Odaily星球日报讯 LBBW 的分析师 Elmar Voelker 在一份报告中表示，美联储下周会议上的利率决定并不像远期利率所显示的那样明确。“在我们看来，最近公布的美国宏观经济数据并没有为即将到来的利率决定提供一个明确的模板，”这位资深固定收益分析师表示。Voelker 说，从债券市场参与者的角度来看，“12 月降息并暗示 1 月暂停”与“12 月暂停并暗示 1 月降息”并没有太大区别。LSEG 的数据显示，货币市场认为下周美联储降息 25 个基点的可能性为 94%，而维持利率不变的可能性为 6%。（金十）

美联储即将做出的利率决定并不像市场定价暗示那么明确

Odaily Odaily News LBBW analyst Elmar Voelker said in a report that the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve&#39;s meeting next week is not as clear as forward rates indicate. &quot;In our view, the recently released US macroeconomic data does not provide a clear template for the upcoming interest rate decision,&quot; said the senior fixed income analyst. Voelker said that from the perspective of bond market participants, &quot;a rate cut in December and a hint of a pause in January&quot; is not much different from &quot;a pause in December and a hint of a rate cut in January.&quot; According to LSEG data, the money market believes that there is a 94% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, while there is a 6% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged. (Jinshi)

The Fed's upcoming rate decision isn't as clear as market pricing suggests

Odaily reports that following the release of higher-than-expected US PPI and initial jobless claims data, Paul Ashworth, an analyst at Capital Economics, stated: "The components of the Fed's preferred PCE measure were generally weak, and combined with yesterday's CPI data, this suggests the core PCE will rise just 0.03% month-on-month. It now looks more likely that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points next week." Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 last week, the highest level since mid-October last year, while economists had expected a decrease of 4,000 to 220,000.

Capital Economics: The Fed is more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week

Odaily Odaily News reports that in the last interest rate decision of 2024, the European Central Bank will lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, the third consecutive meeting with a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with market expectations; a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut for the year. (<金十>)

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected

Odaily reports that according to several Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Sources familiar with the matter said that the Bank of Japan's policymakers believe that while the trends in the Japanese economy and prices are in line with expectations, they should closely monitor wage trends in Japan and the global economy. The above-mentioned sources said that decision-makers are therefore unlikely to raise interest rates at the meetings on Wednesday and Thursday next week, unless there is a risk of a significant yen depreciation, which would push up import prices. The last time the Bank of Japan's decision-makers voted to raise the target for the short-term policy interest rate to 0.25% was at a meeting in July. As the December meeting approaches, there is growing concern that with the US President-elect Trump's promise to raise tariffs, the profitability of Japanese companies, especially exporters, will deteriorate. Sources said that some Bank of Japan officials said it was time to raise interest rates, but most believe the central bank should not act hastily.