Several ways to make money in the big trend of the cryptocurrency market:
1. Beta strategy: Take a large position or cross margin position in the early stage of the trend, such as BTC, SOL, ETH, BNB, etc. Don't hesitate when the trend starts to rise, because the risk of taking a cross margin position in major cryptocurrencies is not high. The key is decisiveness (whether you dare to take a large position when you see the trend starting to rise).
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2. Alpha strategy: Select the leader or runner-up of potentially strong sectors based on fundamentals, major events, and cyclical narratives. This requires vision and patience: vision determines whether the selected sector is strong, and patience determines whether you can withstand the volatility and hold on. All strong targets seem inevitable in hindsight, but the actual process is usually turbulent, and it's easy to be washed out. The risk is misjudgment, failing to outperform the market in a major downtrend, and experiencing greater drawdowns when the tide recedes.
3. Super-alpha approach: Rotate between different sectors as the trend emerges, starting with a large position in BTC, SOL, and then switching to ETH, including some high-beta strong small-cap sectors. This requires higher skills: familiarity with the rotation patterns in the cryptocurrency market, sensitivity to short-term strong narratives, and certain technical analysis capabilities to identify strength and weakness through volume, price, and patterns. The risk is mistiming the market, neglecting one aspect while focusing on another, and being whipsawed.
4. The highest returns this round are in on-chain investments, although the win rate is low but the payoff is huge. However, one can only take a small position to explore the upside. Vision, patience, execution, and discipline are all essential. To be honest, even experienced players often don't succeed, it requires top-tier players. The above are mainly spot market strategies, without mentioning contracts or leverage. In my opinion, contracts are amplifiers, and the discipline required for contracts is the highest. They can amplify both profits and losses, so I don't recommend everyone to do it. If you make a mistake and don't stop loss in time, a big price swing can wipe out your position.
Of course, for most people, the large-capital beta strategy should be the anchor, and then allocate a portion of the capital to alpha and super-alpha strategies. Small capital can focus on the second and third types of strategies. Essentially, it comes down to considerations of win rate, payoff, slope (time horizon), and position size. The challenge in the current cryptocurrency market is that the cyclicality of alpha and super-alpha strategies is very strong, and they are essentially enhanced versions of the trend. When the overall market is in an uptrend, there is still alpha, but once the market trend reverses, the drawdown speed and magnitude of all alpha strategies may be very large, as they are fundamentally driven by liquidity and sentiment, without strong fundamentals, it is difficult to go against the trend.
The final breakthrough in price requires the catalysis of external conditions. Continuous capital inflow is the material support for the bull market. After BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark, the Altseason will gradually open up. After the Altseason opens up, the market will gradually show: 1. ETH hits a new all-time high; 2. The market rallies across the board; 3. The market's main line narrative is gradually recognized.
The $100,000 price level may become a key node for Bitcoin to break through this cycle. With the continuous influx of institutions and the steady growth of market demand, when Bitcoin's price approaches this important psychological level, it may attract more widespread market attention and participation, thus propelling it into a new stage.
However, institutions often hesitate before such important nodes, and this wait-and-see attitude may lead to a certain degree of volatility and adjustment in the market after a smooth run, especially in the short term, with increased price volatility, putting some pressure on the market.
Furthermore, it needs to be clarified that there are fundamental differences in the cost structure and investment objectives between institutions and long-term holders in the Bitcoin market. Long-term holders often hold Bitcoin with a lower cost basis and a longer-term perspective, aiming to achieve value growth in the future. The entry of institutional investors, especially those who announced their allocation to Bitcoin at relatively high levels, may face higher entry costs and a more complex market environment, including stock prices.
Looking back at the bull market peaks in previous years, we can see that many institutions joined the market at the price highs, and may ultimately face the risk of price corrections. Therefore, in the current market environment, although the participation of institutions has brought new momentum to the Bitcoin market, investors should remain vigilant, carefully assess market risks, and avoid blind pursuit of high prices.
