Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In a series of recent articles, we have mentioned the topic of market conditions and Altcoins many times, but based on some comments we've received, I still get the feeling that:
Whenever the market goes up, someone will leave a message asking where they should YOLO now?
Whenever the market goes down, someone will ask if they should immediately close their cross margin positions?
Perhaps it is because this field is still filled with speculative opportunities that ordinary people cannot experience in other fields, so many people's mentality seems to be rather restless. Whenever the market goes up, they shout "the bull is here", and whenever it goes down, they shout "the bull is gone". Whenever the market goes up, they shout "the Altcoin season has begun", and whenever it goes down, they shout "the Altcoin season is over". The result is a frenetic series of operations, and in the end, they find that their entire position has only a dead mouse left.
I have always believed that the content I have output should be quite clear, and at least the overall direction of the thinking should be helpful or inspiring to some people. But why do I keep receiving similar messages like the ones above in the background? Then I looked at the stay time and completion rate of some recent methodological series articles on the public account, and they are generally quite low. For example, an article that takes about 10 minutes to read completely (calculated at 450 words per minute), the average stay time is less than 2 minutes, and the average completion rate is basically around 30%.
The reasons for this are simply two: one is that the content we output is not attractive enough, and the other is that some people do not have enough reading patience.
First, judging from the background data, most people do not have much patience to read a long theoretical article in its entirety. However, I can fully understand this, after all, in an era of information explosion and short videos, fewer and fewer people can persistently watch the long text and images posted by a blogger.
Moreover, most people are probably also following dozens or even hundreds of similar bloggers. If we require others to spend 10 minutes reading the articles of each blogger completely, then a day would probably be gone in just a few hours... Putting myself in their shoes, I can't do this either. Therefore, any blogger (including me) has no reason (and no obligation) to insist that others must do something or complete something.
Although from the perspective of a blogger, we also hope that the content we output can be seen by more people, and that they can give a "like" or "read again" to support us after reading. But as mentioned above, many things do not need to be forced. Whether to read or not, how much to read, these are indeed the freedom of each reader.
Secondly, I have been thinking through some things. For example, in terms of content output, I will still adhere to my original intention. We will only focus on our own learning and thinking, and will not consider deliberately modifying the content to create more attraction, nor will we randomly change our own style to cater to more traffic. We will continue to choose the form of long text and images to output content irregularly. We write casually, and those who are destined to see it will see it, which may be enough.
In addition, Talk Li Talk Outside has actually provided a lot of supporting tools so far. If reading the articles still cannot meet the needs of a small number of partners, then:
For partners who have further learning needs, we have already prepared the [Talk Li Talk Outside Toolbox] for you, and provided related e-book series collections, such as "Blockchain Thinking Advanced" (about 120,000 words), "Cryptocurrency Basics Introduction" (about 80,000 words, to be released this month), and some auxiliary content including the "Quotation Collection".
For partners who have further communication needs, we have also built the [Talk Li Talk Outside Mutual Aid Group], and provided new e-book series, such as "Blockchain Methodology" Volume 1 (about 340,000 words) and "Blockchain Methodology" Volume 2 (about 280,000 words, to be released this month), as well as more auxiliary content including the "Strategy Collection".
In short, we only do what we can and are willing to do. As for how many people can see and discover what we do, and how much effective help we can bring to them, let's just be Buddhistic about it.
Often, reality is more cruel than ideals. For example, when you do something, others will think it is what you should do, and if you stop doing it one day, others will criticize you for not continuing to do it, or suddenly one day they find that you didn't do a certain point well, they will continue to criticize you for having no conscience and even directly negate all the things you have done in the past. Therefore, in any field, we should try to find those who are on the same frequency as ourselves, rather than trying to accomplish everyone. Perhaps sometimes we should learn to do one thing, and that is: let go of the desire to help others, and respect the destiny of others.
Now let's get back to the topic and continue to talk about Altcoins.
Recently, ETH broke through $4,000 but did not stabilize, but instead experienced a relatively rapid pullback, dropping to around $3,500 at the lowest. As of the time of writing, it has returned to around $3,900. Although there is short-term volatility in the price, if we look at the on-chain data and combine it with the weekly level, ETH is still overall in an upward trend.
For example, in terms of on-chain data, the inflow of ETH ETFs has been continuously increasing, and has been in a state of continuous net inflow since November 22nd, as shown in the figure below.
At the same time, investors (including whales) have continued to withdraw large amounts of ETH from exchanges in the past few weeks. I did a simple calculation, and from November 28th to the present, more than 490,000 ETH have been withdrawn. As shown in the figure below.
In simple terms, the inflow of funds, the continuous accumulation of whales, and the ETH staking we mentioned before, these most direct factors seem to be jointly supporting the prospect of ETH's price.
For example, from the K-line perspective, the MACD indicator overall still shows a good upward trend, and the position around $3,900 also still looks like a relatively good starting point. Let's see if it can continue to break through effectively.
In summary, whether ETH can break through its historical high this year, I don't know, but perhaps in the not-too-distant future, we will have the opportunity to witness this result, and this process still requires patience.
Whether ETH can break through effectively will also be one of the foundations for the Altcoin season to continue better in the future, because as the king of Altcoins, various Altcoins need ETH to have a certain performance first in order to have a better overall performance. Next, let's continue to look at the indicators.
The first is the Altseason Index
We have introduced this indicator in previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. From the current display value, this indicator has successfully broken through 75 this month (December 2nd). Although as of the time of writing, the value has dropped to 69, theoretically, we may witness the rise of some Altcoins or the creation of new glory in the next few months (short cycle). As shown in the figure below.
The second is BTC.D (Bitcoin's dominance)
Based on historical experience, when Bitcoin's dominance begins to decline, there will be a chance for a real Altcoin season. And from the current data, it seems that the overall bullish change of Altcoins is happening.
In the previous major cycle, Bitcoin's dominance reached a new peak about 1,070 days after the bottom, while this round took about 1,050 days from the bottom to the new relative high point this year, almost the same script happening again. If history continues to repeat itself, it can be said that the Altcoin season has already begun. As shown in the figure below.
The 3rd one is ETH/BTC
Based on historical experience, once BTC creates a new ATH, ETH/BTC will approach a relatively low level. As shown in the figure below.
And when ETH starts to outperform BTC in exchange rate, Altcoins will usually enter the parabolic change stage. For a long time, ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend, but from the current trend, this situation seems to be reversing, especially since ETH/BTC bottomed out in November, it has risen by nearly 30% in just 3 weeks. If the same script happens again, theoretically, ETH/BTC's exchange rate should not fall below 0.03, and based on the timeline, we may see some better performance of the Altcoin season as a whole in the first quarter of next year (2025). As shown in the figure below.
The 4th one is Total2 (total market cap excluding BTC)
Remember in the article before the talk (August 13th), we mentioned that the ideal state is that the total market cap of Altcoins will reach over $1.2 trillion or even higher in the first quarter of 2025, and then officially start a new Altcoin season. As shown in the figure below.
However, this month (December), the value of Total2 has already broken through this position and reached around $1.6 trillion, and as of the writing of this article, it is $1.55 trillion. This may also be due to the fact that BTC broke through the $10,000 mark earlier than expected, and the recent "value return" rise of some old coins.
But our view remains unchanged, that once Total2 breaks through the position of over $1.2 trillion, we believe the new Altcoin season has already begun. At the same time, our own target will not change, when the value of Total2 breaks through $2 trillion, we will consider selling the remaining Altcoin positions in batches in this cycle.
In short, the market may still face volatility in the short term, and the basic problems of Altcoins, such as high FDV and low circulation of VC coins, lack of ecological innovation, and dilution of liquidity by a large number of new projects, have not been solved. Although fundamentals often determine the price of a target, sometimes the price may not listen to the fundamentals, and once the hype is in place and people start FOMO again, as long as there is no major black swan event, the overall trend in the next few months is likely to be good.
We are currently in the spring of the Altcoin season, but don't be too greedy, don't be too aggressive, because the spring of Altcoins may also become the winter of retail investors. Living longer is more important than living well in the short term, and investing is a long-term, comprehensive practice.
Of course, the old saying still applies, different people have different positions, goals, and risk preferences, and everyone's entry and exit strategies will be different, so it is necessary to reasonably customize and plan your own entry and exit strategies. The content we have sorted out is only a simple sharing based on data and ideas, and cannot be used as investment operation advice, DYOR.
