Author: flowie, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Early Chinese New Year! The prediction has become a reality, with less than 20 days to 2025, Bitcoin has broken through $100,000, reaching a new milestone, and history is constantly being updated.
Since the election of the new US President Trump, Bitcoin has surged 33% from $75,000 to $100,000 in just one month.Compared to $46,000 at the beginning of the year when the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, the Bitcoin price has more than doubled.
And the $100,000 all-time high may just be the new starting point for Bitcoin.In 2024, Bitcoin has created multiple historical records under the joint efforts of Wall Street, Trump and others. And crypto assets, led by Bitcoin, may further bridge the gap with the mainstream world.
Creating multiple historical records! Reviewing the milestone moments of BTC's new highs
The first historical record for Bitcoin in 2024 was the official large-scale entry of the Wall Street army. After a decade of tug-of-war with US regulators, on January 11th, 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs from traditional asset management giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, Grayscale and emerging capital were finally approved.
On the eve of the approval, Bitcoin had already started, becoming the vanguard of this bull market.On December 4, 2023, Bitcoin broke through $40,000, reaching the highest price since May 2022, and surpassed Berkshire Hathaway to return to the top 10 global assets by market value. This is nearly 50% higher than the $28,000 reported by crypto media Cointelegraph when it mistakenly reported the approval of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin spot ETF a month and a half ago.
Within a month of the approval, although major institutions increased their holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs, Grayscale's reduction also caused Bitcoin prices to fall below $40,000 at one point, raising market doubts about the effect of Wall Street ETFs.Until February 13, Bitcoin finally broke through the $50,000 mark, reaching a new high since December 2021.
But Wall Street soon proved its strength. Less than a month later,on the evening of March 5, the Bitcoin price broke through the $69,000 mark, creating the latest historical high since the first Bitcoin block was created in January 2009.
However, what many crypto users did not expect was that after Bitcoin hit a new high, it immediately plunged, falling below $60,000, with over 300,000 people liquidated and $1.2 billion evaporated within 24 hours.
From March to November, Bitcoin has been trading sideways around $53,000 to $70,000 for nearly 8 months.
During this period, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 20. Trump's continued use of the crypto card as a presidential candidate, his participation in the Bitcoin conference, his promise of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the Fed's announcement of a rate cut in September all brought positive news for Bitcoin's new uptrend.
But the uncertainty of the election, as well as negative factors such as the huge compensation in Doongheogoo and the reduction of BTC by several governments represented by Germany, have prevented Bitcoin from breaking through the resistance and even caused it to fall multiple times.
Until the election results became clearer, on November 6, Trump was successfully elected, and Bitcoin embarked on a path of continuous historical highs. It is worth mentioning that the prediction platform Polymarket, actively participated by crypto users, has always been ahead of the poll predictions, with Bitcoin breaking through the $70,000 resistance level a week before the election results, and breaking through $75,000 just a few hours before the final results were announced.
The subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices may exceed the expectations of most of the market. In addition to the implementation of crypto-friendly policies in the US, governments in countries other than the US, such as Poland, have mentioned Bitcoin reserve strategies, and listed companies intend to emulate MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, as well as the listing of Bitcoin ETF options, which may provide momentum for the rapid growth of Bitcoin.
Broke $80,000 on November 10; Broke $90,000 on November 13;Broke $99,000 on November 22, just a step away from $100,000.
After that, Bitcoin oscillated below $100,000 for nearly two weeks, until today it broke through $100,000, and we witnessed history again!
Review of those Bitcoin prophets
It's hard to say when the consensus that Bitcoin will break $100,000 by the end of the year began. But before the election, institutions or their analysts represented by Standard Chartered Bank and Matrixport predicted that it would break $100,000 or even reach $125,000 by the end of the year, seemingly providing a reference for market expectations.
In July 2023, Matrixport released a report stating that its price model shows that Bitcoin's price will soar to $125,000 by the end of 2024.
Markus, a researcher at 10X Research and an analyst at Matrixport, also mentioned in a media interview this February that based on data from the past three presidential elections, he expects Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of this year or the beginning of next year. It's worth mentioning that Markus had also previously predicted that this bull market would be a Bitcoin bull market rather than an Altcoin bull market.
In addition, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick also predicted in a report released at the end of 2023 that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and later predicted multiple times that after Trump's election, Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 by the end of 2024. However, Geoff Kendrick has also been overly optimistic at times. He had previously stated in June that Bitcoin would break $100,000 before the election.
Institutions such as VanEck and ARK Invest also predicted that Bitcoin would break $100,000 by the end of the year before and after the election.
Analysts such as Lennix Lai, the Global Chief Commercial Officer of OKX, Josh Gilbert, the Market Analyst of eToro, Pav Hunda, the Chief Market Analyst of SwyftX, Guy Armoni, the Executive Partner of HDI Fund, Ben Simpson, the CEO of Collective Shift, and Tom Wan, an independent analyst, have all stated that Bitcoin will break the $100,000 mark by the end of 2024.
At the end of November, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor initiated a Twitter poll on whether Bitcoin would break $100,000 before the new year. Currently, 59,073 users have participated in the poll, with an approval rate of 85.2%. In a recent interview, Saylor also predicted that Bitcoin would reach six figures by the end of this year, and he said: "I'm planning a '$100,000 party', which may be held at my house on New Year's Eve."
I believe that at this moment, including Saylor, the people in the crypto circle have already popped the champagne to celebrate.
What is the significance of Bitcoin breaking $100,000? How much more upside potential is there?
After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin may become the reserve asset that governments, mainstream finance and companies around the world are competing for more quickly. Zaye Capital Markets analyst once stated that under Trump's leadership, Bitcoin may become the "ultimate digital gold".
Recently, CZ commented on MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor's speech, mentioning that "countries will compete to print money to buy Bitcoin, that is, Bitcoin strategic reserves. No one wants to be the last one."
Trump's former crypto assistant David Bailey believes that nation-states are about to enter the Bitcoin market, and predicts that sovereign wealth funds and central banks will invest billions of dollars each month.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated that with US debt reaching $35 trillion, if central banks around the world use Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050.
At the same time, with MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy demonstration, more and more companies are following suit as Bitcoin continues to hit new highs. On the eve of the election, Microsoft shareholders also held a preliminary vote on whether the company should invest in Bitcoin.According to recent statistics from Cointelegraph, more than 60 listed companies have adopted Bitcoin strategies, and thousands of private companies are also following suit.
Furthermore, from a regulatory perspective, the breakthrough in Bitcoin's price may prompt governments around the world to accelerate the formulation of clear cryptocurrency regulations. Stricter regulations may increase compliance costs, but they will also improve market transparency and attract larger capital inflows.
Although the market is very optimistic about the long-term value of Bitcoin. In the short term, however, whether $100,000 as a key psychological area and the policy benefits after the general election have been fully digested, how much room for growth will Bitcoin have, especially in 2025?
The market currently seems to remain optimistic. Matrixport's latest report forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by December 2024, and Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam said in a report that many traders believe Bitcoin's price could reach $150,000 by the first quarter of 2025.
BCA Research also believes that after Bitcoin first approaches the $100,000 mark, it may still double in value. And it forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Standard Chartered and Bernstein analysts have also predicted that Bitcoin's price could reach as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has even boldly predicted that BTC could reach $1 million.
Swan Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan believes that Bitcoin's price continues to be driven by a series of factors, including improved liquidity conditions, increased institutional adoption, and a regulatory environment that has shifted from headwind to tailwind. Another term for Trump also means a larger budget deficit, potential for more inflation, and changes in the international role of the US dollar - all of which will have a positive impact on Bitcoin's price.
