BTC breaks the 100,000 mark, the altcoin sector of the crypto market rallies, and the overall market sentiment is high.
Crypto Market Summary
1. BTC broke through the $100,000 mark on December 5th, reaching a high of $103,900, and then fluctuated downward. But it is unlikely to stay in this range for too long and will continue to break upward;
2. The FMG Index shows that the DePIN sector has heated up again, and within this year, DePIN projects strongly associated with AI have seen gains of 100%-700%;
3. The further decline in the number of initial jobless claims in the US, as well as the improvement in other indicators, all point to a positive trend in the US economy, with inflationary pressures further easing, which is likely a positive reaction to the interest rate cuts;
4. Paul Atkins has been appointed as the new SEC chairman, which will be beneficial for DeFi, RWA, DePIN & AI, and MEME sectors.
I. Market Overview
1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index
The FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a DePIN quality portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, selecting the most representative 24 DePIN projects. Compared to the previous report, the NAV continued to rise, from 9.97 to 15.23. The Spot Price also continued to rise, reaching $67.85, as the large-cap, high-priced projects represented by TAO in the Index began to rise across the board. Especially for tokens like Render and LPT, we can clearly see that after two months of fluctuations, they have started to make up for the losses, which is both a symptom of the altcoin season arriving and a signal of the rotation in the DePIN sector.
1.2 Crypto Market Data
In the past November, we can see that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shown an upward trend, rising from the previous $2.45 trillion to $3.69 trillion. In terms of market share, BTC had a brief decline in November but then continued to rise, with the current dominance rate above 55%, as other ecosystem tokens such as ETH began to make up for their losses, while BTC remained below $100,000, until it broke through $100,000 on December 5th, and BTC's dominance began to rise.
Observing the trend of the open interest of BTC contracts on Coinglass, the open interest of BTC contracts on the entire network has increased to a certain extent in the past November, from the previous high of $58.5 billion to the current $65 billion, among which the 24-hour long-short ratio shows that most users were bullish on BTC in November, but after the breakthrough of $100,000, the sentiment turned bearish.
Currently, the overall BTC trend is still in the FOMO stage, and in the past 15 days, there has been a net inflow of about $4 billion into the BTC spot market, which fully demonstrates that off-market capital is still bullish on BTC, and the highest point of this BTC bull market has not yet arrived.
1.3 CPI and Other Data, as well as Market Reaction and Market Judgment
1. Macro level: In terms of unemployment, the US updated new data on November 23, with the number of initial jobless claims declining slightly from 221,000 on November 9 to 217,000. The market generally believes that under the economic stimulus policies and employment promotion programs advocated by the Trump administration, the unemployment rate is likely to decline further in the future. The CPI data for November 2024 shows that the annualized CPI growth rate in the US was 3.5%, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.6%, indicating that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat. The year-on-year core CPI rate in November 2024 was 4.1%, down from 4.3% the previous month. This further verifies the slowdown in the US inflation trend. The cryptocurrency and digital asset market may also see more positive stimuli under the policy support of the Trump administration, driving further development in related fields.
2. Crypto side: BTC broke through the $100,000 mark on December 5th, completing a new high test. This also means that BTC has officially entered the six-figure price range. However, the current market sentiment is relatively bearish, and a pullback to $90,000 cannot be ruled out.
3. Sectors worth focusing on: Paul Atkins becoming the new SEC chairman will bring positive benefits to the sector's heat. Due to Atkins' background and views on cryptocurrencies, he will likely provide a boost to DeFi, RWA (Real-World Assets), DePIN, and AI sectors involving crypto finance in the future. In addition, due to the influx of large-scale capital into the market in the past two bull markets, this round of bull market may be the first time in the history of crypto that users have embraced MEME on a large scale, as many have realized that they have missed the best opportunities for BTC and ETH in terms of life-changing returns, and can only significantly increase their risk appetite. This is also the reason why MEME will explode this round, and MEME is worth focusing on.
II. Hot Market News
2.1 BTC will not stay around $100,000 for long, and will seek further upside
On December 5th, BTC broke through $100,000 for the first time, but analysts say it will not stay at this price for long, as breaking the psychological price level is expected to attract more attention and drive the price to rise further. Derive founder and crypto analyst Nick Forster said BTC is unlikely to see much consolidation around $100,000. BTC hit a new high of $73,679 in March and then fluctuated between $53,000 and $72,000 for the next seven months.
2.2 Trump administration appoints Paul Atkins as new SEC chairman
The Trump administration has finally confirmed the nominee for the new SEC chairman, with Paul Atkins being appointed and awaiting a response. Prominent figures including the Coinbase CEO have expressed their support, believing Atkins is the best candidate, and the token RSR of the stablecoin protocol Reserve Protocol closely associated with him has risen by over 110% in 7 days.
2.3 Political turmoil in South Korea leads to over $34 billion in crypto trading volume
There is major political upheaval in South Korea, with another president set to be ousted, the sudden event has caused panic among South Korean citizens, and in the past 24 hours, the trading volume of South Korean domestic crypto spot exchanges has exceeded $34 billion, a new high. This has further boosted the price of the TRX token, as the trading restrictions on the largest exchange Upbit in South Korea may prompt traders to seek alternative assets for transferring their assets, increasing the trading volume of TRX, with a 24-hour gain of over 66%.
III. Regulatory Environment
More and more US lawmakers are starting to call for limiting the SEC's regulatory power in these areas. At a hearing attended by crypto industry leaders and tech experts, lawmakers criticized the SEC's over-regulation, highlighting concerns about the lack of transparency and adaptability in SEC regulation. 18 US state attorneys general have filed lawsuits accusing the SEC of overstepping its authority and "persecuting" the crypto industry; in addition, a US court has ruled that the SEC's sanctions on Tornado Cash were ultra vires.
There is a large regulatory gap between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the crypto and Web3 space, the SEC tends to view most crypto assets as securities, while the CFTC advocates treating them as commodities. As Web3 develops rapidly, more and more people are calling for the regulatory power to be shifted from the SEC to the CFTC, especially when it comes to DEXs and DApps. The tug-of-war over regulatory power has led to further scrutiny and challenges to the SEC's leadership and regulatory strategies.
Data sources: Coinglass, Rootdata, Coinmarketmap, X
