yourself. Investment always has risks, don't get into what you don't understand, and don't play what you can't afford to lose.
